Its been awhile since I have updated the political odds page so let’s go through some of the political odds now and see how they look.
First, since Trump is on everyone’s mind lets look at some of the odds:
Odds of Trump having a full term: 2 to 1 in favor
Odds of Trump out in 2018: 9 to 1 against
Odds of Trump out in 2019 6.5 to 1 against
Looking over these the lines look like there is value on Trump being around until the end of his 1st term. Afterall over 1 year has gone by. Any proceedings to take him out will have to be started on Nov 8th. absent startling revelations. The odds of that are rapidly approaching 0.
I view the odds of Trump having a full term at 5 to 1 in favor if not higher. Odds out in 2018 25 to 1 against and out in 2019 20 to 1 against.
So as you can see I feel there is a lot of value in laying the odds here.
Odds of the party winning the next presidential election is 55 45 in favor of the Democrats. I view this as no higher than 50 50 and perhaps 60 40 in favor of the Republicans These odds reflect the hysteria we are seeing every day now which for the most part is overblown or completely wrong. However, the caveat here is the Republican party does not seem to know how to win. They shoot themselves in the foot at every step. Otherwise, I would place the odds much higher for them.
Control of the house after 2018 Midterms: 2 to 1 in favor of the Dems
My view on this race has changed from 6 months ago. We have historical trends here and in addition, the redistricting in Pa that will affect the house seats.
I do not think 2 to 1 is accurate however and I would make it 7 to 5 in favor of the Dems.
Control of the Senate after the 2018 elections: 9 to 5 in favor of the Republicans. I think this is low and I would make it 5 to 2 in favor of the Republicans.
Another set of odds related to the anti trumpers up for reelection. I was of the opinion that you could fade everyone and most likely come out great. Many of them have now withdrawn. The most noticeable being Flake and Corker. Both were vehemently anti trump and their support at home plunged down to the low teens. As an aside if Flake decides to try to primary Trump, I view the odds at about 100 to 1 against Flake. Anything less than 10 to 1 would be a gift.
There is another group wager I like. Fading Dems that are in races where Trump won handily in their district. There are 5 running and you can get pretty good odds against each. My expectation would be to go 3 -2 at worse.
I will try to update more often as new lines develope.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks