Its been a busy two days for me with games coming up every hour or so. I have not had much time to write about certain games up things should lighten up a bit. Lets start with the last game today as it has some interesting things to consider:
Betting is 65% on the Dog and the line has moved from -2-106 to -3 -110. Variables slightly favor Cinci and models are neutral. But the interesting thing about this game is that only 35% of the betting is on the Favorite yet the line has moved contrary to the betting from -2 to -3. The fact that 65% of the betting is on the dog would steer me away from the Dog. And combine that with the Reverse line move on the favorite would simply mean to me that if your considering the game its the favorite or a pass. I am passing as I need a bit more then that for a play. But if your other handicapping techniques point to Cinci perhaps this might help you pull the trigger on the game.
No rest this morning. Tip off time in 1.5 hours for the 2nd day of the round of 64 in College Hoops.
Thursday we went 4-5 on our College hoop plays and 1-1 on our 1/2 unit NBA Plays.
I have been noticing for some time now a bias toward these plays covering the first half in a higher percentage then the full game covers. Now it might just be my imagination as I have not put any time into backtesting to see if there is actually anything to it. Logically I can see a reason why but as we all know logic is just one variable that needs to be taken into consideration.
To backtest out everything I use is going to be a monumental endeavor but during the off season that will be top on my list of things to do. It never hurts to look at different avenues for edges in sports handicapping.
Thursday saw 9 plays in college hoops. Looking over todays games we are not likely to come even close to that. Every play I take has multiple backtesting that each has produced a 60%+ win rate both backtested and in real time. But as the nature of sports betting is even with that variance plays a part in the scheme of things in the short run. That is why it is essential you follow my lead on betsizing and bankroll sizing as explained in the Must Read portion of the site. I do this now without even thinking about waivering from it.
I have tried many different approaches to wagering. From increasing on win streaks, increasing on losing streaks, betting big to get even for the day and the list is only as big as a gambler’s imagination. So when I tell you there is absolutely no other way then what I expouse in the Must Read….give it some serious consideration:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
After a big day yesterday the market is again gaping up today! Futures are up a little over .25% as I type this.
Liquidity is a funning thing. First, you have Draghi opening up the floodgates and then you have Yellen do an 180 this week. I have already commented on the schizophrenic Fed so I will not bore you again with that this morning.
However look what’s on tap this morning:
- US-William Dudley Speaks – 08:00 AM
- US-Eric Rosengren Speaks – 10:00 AM
- US-James Bullard Speaks – 02:00 PM
From an intellectual view, it will be interesting to see what point of view they spout today:) From a fundamental view of the markets what they say will most likely mean absolutely nothing as to what they are actually going to do or as to what they might say next week or next month!
So now what unique opportunity am I talking about this morning? First, I have been trading gap fills in earnest the last week or so. I have my systems in place and am quite optimistic going forward on these. My vehicle of choice is sso on the long side and sds on the short side. I can trade 100,000 round trip for 2.00 in and 2.00 out. Quite astonishing really compared to 10 years ago.
Back to the opportunity. Today is options expiration day and historically you have a strong downward bias from the open to the end of the day. This is even truer when you have a strong run up to Friday. So we have a gap up so far of 1/4% and if it holds or higher at the open we have a very high % shorting opportunity at the open not only for a gap fill but also an options expiration day trade if you want to hold until EOD.
To add to the opportunity, right now we are in the sweet spot for a gap fill.
Should be interesting to say the least.
I am pretty much flat this market right now with a small gain this month after getting hammered on a short earnings day put trade. Last month I had a similarly sized loss and still managed a 6000+ gain for the month. This time, however, I am standing at +600 for the month. If one could only eliminate trades that have a loss:)
Back to work as I still have some things to do before the open and also before tipoff time on day 2 of the first round of the NCAA Tournament. More on college hoops before 9:00
Good Luck Today in the markets and sports!
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks