OPEC Could not agree? Imagine that!

OPEC Could not agree? Imagine that!

9:15 Update

Back and let’s get caught up on the last two days sports plays.

Saturday and Sunday we had two 1 unit plays and 3 1/2 unit plays. The two 1 unit plays went 1-1  Winning with Minn +101 and losing with NYY +110. Our two 1/2 Unit plays in MLB went 1-1 winning with Phil +127 and losing with Cleveland +117. Finally, we had our first play in the NBA playoffs as a 1/2 unit play and it lost on Atlanta -5.5.  So -.55 units in the NBA and +.135 units in MLB.

On to another thing to consider. Let me start out by saying if you do not cover all contingencies it seems that sooner or later its going to cost you. If you leave one loophole open or 1 possibility for something to happen it’s going to happen and typically it’s going to cost you.

So this weekend while traveling for some strange reason oftentimes the group email settings I use do not work. I need to figure out why but that’s another issue. But one person had been using the email backup as the primary way to get the plays. And as luck would have it missed the two winners yesterday. But to soften it a bit missed the NBA play on Atlanta the day before.

But let me start out by saying the SMS is a backup only. Consider the private twitter feed as the only source of these plays with the idea the group email SMS is a cushion or backup. That way you have both in case something happens. If they both go down then we can figure that out when it comes to it. But they are two independent things so I doubt that will happen very often.

I can relate to what happened however as I have been in the same situation where I leave something to chance and it almost seems like clockwork on the day I do that it bites me. So I try to be as thorough as I can and all of you should too.

So if any of you are having any troubles at all with the private twitter feed or the SMS not coming through let me know immediately and we can work out the solution.

Saying that it was nice to get our two wins yesterday and they were both nail biters if you like the uncertainty:) Two extra inning games that went our way.

Nothing happening until 4:00 so I will be back shortly before then to let everyone know what to expect tonight.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

 

Over the weekend, the new addition to the middle east oil cartels along with a variety of other oil producing countries got together to restrict output. And to Putin’s chagrin, Iran gave them all the finger. So no agreement and oil are off quite a bit this morning.  Which Putin’s chagrin just happens to be my glee as I am short XLE and have a 2.34% gain just 20 min before the open.

Always like a gift like that. Although it was not without risk. They could have agreed but then I would have had to wait a day or two before one or more of them started cheating!

In any event, it’s a mean reversion trade that so far is working out.

Well, the markets are also off this morning but not quite as much as you would expect considering oil being down this much. Ideally, for me, we get a few day pullback and then a blast off to new highs. That the most likely that I can see. However we are rapidly approaching May 1 and although this is no magical number the tailwinds of seasonals will not be with us.

In addition, liquidity is going to slow up this week and maybe next. On the plus side, the Nasdaq Weekly is still leading the SP500. This is what I will be using after May 1st to signal the danger sign to the downside. It’s a very reliable middle term indicator.

And almost forgot Sentiment is fairly bearish right now which means look for the long side. So as the variables do not all come together and they rarely do short term….pullback..shallow..then a blast off to new highs …sentiment gets much better…then the plunge.

Let’s see how that scenario works out:)  And of course, there is a question of the timing!  Sweet!

If you wish to follow my trades you can at @rickjswings. It’s free for now and might give you some insight into swing trading. And you can always ask if there is something you would like explained.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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