GeoPolitical events through the end of the year have the potential to affect the markets dramatically. More so now than at any time in our history.
I say this only from a trading standpoint. If you’re a buy and hold investor or even a medium term swing trader you do not want to get caught on the wrong side of a big blowup.
In particular, events relating to Russia, Turkey and Iran should be followed closely. Each area has issues that could blow any moment. Turkey and Ukraine are back as a hot spot with Russia building up troops again on their border. Turkey is now post coup with Turkey rapidly heading towards Islamic authoritarianism. We have our air base in Turkey with a supply of Nukes. What could go wrong?
Finally, Iran post-nuke deal. It seems to keep getting worse and worse. Kidnapping of Americans has picked up speed while the destroy American and Israel dialect have not abated one bit. Russia is now flying missions out of Iran into Syria while the Chinese are training Assad’s troops.
Oh and guess who is running for President of Iran again….Ahmadinejad. The “moderate” Rouhani will likely be gone. Too soft I guess!
I only say all of this because things are not shaping up very well on the World stage for the U. S. And if things go south they most likely will go south fast. The markets will be in turmoil.
Now you can protect yourself by hedging with gold. In my judgement, that might be the best hedge. To semi-protect yourself from a severe and sudden market drop.
Kissinger said that the #1 rule in foreign strategy was to keep Russia and China from uniting. We have not only broken this rule but we have given them a common cause. Will Kissinger be right?
Ok, I have strayed from my usual market comments but when you invest the big picture should be one of the things you look at. And as I see it the above is a variable to stay on top of.
The markets are off slightly 45 Min before the open. My only position is GLD which is developing nicely. A steady move up in Gld since I have bought it.
Yesterday going into the Fed min my strategy was to play for a reversal with a trade just prior to the fed min release at 11. My ideal setup was looking good for a while but then went by the wayside after the market rallied too early for me. I still took a short-term swing trade with the idea of the markets taking off after what I figured would be a dovish report. But as markets typically do it was not an easy trade and I took a small loss.
That happens a bit in trading. The important thing is to recognize when things are not going as planned and exit the trade. Which in retrospect I handled the setup and exit very well.
The markets most likely will have an upside bias today and I will be looking for short-term swing trades this morning depending how the market shapes up in the first 15 min or so.
If you wish to follow my trades and comments just go to @rickjswings.It’s my private twitter feed for the markets. Unlike my private sports handicapping feed it’s free!
Good Luck Today
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