My website is back in operation this morning after a hectic day trying to figure out the intricacies of WordPress. Not very simple keeping your hosting company happy.
45 min before the open has the markets up slightly with the Nasdaq leading the way. Of note: Oil is off over 1%, Metals weak, financials strong, TLT unchanged.
This to me has a neutral bias. I would be looking this morning to see if oil or financials reverse. That might give a clue where the market is going.
I am flat right now and not looking to get in the market until after Thursday unless it is a short term swing. Comey testifies at 7 am which should produce some volatility in the markets. Realistically it should not but the market is very nervous right now.
Which leads me to a wager that I believe outweighs the EV on the Trump finishing his first term wager. This is about as sure a bet as your going to find in the world of gambling if you can get down on it.
Trump appointed Christopher Wray to head the FBI. If you can bet against his appointment being confirmed by the Senate, I would almost say back up the truck and unload on the wager.
Trump and his team made a critical mistake not appointing an acting director when they fired Comey. Firing Comey left McCabe in as the acting head of the FBI. McCabe is not a Trump fan and one could argue he should have stepped down from the Russia/Trump investigation as his wife was given a substantial amount of money for her campaign by Clinton.
The gist is that the Democrats along with the Never Trumpers in the Republican party could not ask for a better head of the FBI than McCabe. I am not insinuating that he is biased at all. I am just saying from an appearance standpoint they have exactly what they want.
So where is the incentive to replace him from those two groups who are actively trying to weaken and remove Trump from office?
The Democrats to a man will vote against the appointment. That leaves the Republicans to have to come up with 51 votes or only 2 not voting for confirmation. There is not a snowball’s chance in hell that the never trumpers in the Republican party will confirm this appointment.
What excuse will they all give? Wray represented Christie in Bridgegate. The headlines will be today or soon in the Post and Times that Trump is appointing someone that is obviously biased to save his skin. CNN will be broadcasting this non-stop.
This will be the new hysteria of the day starting today or shortly after Comey’s testimony.
Trump will either have to withdraw the appointment or take a beating in the Senate on the appointment. His best strategy at this point is to make everyone vote so that the voters know who in the Republican party is really anti-trump.
And, considering the screwup by the Trump team when they fired Comey by keeping McCabe in his position they have now put themselves in a box that will be next to impossible to get out of.
Combine this with Sessions recusing himself, the one-two combo of errors is going to make for this insanity to go on at least until after the 2020 elections.
I have not seen a line up yet on the wager but if you can lay less than 5 to 1 I would jump at it. If it opens at anywhere around even money back up the truck:)
What does this mean as to the markets? The Trump removal risk will be active for a long time now to spook the markets. That 350 point down day is a harbinger of things to come.
Those are my thoughts on a Tuesday morning. If your not a Trump fan these comments in no way reflect on my opinion one way or the other regarding Trump. I am a gambler and look for opportunity regardless of my political opinions. If you cannot do that then you should not be gambling!
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks