An interesting game tonight in MLB:
Betting is 64% on the road dog with the line moving from -120 to -180 on the non public home favorite. I do not think I have seen that big a move on a home favorite where only 34% of the betting is on them. So what to make of it? Interestingly my models showed that -120 was quite a bit undervalued however at -180 the pendulum has swung to the other side. Variables do favor Seattle also. But the move is so big its hard to think there is value at -180. Most likely a big handicapping service or several put this game out and the service subscribers have piled on. I can imagine the books will be rooting for Seattle tonight! I am passing.
Friday in sports betting we pulled in on our 1 unit play Atlanta +182 5-1. We went against the cubs and Hammel who had 89% of the betting on them as a road favorite! But Norris had other things in mind as he decided to pitch a 7 inning 4 hitter. Johnson and Vizcaano came in and gave up no hits. Sweet:)
Our 1/2 unit play was not as fortunate with Minn +126 as they lost 1-8.
I have also been putting out very early in the morning the potential moves for the day. Yesterday the potential moves were:
These based upon my handicapping I feel have the potential to move substantially in favor towards the dog. Of these 3 yesterday
the final closing line was :
Baltimore was the big move followed by Cincinnati. St. Louis did not pan out.
These are something you should keep track of if you’re doing your own sports betting handicapping. Also, if your fortunate enough to have an account with pinnacle sports or matchbook these games should produce excellent middle opportunities.
I typically have been doing this myself as part of my sports betting handicapping routine late night or early morning. I have decided to share this wth subscribers as part of an additional value. I hope you can use it profitably.
Let me remind you these are not plays, however, I need quite a bit more to bet on the games.
Which leads me to the 1 unit plays and 1/2 plays for sports betting. The 1 unit plays have been for lack of a better word superb! The 1/2 unit plays have been dismal:) Whether you bet the 1/2 unit plays is your decision. I bet them and am confident the poor results with them are attributable to variance. But time will tell.
Let me mention that all subscription options now have a 3-day free trial if you wish to get an idea how this works. My goal has been since I started this site over 13 years ago is to put out winning plays in every sport I handicap. It’s been an interesting and fun 13 years and I feel I am finally at that point. Remember in sports betting very few make money. It requires a skill set that has an extremely high and costly learning curve.
I am here to not only let you know what I am wagering on but also to give subscribers insights into the type of critical thinking it takes to evaluate games. It’s far different than what most bettors think they need to evaluate. Also its counter intuitive most of the time. Very tricky to say the least.
If you wish to subscribe and take advantage of the state of the art techniques I use in handicapping games then you can hit the PayPal button and pick the subscription of your choice. I have made the subscription very reasonable compared to the staggering amounts charged by other services, most of which if they win it’s because of variance alone.
Hope to see you join us as the NFL and College football is right around the corner!
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks