# October turned out to be a great month for our plays!

4:45 Update

Series Game tonight!!

Cubs

Cleveland

Betting is 52% on the Home Dog with the line moving from Cubs -137 to Cubs -152. Models favor Cleveland . Variables are split on the game. Public betting is neutral.  Its a tough game to bet looking at what I look at. Logically I do not see much value on  the Cubs at -152 here as a road favorite. I have to think over the long run you would be a big loser taking the cubs here at that price. However all I have to go  with is the models. Everything else is neutral on the game. So I am passing.

October was a solid month for plays :

Major League baseball :   9-5 +6.73

College Football:               11-3

NFL:                                      4-2

NBA:

PreSeason 1/2 unit             8-4

Regular Season:                  0-4

NHL:                                     6-8   +0.08

That gives us a +13.71 unit gain for October. I will take that every month:)

I received the following email:

“Hello Rick,

Long time follower here. I have a group of people my wife and I meet at local dog park here in vegas, all of which watch little to no sports. The one guy that does hit a \$30 10 teamer last Sunday.  How would you explain (in short) to these people what a phenomenon it is to win that?  I tried to explain but some of the people thought it\’s a bet you can win once a year, or often. Thanks, Rick!”

My Response:

“The odds of hitting a 10 teamer are 1024 to 1. So if you bet one every week your expectancy would be to hit a winner every 19.69 years! Then consider that the casinos only pay out around 700 to 1 and you can see how much the worse of it you are taking.”

Variance can produce very unusual results. Take Fezzik winning the Hilton NFL Super Contest 2 years in a row. Assuming no skill at all and 1000 entrants the odds each year are 1000 to 1. To hit it two years in a row is about 1 million to 1 assuming 1000 entrants. And yes he did it. Now there is a bit of skill but even then with only 17 weeks of betting and 85 plays it is still a longshot. But they do come in.

And remember you can be on the opposite side of the probability curve. And I have no idea what nightmare being on the opposite side of a million to 1 event playing poker.

And it’s not really a phenomenon. its merely hitting a 1000 to 1 shot.

Speaking of the Hilton NFL Contest, I went 1-3-1 this weekend. Phil losing by 6 in OT kept me from an average weekend. That brings me to 22-17-1. I have some work to do:)

For those of you wanting to join us, I can think of no better time than Nov 1st. We are in the heart of football season , NBA and NHL are in full swing.

So we will most likely be busy most days for awhile now.

If you have an interest just pick the subscription of your choice in the PayPal drop down menu. All have a 3-day free trial.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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