A new week for the stock market and global markets, for the most part, are down. In addition, the U.S. market is slightly lower an hour before the open.
My reading and viewing this morning:
And finally the one required reading every weekend:
The big question here is what do you do now with the market at all-time highs?
Human nature tells us to be leery of buying here. Technical signals tell us to get long with the 8-period exponential moving average as a key area to stay above.
Myself, I am somewhere in between. However, my primary indicator is still very bullish and so far has not shown any signs of rolling over. That is the Weekly Nasdaq to SP500 chart. As long as the Nasdaq is outperforming I will not be too concerned.
This outperformance is long in the tooth however and I will keep a watch on it.
My opinion stays the same that we are looking very soon at a significant dip. Whether it is news related or reality related one never knows. Perhaps it will be both.
I suggest keeping a watch on the Fed along with Congress. They hold the key to where this market is going.
Trump’s agenda is bogged down right now and I see very little sign of it getting a revival very soon. Congress is setting new lows in not only public opinion but on what they are getting done.
Congress needs new leadership in both the House and the Senate. In addition, those responsible for the last 4 months of what is going on in Congress need to be primaried out so the country can move along to doing what is best for everyday Americans.
But, it seems that it was another era when Congress had that as a priority. They are too concerned with political intrigue and satisfying special interests both home and abroad.
So, do not expect tax cuts to rescue the economy. Do not expect health care to get fixed anytime soon. Do not expect much to be done with the U.S. crumbling infrastructure. Do not expect the Wall to get started let alone finished anytime soon.
Once this reality sets in I suspect the markets will be nosediving down. Perhaps sooner if the Fed stays on its messianic rate hike agenda.
I received an email this weekend as to when I thought this insanity might change in Congress. My response was that if Trump succeeds against the Democrats, Never Trumpers, Mainstream Media, politicized intelligence agencies and the liberal courts (a tall task), you will see a real draining of the swamp in 2020. And only then might Congress start to do its job.
Those are my thoughts to start out the week. All this means is the market is on borrowed time right now. No more than that. But picking tops and bottoms have dusted off many an investor:)
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks