My Sunday Political Odds Update for 08/05/18
Not much has changed for the House and Senate control. The Senate has moved from 5 to 2 to almost 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans keeping control. The House has stayed steady at 3 to 2 in favor of the Dems regaining control.
As far as value, I do not see anything here worth wagering on.
The Ohio special election this Tuesday has the Republican a 3 to 2 favorite to win. That looks about right to me.
Last week I mentioned that there was value in laying 9 to 2 that Rosenstein would not be impeached. The odds right now are almost 20 to 1 against impeachment of Rosenstein. The value is not gone from the wager.
The odds of Trump being impeached in his 1st term are 3 to 2 against. Which is interesting as the odds of the Dems taking back control of the House is 3 to 2 in favor.
I assume that if the Dems do take control of the House impeachment proceedings will be started.
But I do not see much value here.
Last week I thought there was value in taking 5 to 1 that Cavenaugh would not be confirmed. Well, the odds are now 7 to 1! I still thnk there is value here. I am still convinced that some last second maneuverings might derail his nomination. The reasons are the same as I stated in my last post.
Another interesting wager is you can get almost 4 to 1 that Sessions will be the next cabinet member to leave. A lot of this is contingent on when the Special Counsel wraps things up. But, my guess is that Sessions will be gone within a week after Mueller is finished.
So taking the 4 to 1 seems like a reasonable wager to me.
That is my update for this week. I still think the best wager right now is to fade every Democrat running in States that Trump carried in 2016. I cannot imagine not being on the plus side on that wager after the midterms.
Rickj’s Handicapping Picks