Political Odds primary observations along with some general election commentary

Its a slow time now, with only MLB going and in a few weeks College football starts and then the NFL.

MLB is hovering around breakeven for the season, with Totals the standout , and despite beating the closing line by almost 70% on the overnights the plays are slightly negative for the season.

So, the special could go either way at this point:)

But, now is a good time to take a look at political odds. We are rapidly approaching primary season where to me there are some outstanding wagers.

I had the opinion that fading Republicans that were running in the primary that either voted to impeach Trump or convict him  would be a very profitable across the board wager.

This was reinforced by Ohio, where the Establishment spent massive amounts of money to prevent Trump’s pick, Mike Kerry. Not only did he win but he won easily considering the crowed Republican field.

So lets look at some of the odds on Predictit.org.

To start off I had a few questions about several races.

The first was what I felt was Newsom’s chances of being recalled in Ca. The odds this morning are 3 to 1 against him being recalled. That line appears about right to me. I know the headlines are that he is in trouble, however, the way the mail in voting is set up in Ca, I doubt anyone can beat him. The line would have to be much higher for me to consider betting against the recall.

The second was whether Cuomo would resign. The odds right now are 3 to 1 against him resigning by 9/17 but its a bit over 3/1 that he will not be in  office by the end of the year.  My guess is a deal will eventually be made and he will retire quietly. So both lines to me are hard to wager on as there are external forces that are unknown going on behind the scenes daily on this one. Best to stay away from this wager.

Republicans are a bit over a 2 to 1 favorite to retake the House. That looks about right to me. Most of the recent elections seem to bear that out. If anything 2 to 1 seems a bit low. But I do not see any value right now betting either side of this one.

The Senate last I looked was a toss up. The value is on the Republicans at a toss up, however, never underestimate the Republicans self destructing which they are doing right now. A lot will hinge on the primary. If the establishment is successful in winning primary’s then there is a reasonable chance the base will not come out. Ga is a good example of that.

If however a lot of establishment Republicans get upset in the primary, then the chances of a Republican lead senate increase substantially.  This of course is contrary to the idea that the incumbent has the edge. However, among the Republican base, the establishment Republicans have such a low approval rating that I do not think this factors in this time.

All in all I would put the line at 3 to2 in favor of the Republicans taking back the Senate.

The best wager I can see is to fade every Republican in the primary that voted to impeach Trump or convict him. I would not cherry pick these but just wager the same amount across the board.

Regardless of your feelings toward Trump, the fact is the base is still behind him. I do not think the primary season will be kind to those that voted against him on impeachment.

Some of the more vocal members :

Kinzinger is a 3 to 1 dog to win the primary

Cheney is a 5 to  2 dog

Murkowsi is a 6 to 4  favorite

Lines are not up on many of the races yet. However, fade them all, and I doubt you will be negative when the smoke clears.

Another interesting wager revolves around McCarthy. McCarthy’s popularity is getting lower and lower. I do not think he is an automatic to win the his House seat although as of right now I do not see a serious challenger. It is a race to watch for an opportunity.

The other is Rubio in Florida. Here again the field is not set and as of yet no on serious has come forward. Make no mistake Rubio is as establishment as they come. If he gets a serious opponent the line is going to be very high in Rubio’s favor. This would be an excellent long shot wager in my opinion. We will have to see how this develops.

You have several things to weigh here. There will be massive amounts of money going to support the establishment Republicans. Also the RNC will be behind the establishment candidate. A good example is Herschel Walker in Georgia. The establishment Republicans have already come out against him, even though the reality is he would be an easy winner in the general. 

The establishment Republicans are driven not be who is most likely to succeed but who is most likely to  not make waves once they get into office. This strategy has cost them seats the most recent being in Alabama when they cancelled Mo Brooks and ended up losing a Senate seat in Deep Red Alabama, and the Ga, where both candidates, both unpopular establishment tow the line candidates, could not muster the base in red Georgia. Collins on the other hand would have been an easy Senate pick up, which McConnell nixed out of hand.

Essentially what you have is the establishment Republicans giving up EV, for the sake of not giving up their own power. And it is costing them dearly. The failure to accept reality in politics is probably the worst mistake you can make. In what world does a party think they can win by alienating its base??? Yet, the Republican continue on this self destructive path with  no end in site. 

So as I see it, the voters will decide the general primary season. 

Now,  I could of course be wrong:)  But to me its pretty clear as to  the dynamics  at work. The establishment Republicans war on Trump and his supporters may well do them in as a  viable party.

The only thing that I can see that would prevent this is the Democrat strategy. The Democrats had a rare opportunity this time around. Over 75 million Americans voted for Trump, which consists of almost 90% of the Republican  base. One thing they have in common with many of the Democrats is their distaste for the establishment Republicans.

The Democrats have chosen a strategy that not only does not take advantage of this, but gives the base a “Sophies Choice” so to speak. Two impossible choices, which the end result may well be forcing them to choose establishment Republicans. 

All the Democrats had to do was move a bit to the center, not demonize Trump voters, and praise Trump for some of his policies. This could have  moved a large % of the Trump supporters who could not stomach the Republican establishment to consider voting Democrat this time around. But, the Dems not only did the exact opposite, they did it in spades.

It seems neither side has the ability to shift gears. That is what is going to  make this election season a crapshoot. Except of course in the Republican primary when the base is going to come out in record numbers to consider that it is their patriotic duty to get rid of the “traitors” that voted to impeach or convict Trump.

So simply right now, the only wager I can see that has a lot of EV is the fade I have been talking about. 

I will  have more as the races become more defined.

Remember football season is almost here. You can subscribe by going to rickjshandicappingpicks.com, and choosing the subscription of choice from the drop down PayPal menu. All subscriptions have a 3 day free trial.

Also if you have any questions you can email me at riccja3@gmail.com and  I will answer them for you.

I have had this site for almost 20 years now and have successfully weathered the ups and downs of sports betting while keeping variance at a reasonable limit.

My plays are sent out via twitter, email and now Slack.

As an added feature that is included in the subscription, I post most of my stock trades on slack. My trades consist of mean reversion, pullback , income trades and also 2 day short put sales.

The 2 day short put sales are made on Thursday with Friday expiration. These have been as solid a method as you will find so far. 325 Trades  306 winners 19 losers with a 94.15% success rate and a  profit factor of 3.89.   The drawdowns have been minimal.


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