Political odds update for 08/05/18 now posted

My Sunday Political Odds Update for 08/05/18
 
Not much has changed for the House and Senate control. The Senate has moved from 5 to 2 to almost 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans keeping control. The House has stayed steady at 3 to 2 in favor of the Dems regaining control.
 
As far as value, I do not see anything here worth wagering on.
 
The Ohio special election this Tuesday has the Republican a 3 to 2 favorite to win. That looks about right to me.
 
Last week I mentioned that there was value in laying 9 to 2 that Rosenstein would not be impeached. The odds right now are almost 20 to 1 against impeachment of Rosenstein. The value is not gone from the wager.
 
The odds of Trump being impeached in his 1st term are 3 to 2 against. Which is interesting as the odds of the Dems taking back control of the House is 3 to 2 in favor.
 
I assume that if the Dems do take control of the House impeachment proceedings will be started.
 
But I do not see much value here.
 
Last week I thought there was value in taking 5 to 1 that Cavenaugh would not be confirmed. Well, the odds are now 7 to 1! I still thnk there is value here. I am still convinced that some last second maneuverings might derail his nomination. The reasons are the same as I stated in my last post.
 
Another interesting wager is you can get almost 4 to 1 that Sessions will be the next cabinet member to leave. A lot of this is contingent on when the Special Counsel wraps things up. But, my guess is that Sessions will be gone within a week after Mueller is finished.
 
So taking the 4 to 1 seems like a reasonable wager to me.
 
That is my update for this week. I still think the best wager right now is to fade every Democrat running in States that Trump carried in 2016. I cannot imagine not being on the plus side on that wager after the midterms.
 
RickJ
Rickj’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/politicalodds
Skype: riccja

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Contact Us

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Not readable? Change text. captcha txt
Rickj's Handicapping Picks
Sign up now for our  newsletter. Includes handicapping tips

MLB has now entered the 3rd month of the season!  Results posted.

RickJ's Handicapping Picks  The latest in positive EV handicapping Techniques Overnight Plays in MLB are sent out around 3 to 4 PM PST the day before Come join us for a fun and profitable Pro Sports season!!!  
Sign up now for the service. Its free until NCAA FB starts. 
Close

Positive EV Handicapping


Do you know the important clues that help determine which side has +EV?
 
  • Learn about Reverse Line Moves and how they apply to each sport
  • Learn about being a contrarian and using public % numbers to get an edge
  • Learn about the seasons within a season that all sports have
  • Learn key numbers in all sports

Sign up to get updates that will help you with your sports handicapping!
 
SUBSCRIBE
close-link