Political Odds - Rickj's Handicapping Picks
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My westgate 5 NFL picks, Westgate 5 top contest picks. Season to date in all sports, comments on political odds My thoughts for a Sunday morning.

In College Football on Sat we went 2-1 on Sides and 0-1 on totals for a 2-2 day. That brings my record in College football season to date at

Sides 18-19

Totals 7-2

Combined: 25-21  54.34%

In The NFL Season to date:

Sides 9-5

Totals 1-2

Combined 10-7   58.8%

I have sent out 1 play to subscribers for this weekend so far in the NFL

In the All spread contest where I pick every game against the spread I sit at 87-76 Season to date or 53.37%. I have been slipping in this contest:)  Last season I was over 55%.

I send all my all spread contest picks to subscribers the day of the game along with my analysis of each game.

College Hoops has started and we are off to a reasonable start after just a few days of games:

Season to date we are 4-2 on Totals in College Hoops.

In The Westgate NFL Contest Picks, My 5 picks based upon their lines this week are:

Detroit +3 (L)

Atl +3

NE +2.5

Chargers +5.5

NO -6  ( in the westgate they put the lines out early)

Last week The Top 5 contest picks went 0-5 bringing their record to 25-20-1

The Westgate Top 5 contest picks this week are:

Sea

LV

Ten

Giants

NO

I am with NO and fading LV.

The bottom 5 picks this week are:

Balt

Wash

Det

GB

Jax

I am on one of the bottom 5 this week and it has already lost.

All of my election bets have settled and fading the House races where Trump won in 2016 turned out to be very profitable. Unfortunately, I could only find lines on about 16 out of 30. I will post the results of these soon in the political odds section

My three biggest wagers this election were: 1. Florida to Trump 2. the 30 House races and 3. Trump’s final result vs the poll predictions.

I had also wagered on Trump to win at 45/55 and on election night laid it off at 80/20 for a nice profit. I bet on Florida twice. I laid off the first wager for a profit, then bet it again when it became clear to me Florida was a cinch for Trump. It was never in doubt. On the wager regarding the final result vs the polls I had wagered 850 to win 8500. I laid that wager off for an 850.00 profit.

The advantage of wagering with predictit is you can lay wagers off easily. The disadvantage is you pay a % of your win and then when you cash out they take an additional 5%. It’s a steep price, but considering the spread is often close you are not giving up the automatic 5% you give up in sports betting. In addition, the markets are usually influenced by the polls and the public even more than in sports betting. There are not as many sharp bettors as there now seems to be in the sports betting markets.

That does not mean political betting is over. There are some interesting lines coming out now and I will talk about these soon.

As many of you know I have added slack to my method of sending out plays. There are two parts to my slack account. One for my investment side where I share all my stock and option trades. The other is the sports side where you get my plays, analysis, and have the ability to chat with me in real-time during the day.

I have sub-boards where subscribers can interact with each other also on a variety of topics.

If you wish to join us for the next 30 days I have made it easy for you:

https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/Rickjsports/49

Sign up now and I will have you signed on within minutes.

My goal is not only to produce positive EV plays but to keep subscribers out of trouble. I have been doing this online for over 20 years now!!!

As you know gamblers have a propensity to get in trouble, I was once one of them:)  That is why I try to educate as much as I try to produce winning plays.

I had an excellent Political Betting election season this year.  I had mentioned that I laid off my Trump to win wager and received a rather rude email essentially accusing me of not telling the truth:)

I proceeded to send the person my tickets from Predict it along with the dates and times of the wagers. Essentially I got 45/55 on Trump when I made the wager and then the evening of Nov 3rd laid it off at a tad over 80/20.

Now unless you were wagering on Predictit you would not have had that opportunity. Which despite the high cost of wagering there, the flexibility makes up for it, rather than going through traditional books.

I have been handicapping online for over 20 years now successfully, and I challenge anyone to point out where I have been anything but transparent:)  I can say over the 20 years I have not misrepresented anything on my wagers.

Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Slack: Rickjsports

 

 

 

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My political wagers heading into the election, pollster I watch, Election fraud and more. My thoughts on a Sunday morning

We are 10 days before the Presidential election and I thought it would be a great time to update the political odds along with my thoughts.

First people need to recognize there is a very big disparity between the media pollsters and what I consider apolitical unbiased pollsters. The difference is as striking as it was in 2016.

If you look at the media pollsters the election is over. Coincidently that is what they were saying in 2016.

The independent pollsters that are typically apolitical are saying close to Trump with over 300 electoral votes this year.

So who is correct?

If you are wagering you need not bother with the outcome. But only where the EV is. As in sports betting the public moves the lines. That is the square money. It is no different in the political arena, if not more so. Some of the lines I have seen are so far out of wack I have to restrain myself:)

Fortunately (or unfortunately) predictit has an $850.00 betting limit on wagers on one bet.

I maxed out on two wagers:

The first was laying 850 to win 1497 that Biden would not win the popular vote by more than 10.5%  I have a 65.00 gain so far on my wager. I see this as a huge overlay. I would put the line at closer to 30 to 1. So I have 65 of the possible 215.00 gain if I want it. If the gains get over 150 I will most likely take it.

The second is 850 to win 1065 on Florida going to Trump. Getting odds here is to me a gift. I put the line at closer to 3 to 1 in favor of Trump taking Florida. There are a few reasons. The pollsters I listen to have the state locked up for trump. The worry is voter fraud, but in Florida, there is a solid republican governor so I doubt that it’s going to be a big concern there.  I have a 60.00 gain on that wager. That is 65.00 of a 640.00 potential gain. I doubt there will be a chance to lay this one-off.

These two wagers to me look like excellent wagers.

Notice I took into consideration voter fraud in the Florida wager. This is a real concern this year, although the Republicans are winning most of their court battles, PA, Minn and Nevada are still up in the air.

The SC ruled they had 3 extra days in PA . the federal court ruled 10 extra days in Minn and Nevada has yet to be ruled on. If ACB gets in, and these issues get before the SC most likely they will all go in Trump’s favor. The 4-4 ruling on PA may get revisited and I expect that to get set aside.

So a lot to consider. Make no mistake voter fraud is a real issue in this election.

Here are my wagers going into today:

I spread my wagers out over a number of bets with the two largest being what I considered excellent EV wagers. The house races I faded were races that Trump won in 2016 and they lost the seat in 2018. There were 30 of these and I faded everyone I could find a line on. I did not cherry-pick them. There were almost half that did not have lines. So I only got 15 or so bet.

The pollsters and commentators I listen to are below:

Robert C. Cahaly @robertcahaly
Now obviously not everyone is going to agree with me:)  But this is how I see it.
To get an idea of how things are moving right now, less than a week ago I had -400 equity on my picks, today it is +150.  That is a pretty big move in less than a week.
A tip:  View the race as a handicapper and do not get drawn into the drama. Politics is not worth torturing yourself over. Makes no difference if your a Democrat or a  Republican stay balanced. Otherwise, you will find yourself in crazy land.  Do not buy into the 24/7 hysteria, view it as an opportunity to find value in the wagering markets.
Sure I have my preference but I assure you, you will not find me going off the deep end no matter what happens.  Your health and the safety of your family is the most important thing. Never forget that.
I  handicap for fun. It stimulates my mind.  I have been doing it now for over 20 years online.  Hopefully, I have brought value to many of my long term subscribers.
I am always available for questions. Just send me a message on my slack account or email me.
Good Luck
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds
Slack: Rickjsports
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Updated Political odds along with some of my wagers. My thoughts for a Thursday Morning.

The first debate is in so now would be a good time to go over the political odds landscape.

First let me update my wager fading the 30 House Dems that won in 2018 that trump carried in 2016. So far I have been able to fade 15 of those as the lines have not been posted on the other 15.

Here they are:

GA-06     29/71  price now 28/72   -1

ME 02     51/49  price now 18/82   -33

IA-01        32/68  price now 24/76 -8

SC -01     54/46  price now 37/63   -17

NY-11       36/64 price now 36/64   0

NJ -03     34/66  price now 33/69 -1

IA-02       29/61 price now 32/68    +3

MN-07     68/32 price now  70/30  +2

NY-22       47/53 price now   51/49 +4

OK-05       68/32  price now   49/51   -19

VA-07      43/57   price now    26/74    -17

NM-02 Republican 43/57  The line is now 45/55.  +2

NJ-02  66/34   Price Now    50/50       -16

VA-02 24/76    Price now    35/65     +11

Ut-04  50/50   Price Now  50/50        0

NJ-03   34/66  Price now  29/71       -5

If you are looking at joining me, for most you can get better prices then I got awhile back:)  I am hoping the rest of the lines come out soon as I want to have all 30 wagers in on these.

Presidential winner:

Trump 48/55 +7Pts I took Trump at 45/55. At some books, you have to lay -105 to wager on Trump!
I think Trump getting 3 to 2 is an excellent wager. Starting to get as good as the dirty 30 wagers in terms of equity. The 3 to 2 is no longer available. It is pretty much even money right now. There has been a massive move toward Trump in the last 2 weeks.

There is one thing you can count on, the polls will be slanted toward Biden by at least 10 pts.  As I noted Trump at even money seems reasonable and now you can get almost 6/4. My take is the outcome will hinge on whether they get voter fraud under control. 2020 will be massive attempts at voter fraud. The establishment will be taking out all stops to get Trump out of office.

The two primary reasons: 1. Very high up people are going to be spending time in prison if he wins  2. He is costing the establishment a lot of money with his America first policy. All the special interest money is drying up as they cannot produce. Trump is looking out for Americans, not special interests. So the establishment on both sides wants him gone.

I would like to find a wager as to how many senate Republicans vote for Biden:)  Since there is no way of finding out there will not be a line. But my guess is at least 10 will be voting for Biden.

Control of the Presidency: Dems 63/40 Same as Trump Biden odds

Again I believe the value is on the Republicans, It looks like a repeat of 2016 to me with the polling. Note that on the major betting sites you cannot get anywhere near 3 to 2 on Trump.  The line is much closer. Predict it has some great value.

Control of the House:

87/16 Democrats: +8 Pts

I took 4 to 1 and now staring at 5 to 1. Lots of EV in getting 5 to 1 here. I may end up wagering more at this price.

Control of the Senate:

61/40  -11 Pts toward the Republicans Losing  the Senate.

I think the Republicans are a good wager here, getting almost 6/4. They have not done themselves any favors, to say the least. But I cannot fathom the electorate going with the Dems with their policy agenda. The better wager to me is getting 6 to 1 on the Republicans regaining the House.

I think most likely Collins is going to lose Maine, but Alabama is a certain pickup. So we are back to +3 Republicans. I cannot imagine the Dems picking up 3 seats.  The problem of course is that if they do and it is 50/50 you have Romney who will torpedo Trump every chance he gets. Then there is Murkowski.  If Collins wins which I do not think she is even trying, then it is +4 Republicans which will give them some breathing room.

Another wager I made that I felt had a lot of value is Where the Dems will sweep all 3 branches:

I received 43/57 that they would not, and the line is now 54/46   -11 Pts. This has turned completely around which means to me it has more EV right now at almost getting 3 to 2 against a sweep.

The public is convinced right now it’s going to be a Democrat sweep. Perhaps it will be, but as a bettor typically when everyone is thinking one way the opposite happens more often than not.

I am getting more and more calls from poker players I know wanting to make big wagers on Biden. That in the past has been a good contrarian indicator. Actually one of the best I have had over the years.

We do not have long now to see how this turns out, Should be interesting:)

Good Luck whichever way you are wagering.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Slack: Rickjsports

Political Odds Updates

9/25/17

Tomorrow is the Alabama special election.  When the line came out at 2 to 1 in favor of strange I had mentioned I thought they had the wrong favorite and estimated the line to be closer to 4 to 1 in favor of Moore.

This morning just a day before the election Moore is now a 6 to 1 favorite. And that might be too low.

This is in spite of McConnell pouring millions into the race.

This race should set the tone for establishment republicans vs Trumpers (for lack of a better word)

My theory is that in 2018 it will be the Trumpers that gain rather than the Dems. The big losers will be the establishment Republicans. The mood is sour among the voters. Even more so when Trump got elected.

If Moore does trounce Strange then the numbers on all establishment Republicans who are being primaried are way too high.

Flake was a favorite when the line opened and he is now a 3 to 2 dog. But the primary my guess is he will be closer to a 4 to 1 or even 6 to 1 dog.

Heller the same.

If you’re looking for a long shot, take a look at Ryan. Ryan is a 5 1/2 to 1 favorite. Take the odds. By the primary, it will be no higher than 3 to 1. And if things really go wrong for Ryan closer to even money.

Do not underestimate the anti-establishment mood in the Country.

Another one to look at is whether the Dems will take control of the house. The odds right now slightly favor the Republicans.

In a normal off-year election the party not in control picks up at least 25 to 30 seats.  However, my guess is this will be far from a normal election off year.

I view the odds more like 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. A nice overlay here.

One more that looks good to me is which party will win the White House in 2020. The odds are 55 to 45 in favor of the Democrats. I think they have the wrong favorite here. I put it at 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans at the very least.

Now a lot can happen between now and 2020. But right now It looks like they have the wrong favorite here.

These odds in no way reflect my personal opinions on any issues. I am fortunate enough not to be burdened with any dogmatic ideology. I am purely an issue-driven person. I find myself on occasion on either side depending on the issue.

Now the more interesting question is whether the establishment Republicans will take heed after Strange gets trounced. Most likely not is my guess. They will go down with the establishment ship.

By 2020 McConnell will not be leading the Senate and Ryan if he survives will not be leading the house.

Let’s see how close I come:)

 

9/12/17

Some changes in the political odds since I have posted last:

Moore has moved to a 5.5 to 1 favorite over strange. No surprise to me and I doubt Strange will even get close even with McConnell’s backing.

Both Heller and Flake are now 2 to 1 dogs to win the primary. These should keep going down and by the primary, I suspect closer to 5 to 1 now on each against them winning.

The Republicans have moved to being a slight favorite 106 to 100 to win the house in 2018. Should be closer to 2 to 1 by election day.

Ryan is now 6 to 1 to win the Primary. The Anti establishment movement has not affected this line yet. I believe it will with a good chance Ryan goes the way or Eric Cantor.

A new line looks attractive here. The odds are 101 to 100 that Menendez gets convicted this year. The only risk I can see is if the trial goes past year end or there is a mistrial. Otherwise, I see the odds of a conviction closer to 10 to 1.

I have not been following the speed in which the trial will proceed so that would need to be determined before a wager on it. But it’s rare to see this type of trial go longer than a month once it has begun.

The lines are moving along with my expectations of the Non-Establishment Republicans getting the benefit of the political chaos that has consumed U.S. politics.

We will get a hint of this on September 26th.

Rick

 

 

 

 

 

9/6/17

Not much activity since I last posted. Moore is moving back to over 3 to 1 favorite in the Alabama special election. I had predicted 4 to 1 even when he was a dog but now I am thinking more like 6 to 1. I do not see much chance of Strange beating him.

Flake is hanging around at a 3 to 2 dog in the Arizona primary. This is another I think is way off. I had predicted 5 to 1 against and I think that is giving him the benefit of the doubt. By the primary, my guess is he will be at least a 5 to 1 dog.

Ryan is a 6.5 to 1 favorite in the Wisconsin Primary. I had put him at around 3 to 1 and by the primary, he might even be less than that.

There is a new matchup posted on Rosenstein. He is a 6 to 1 favorite to be deputy AG on 12/31st. This, in my opinion, is contingent as to when and how the Special Counsel wraps up. If Trump gets past the special counsel threat with it being behind him, my guess is Sessions and Rosenstein will be shown the door.

Now he might wait until after the 2018 elections but that would be a bit of a gamble. So this is a line that is hard to evaluate as its contingent on many variables. All of which I would not hazard a guess on.

Things will be clearer on this soon is my guess.

One I like a lot now is Heller to lose the NV Primary. He is a 2 to 1 favorite to win it and my thought is he should be a 3 to 1 dog. But the primary it would not surprise me to see the odds switched on this one.

That should bring you up to date on these. The first that is coming up is Moore vs Strange. That should give the first clue as to how bad the Republican establishment is going to get hit in the primaries. My feeling is it will be brutal.

Rick

 

 

8/31/17

A few changes in the odds since my last post. Moore has changed from 4 to 1 to 7 to 3. One thing to note about these lines is that the liquidity is so small that any size wager will move the lines. 4 to 1 is still my prediction as to the proper line in favor of Moore.

Kasich has moved down to 5 to 4 favorite to run in 2020. I have not changed my opinion as to it being 5 to 2. If he does decide to run and its Kasich vs Trump in the Primary I put Trump as a 5 to 1 favorite over Kasich. That might even be a bit on the low side.

Control of the House has moved to even money now from 5 to 4. My prediction is control of house 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans.

Flake is still a 6 to 4 dog to win the Az primary. This is one of the best values Ii see on the political odds screen. I view him as at least a 5 to 1 dog.  I commented on this when Flake was a 2 to 1 favorite!

The 2nd best is Ryan in the primary. Ryan is staying steady at 5 to 1 favorite. The line was 7.5 to 1 when I put out the play. I view the odds at no more than 3 to 1. And I would not be surprised to see the line close to 2 to 1 by the primary.

My view is that Establishment Republicans are going to get crushed in 2018. However not by the Dems but by nonestablishment Republicans.  Nothing has changed in the way the electorate views Congress except that their view is worse than it was when Trump was elected if that is possible.

Congress has been blind to this and by the time they wake up if ever, it will be too late. From the Russia investigation to not condemning Antifa the mistakes keep piling up. And importantly the people’s business has been thrown aside for partisan politics by both parties.

I do not see this changing. It appears to me it is only going to get worse as both Ryan and McConnell now are going out of their way to speak out against Trump. In addition, Trump has learned that appeasement is not the right course with Congress. He has now chosen a path of direct confrontation.

That leads me to Trump’s agenda. We saw what happened to health care. I expect a similar fate on tax cuts, immigration, debt ceiling and the wall. Congress as I see it will do whatever they can to make sure Trump has not delivered on his major campaign promises. As McCain said after casting the deciding vote on the Health care bill. “Let’s see Trump Make America great now!  Or something to that effect.

The mistake the Republican’s are making is thinking that their actions will hurt Trump. I doubt the base will go for it. My guess is as I have stated Establishment Republicans are going to take the hit in the primaries and in the General it will be the Dems.

I do not say this with glee however as the two party system is essential to provide a proper balance in a Democracy. So hopefully there will be moderates on both sides to provide some leadership before we turn into a one party system.

I will post updates every few days as I see the odds change and new situations posted.

If anyone has any questions regarding the odds of a certain event feel free to comment on this site or send me an email at [email protected]

 

 

 

8/29/17

Moore holding steady as a 4 to 1 favorite. It hit my target of 4 to 1 about 2 weeks ago after Moore being a dog a few months ago when I pointed out the EV on the wager.

Flake has now moved to a 2 to 1 dog. Moving nicely to my 5 to 1 target. I have very little doubt it will get there.

Ryan is now down to 5 to 1 moving closer to my 3 to 1 target. I suspect 3 to 1 might be too generous as by primary time he may be closer to even money.

Kasich has now moved to a 2 to 1 favorite to run in 2020. Getting close to my 5 to 2.

Nothing new lately on political odds that looks good to me. One that I would like to see as who is the first to go If Trump gets the Russia issue behind him, including the special counsel.

My guess is it will be Sessions. Although he might wait until after the 2018 primaries. I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

That’s it for this morning. Always interesting to evaluate political odds. Many variables to consider:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks



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