It’s time to take another look at the political odds.
The nearest event of any significance is the Alabama special election for the Senate. The significance is twofold. If Moore loses than the Republicans lead in the Senate is down to 1. And of course, it will give an advanced indicator of what might be in store for 2018.
The betting odds right now are 5 to 2 in favor of Moore. The polling has the race a bit tighter. My guess is that the odds are more indicative of what the real line is. I suggest more in the neighborhood of 5 to 1 in favor of Moore.
There is a lot of money coming in against Moore right now. Both from the Dems and the Republicans. But we have seen that in this political environment its not about the money, it’s about the voters. I think you can add 5 to 10 pts to any polling to the Moore side. After all, who is going to admit publically they are going to vote for Moore!
So Moore in an easy win tomorrow is how I see it.
Next, we come to the tax bill. The odds are 2 to 1 in favor of a tax bill by year-end. For reasons I have discussed before I still put the odds at 2 to 1 against. Just because the Republicans in the Senate moved the bill along back to the house does not mean that 2 more Senators will not vote no on the final bill. Collins as already waffled on her approval. One more and the bill is dead.
My premise on the midterm elections is that the establishment politicians on both sides are going to get pounded. The benefit, in my opinion, will go to nonestablishment Republicans.
I have a variety of reasons for this opinion. It’s true that both the Dems and the Republicans have done everything possible they could do to lose handily in the midterm. Its really been an astonishing thing to observe.
There is one thing that has maintained steady however and that is the voter disgust for D.C. If anything its gotten much worse.
I think you could look across the board at establishment Republicans running in 2018 and vote where there is a serious primary candidate against them. Just bet them all and I believe you will come out very well.
The big longshot is Ryan. You can get almost 7 to 1 betting against him. That, in my opinion, is a gift as I view the odds at 3 or 4 to 1 at best. If things go wrong for him that could easily head down to even money.
Flake and Corker my 2 sure things have evaporated as both have announced they are not running. They saw the handwriting on the wall:)
Heller at 6 to 5 against is a gift. I say 3 or 4 to 1 against.
Another interesting primary is Menendez in NJ. Odds are almost 2 to 1 in his favor. I view it as now more than even money.
Looking out to 2020 the odds are 55 to 45 in favor of a Dem taking the White House. I view the odds at 3 to 1 against.
The odds of Trump being the Nominee in 2020 is even money. Bet on Trump at even money. So far he has defied all odds, no reason to think he will not continue. Although, I certainly could see it going against him also. I say 2 to 1 in his favor.
There is no question in my mind there will be a primary challenge to Trump. In addition, I suspect a 3rd party run if Trump wins the primary. His enemies will take out all stops to assure he will not be reelected in 2020. They were blindsided in 2016, it will not happen again in 2020. Things will get very ugly if he happens to win the primary.
Now saying all of this one might think I have a bias toward non-establishment republicans:) Not at all. As I have said many times before I am not hindered by any particular ideology. I am an issue-driven person as opposed to a particular party. So I tend to view things in an objective manner.
I typically see both sides of an issue. Rather than the ideologues’ one-sided view.
To get that perspective you have to listen to news from both sides. And the news has to be real as opposed to fake.
On the left, I have found Glenn Greenwald to be very reliable and ethical. He has a site “The Intercept”. There are other columnists there but he is the one that stands out for reliable news and opinions.
On the right, Tucker Carlson seems the best to me. His show typically gives both sides of the argument, although, he does swing to the right.
What is interesting is the Greenwald is often on his show, which makes for very interesting commentary.
If your only getting your news from the mainstream media I am afraid you will be living in an alternate universe. No there is no problem with that unless you’re basing your investment decisions on what you are hearing.
That is my update for today. It will be interesting to see how the Alabama election rolls tomorrow.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks