Political Odds update with discussions of the changes in the various races

Now that Moore has easily won the Alabama special election lets take a look at some of the other predictions and any new ones that have cropped up.

Remember it’s my premise that the political chaos we are seeing on both sides of the aisle will benefit non-establishment Republicans rather than the Democrats and establishment Republicans.

If my premise is wrong than the odds will be wrong:) But so far my predictions on the odds have been pretty accurate.

After the Moore prediction :

Dems  to win white house in 2020

5 to 4                                                  Repub 2 to 1

The odds are still 5 to 4 and I think my line is a bit low. I will raise it now to 5 to 2.

Flake to win primary

6 to 4                                                5 to 1 against

The odds are now 2 to 1 against Flake. 5 to 1 is much too low. I would say 10 to 1 against flake is more like it. I suspect the line will get close to that before the primary. Of course, he may not run as we are seeing some establishment Republican’s pulling out rather than get trounced in the primary. I can imagine internal polling is pretty miserable for them.

Ryan to win primary

7.5 to 1                                               3 to 1

The odds are now down to 5 to 1. For a long shot betting against Ryan has a lot of value. I had indicated 3 to 1. I would not surprise me if things really turn bad for Ryan that the odds would get close to even money.

Control of house 2018

Republicans 11 to 10                           3 to 1

Odds now are just slightly above even money in favor of the Republicans. Historically the off-term elections favor the party out of power in picking up house seats. But this is not a normal political environment. There are a lot of variables at play here. You have the Dems who have squandered their chances by being part of a “resistance”, you have the Establishment Republicans showing that they are incapable of governing. So what will the voters do?

My guess is they go with non-establishment Republicans. There is a big anti-establishment movement, the one that got Trump elected. So it should be interesting to see how all of this plays out.

To show just how strong the movement is, consider that McConnell sunk over 30 million into Strange while Moore had 1/10th of that. And he won easily.

Kasich to run in 2020

even money                                        5 to 2 in  favor

The odds are now 60 40 in favor of him running. I stick with my 5 to 2 odds.

One other line that is similar to Flake is Heller in Arizona. Heller is a 6 to 4 favorite to win the primary. I put the line out at 5 to 1 against and even that might be a bit low.

There are more but I will post them this week.



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