One top 25 team playing tonight:
#22 S Florida
Betting is 58% on the dog with the line moving from -17 to -17-105. Models are mixed, Variables are neutral, public % slightly favors S. Florida.
Generally, when the % of betting is over 55% on the dog I take a serious look at the favorite. In this game however, nothing else points to the favorite.
In addition, ranked teams 15 and over all things being equal have a tendency to be overvalued. So, saying all that, this game a clear cut pass for me.
Thursday we had 1 play and 1 lean. We won them both.
We had an overnight on Seattle +101 winning 10-4.
In the NFL we had a lean on Houston +5.5 and they won the game outright 13-9.
Today so far I have sent out 2 plays. In addition, we now have a carryover play for Sunday in the NFL.
For those of you that are interested in the writeups I send out to subscribers on every NFL game, here is what I sent out on last nights Houston, Cinci game:
“One game tonight in the NFL:
58% Cinci -5 -5-102
Models strongly favor Houston, Variables strongly favor Houston and public % is neutral.
This game looked a lot better earlier in the week when Cinci had about 65% of the betting on them. At 42% the game falls out of the play category for me.
I would be tempted to wager on them however everytime I fudge when the numbers are in the low 40s it seems like I get burned every time.
Houston does have a lot going for it tonight. First, the total is 38. That tends to support a road dog of 6.5 which is what the NFL contest had the line at. And that is where it was at until 2 days ago.
Also, Houston got crushed by Jacksonville last week. Using the insane logic of handicapping the NFL, the worse the team does the previous week the more likely they are to cover this week. Or, looking at it the other way, if a team has a great game the previous week typically you want to avoid them the next week.
It makes sense though. First, the public typically overreacts. The books know the public will see how they got crushed and will want to wager against them. And finally, no matter how bad they looked the previous week they are still an NFL team:)
This would be a 1 unit play if the % was in the low 30s on this one.
I am going to give Houston a lean tonight. It was my 2nd pick in the contest early in the week but dropped to let’s say 4th by today.”
As you can see not only does it have some analysis but also my thoughts regarding the pros and cons of each side.
I have gotten some very good feedback from subscribers so I plan on continuing this from now on as part of the NFL subscriber information.
As I mentioned I had Houston +6.5 in the Westgate NFL Supercontest. That brings my record to 5-1 going into Sunday. Its always good to get a fast start out of the gate. Over the years I have had some incredible runs during this contest.
A few years ago I was in 3rd heading into the last 3 weeks:) But then the roof caved in. That was back when they only paid the top 10.
Now its the top 50 with 2000 entrants. About 3 million in the prize pool now less, of course, the 8% that the Westgate takes off the top. That was one of the last value added tournaments in Vegas for the NFL. Its the longest running has the most following world wide.
I guess they outlasted Binion giving away free food during the World Series:)
Enough rambling. I will update a bit later. 3 college football games tonight to look over and then a full day of college tomorrow.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks