Markets are gapping higher after a scare yesterday and rebound to finish unchanged.
Yesterday showed the event risk that is in this market. And it is not a minor one.
Any news that is the wire now attacking the white house while it might have some truth to it (who knows) is going to be exaggerated and pounded 24/7.
The leaks are planned to do maximum damage and yesterday was a prime example. The market tanked sharply after the news hit only to rebound after about 10 min when it was figured out that it was not very earth shaking(arguably)
So the markets have had a chance to digest this news and we are gaping up with QQQ leading the way.
Of note, oil up strongly, metals positive, financials weak and TLT up (finally).
About a neutral configuration as I see it.
Yesterday I commented that you could get 2 to 1 on whether Wray would be confirmed by the end of this month. The odds this morning are 3 to 1 the other way. So now you will have to lay 3 to 1 on the don’t. The EV I saw did not last very long:)
At 3 to 1 it is still an excellent wager for the reasons I outlined yesterday. Even more so however, since, the Democrats and Never Trumpers have gone after the President’s son to try to hang a treason charge on him. I doubt the President will forgive and forget this time around.
Our politics gets worse by the day and it seems geometrical. One thing that can be discerned from all of this, in addition to the corruption in DC, is that the Republicans are not capable of governing. They now have the house, senate, and the presidency and it has been chaos from the beginning.
They cannot even get a health care bill passed to fix the disastrous effects the ACA is having on Americans. And what makes it worse is it comes after they voted to repeal during Obama’s years knowing it would get a veto.
For the Republicans that are reading this take heart, the Democrats cannot govern either. So what is one to do when we have a political system that is so corrupt and inept that neither side can govern? And all they can do is accuse and attempt to criminalize the other’s conduct?
I am an independent and I would not associate myself with either party at this time. It’s a real disservice to the American people to have their representatives not take up the people’s business. Instead, they devote their time to undermining the will of the electorate.
So if you’re a long time investor, you have to think long and hard as to where to put your money. The U.S. is overloaded in debt. Our politicians have neither the will or the courage to fix what is broken. The public is becoming more and more divided to the degree that something will have to give.
From where I see things that something will not be all of a sudden our politicians becoming honest and reasonable. That just is not going to happen. There is too much money behind the movements at hand to say let’s be reasonable.
So the fissure will come in the way of the public. We already saw how 30 Republicans literally dodged death on a baseball field. Yet, not only has this not rang a bell with our leaders, to the contrary the rhetoric and attacks keep getting stronger.
From the outside looking in this is a fascinating study in human nature. The U.S. a model of democracy is at the edge of chaos and no one is paying attention or for that matter cares.
With that backdrop if even a % of my observations are accurate, what do you think the markets are going to do? There are so many potential bombs in the works that days like yesterday or the 350 pt down day from a few weeks ago are going to become the norm.
And then, of course, you have Yellen raising rates! You cannot make this stuff up it’s so absurd.
Now, as to the markets. I put on a few short term trades yesterday for a small gain. I exited at the end of the day as I had no idea what the news this morning might be or how the markets would interpret it. That is my strategy for awhile now, take gains or quick losses and leave the medium term investing for when things settle down.
This volatility will create opportunities. The market will overreact like it did yesterday which will create a buying opportunity. The problem is at some point this will not work:)
Be disciplined, and position size your trades and you will be ok. Throw caution to the winds and it will just be a question of time before you get stung.
My strategy today will be the same as yesterday. However, the setups are less with the market right now in neutral territory on a short term basis.
Finally, as a word to the wise, if you’re getting crazy with the political scene, turn the news off. The primary objective is when all else around you is losing their minds that is the time to keep yours. This is even truer when you’re a gambler.
If anyone has any questions about how to do this just send me an email and I will give you some of my tricks that I use to keep a level head(90% of the time)!
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today