Saturday we had 3 plays, all were overnight 1/2 unit plays. Nothing else developed yesterday.
We ended up 1-2 for the day. Arizona -130 won 3-2 , San Diego +108 lost 6-12 and San Fran -128 lost 2-3.
Today so far there are 2 overnight plays.
The big story this month is the overnight predictive ability as to the direction of the line.
How would you like to know the direction the line was going to move on a game before you made a wager on the game? This would be an invaluable aid for a professional handicapper or even a casual sports bettor.
Serious bettors would pay big dollars for something that was reliable in doing that. Just think of it, knowing which way the line was going to go before betting a game. That means you know whether to bet it now or to wait. That alone would be worth quite a few units over the course of a season.
Well, as part of your subscription you have access to the sharpest information in the business as to which way the line is going to go.
In June so far the move prediction is 21-2. That means 91.3 % of the time this model has predicted the move of the line. I challenge anyone to beat that consistently.
For the season this model has been 71.21% accurate.
I have had a number of emails from bettors that follow me that wager 4 figures on every game asking for me to disclose the details behind my model. Or in one instance offering to pay me for the details behind my model.
I have in the past been approached by a number of syndicates and also the CEO of MatchBook to meet and discuss employment. In almost every instance, however, it turned out as an attempt to learn my methods. Imagine that:)
I only bring this up to let you understand the value of what you are getting with your subscription. It is easy to forget during the grind of wagering daily the big picture.
Professional bettors typically consider 30 units a year a good year. No matter what you use as a professional bettor there is no way to avoid the fact that sports betting is a grind.
You may have noticed how tame the swings have been this MLB season. As a handicapper, you make decisions on a number of factors. It is a question of balancing variance with the profit factor.
Typically when you reduce variance your profit factor goes down. Not in all cases but more often than not.
Ideally, if we all had unlimited amounts of money the only consideration would be the profit factor without a consideration for the standard deviation. But, in this world, that is not the situation.
I have chosen to put variance as a top priority as I know few can withstand the swings that a method that ignores variance would bring.
Enough rambling this morning. If anyone has any questions please send me an email.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks