Saturday in MLB we had a one unit play and a setup and both won. Yankees +153 won 7-6 as our 1 unit play and Toronto U10-108 won 3-2 as our setup in MLB totals.
We also had 3 big move games:
St Louis +142(should have been Milwaukee)
Yankees +153
Minn +102
With the closing line on these:
St Louis +134
Yankees +156
Minn +132
I am either going to have to start wearing my glasses or do a mental check as this is the 2nd day in a row I have put the wrong numb down on big move games!
The results of the big move games seem to be tapering off but way to early to tell. But with 5 today and all 5 looking to me to have an opportunity for a nice move it will be interesting.
I was asked why I do not make these big move games a play. These are but 1 of many things I look at to determine value. Plays have to have most of what I look at fall in line along with having passed real-time testing. So these are far from being plays however merely reflect the possibility of a move not value in any way. The way to use these big move games is if you’re doing handicapping on your own. It always helps to have added inputs to look at either as a filter or as a consideration.
Well, we are almost finished with the first half of 2016 for MLB. The bright spot of the season has been the one unit plays. 44-45 +12.04 units. That is almost a 12% ROI. It really hard to do better than that considering the vig that the books take on each wager. The downside for the first half of the season was the 1/2 unit plays. 30 66 -15.595 units. These 1/2 unit plays only have one season of real-time testing as opposed to the one unit plays have two seasons. The significance is pretty large. Much larger than I would have expected.
However as we move on the failed 1/2 unit plays are dropping off as instead of season to season I use last twelve months. So when the last 12 months of real-time testing fails on a 1/2 unit play its dropped from consideration. That is why you are seeing a drop off of 1/2 unit plays.
The swings the first 1/2 of the season have been pretty tame. At no time have we been above or below 10 units. We have approached both ends and as it looks now will end up near the middle with a loss of 3 units on 210 plays.
I know a few of you have sent me emails and indicated that you are only wagering on the 1 unit plays and you have done very well with that approach. But in the long haul, I think the better approach is to wager on both and take the swings as they come. As long as you are using the right bet sizing method that I have talked about ad nausea you should be fine.
Finally, we have the totals. I have worked on that aspect for some time now and it might be coming together. Right now the totals will only have 1/2 a season of real-time testing. So I most likely will keep them as setups the 2nd half of the season.
Today I have sent out a 1/2 unit play and 5 big move games.
If anyone has any questions about MLB now would be a good time to send me an email. It’s going to be another long 2nd half of the season and if there is anything you are unclear about or question please ask.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
