An email I received regarding my post predicting Natalie Portman as Best Actress for Black Swan:
Just a point about your Oscar pick Natalie Portman. I too think her performance was incredible in Black Swan. I consider this area one of my areas of gambling expertise having cashed a number of big wagers on entertainment betting in the past including a big win last year on Jeff Bridges for best Actor in Crazy Heart.
My advice if you like this type of wager is to bet it early at the Golden Globes and not wait for the Oscars where the line could become greatly inflated. Case in point: last year George Clooney was actually the favorite at -110 for Up in The Air. Jeff Bridges if you can believe it was an underdog at +150. After he took home the Golden Globe and SAG awards the odds skyrocketed and by Oscar time he was a -700 favorite!!
Natalie Portman is currently -400 fav for the Golden Globe – admittedly high juice for a wager of this type. But look at her competition!
Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole – really the only potential upset possibility but I don’t see it for a number of reasons. Jennifer Lawrence – a complete unknown for Winters Bone – a really good movie if you have not seen it yet. Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine -please! And Halle Berry for Frankie and Alice – Please again!!
When Natalie wins the golden globe and SAG awards I expect her Oscar odds to be -2000 if not higher. Now would be the time to jump on this bet.
The great thing about these types of bets is unlike with any sport bet there are times like this one where you have actually zero doubt in your mind that it will cash. After just a few minutes of watching Black Swan I said to myself – she is going to get an Oscar for this.
Just thought I’d pass that along. Thanks as always for the great work you do with your Blog. “
Thanks for the email. I am going to be looking for golden globes odds right now!!!!