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Is laying 5 to 2 that Trump will finish his first term an overlay? My thoughts.

Its been several months, and the midterms are long past. So lets take a look at some of the political odds that are shaping up heading into the first of the year 22019.

Most of the odds right now revolve around President Trump. Its almost like betting the superbowl. You can find odds on every conceivable situation. From number of tweets before noon to impeachment.

Lets start out with what I think is an interesting line. The Trump leaving odds.

The odds right now of Trump having a full term are about 5 to 2 in favor of a full term. Now, try to be objective and think about that one for a second. The U.S. has the lowest unemployment in almost every nationality in the U.S. in history, GDP is projected to be an astonishing 3% in 2020, Manufacturing jobs are coming back to the U.S. , the Korean peninsula is on the mend, without a missile being fired for over a year while Kim continues to communicate directly with President Trump, NAFTA has been successfully renegotiated for the benefit of the American worker, and more.

Yet, the odds are only 5 to 2 that he finishes his term?

That my friends is the power of the media. Gas lighting as so accurately explained in:

https://www.amazon.com/Smear-Shady-Political-Operatives-Control/dp/0062468162

Or as adequately explained in Sharyl’s Ted talk on Astroturfing and the media:

The reason I am mentioning this, is not only to attempt to educate people on the power of media control but also to explain the rather bizzare 5 to 2 odds, in light of what I perceive as a pretty successful first 2 years of a presidency.

As a gambler always looking for overlays, this gaslighting , while destroying the country creates betting opportunities:) Its not really that humorous but what is one to do but appreciate a positive in all this negativity. So we might as well profit from it if we can.

The bottom line is lay the 5 to 2 and sleep well at night. Trump is not going anywhere his first term.

If you think Trump is a demon from hell, and worst of the worst, then you have been gas lighted. Now you may have policy disagreements, as I do with both sides from time to time. But Trump is just a human like any of us.

Not your typical politician like “You can keep your Dr. Obama, Backstabbing smooth talking Romney, Mission accomplished Bush or I did not have sex Clinton.”

He is a builder from NYC. Tough, street fighter, and as Bobby Knight and Jon Voight so accurately put it, Trump is a person that loves America.

Now there is a caveat to this wager that needs to be mentioned. If you are going to wager any significant amount of money on it, make sure that if there is an assassination or an assassination attempt that incapacitates Trump all bets are off. Although the odds are very low, in today’s divided America you need to make sure you have that provision in the wager.

I end these posts with the disclaimer that I support Trump. However, I an independent who voted for Obama his first term. I have been a Democrat, Republican and an independent over the years. I am issue driven not ideologically driven. And I have an uncanny sense of sorting through the chaos to arrive at reality.

Over my poker playing years I have made a lot of money wagering with other poker players on political events or situations. Some of these wagers would almost make you laugh. From a wager laying 10 to 1 that Jerry Brown would win the governor race in Ca ( the real odds were most likely 1000 to 1) to all sorts of situational wagers that had significant overlays.

In addition, my world view can be explained in Max Von Sydows closing argument in the movie “Snow falling over cedars”

So lay the 5 to 2 on what is assuredly a 100 to 1 shot. You will not find that kind of overlay betting on sports:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

Skype: riccja

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Understanding the Trump Phenonenon

A lot has been said about Trump’s supporters. They come from all over the country. Actually all over the world.

It’s a phenomenon that is rarely seen. You have people, common everyday people, that are enthralled with Trump. You hear them talking his name in every corner of the World.

Even in places you would not think possible. As recently as a few weeks ago the citizens in Tijanua on the street were saying “Trump is right”

Its a phenonomon that is very difficult to put into words what has drawn such a diverse group of people to this man.

The media and Trump’s critics would have you believe Trump supporters are a homogeneous group all with the same characteristics. Backward, dullwitted, uneducated, no exposure to the outside world, no concept of how the world really works, wedded to guns and religion, and the list goes on.

But nothing could be further from reality.
Its people from all walks of life, from all educational backgrounds, from all religions, sexual preferences, races, and genders.

As you look over the cross section of Trump supporter’s there is one common theme that exists among each and every one. The belief that Trump is genuine. A person that “what you see is what you get”. No subterfuge, no deception. But the plain truth as he sees the issues that effect the U.S. and the world.

Which just coincidently is how his supporters see things. and more coincidently how thing really are. In other words a politician for the first time I can remember, tells people how things really are. No sugar coating.
Someone that actually tells Americans what reality is.

No smooth talking deceptions. Just here it is and here is what I am going to do about it and why. Now think back, when was the last politician you can recall that ever was like that. You will be thinking a very long time.

But still it is very difficult to put into words what draws people to Trump.

So since I doubt I can come up with the words there are two scenes from ” West Wing” that explain the concept we are seeing.

The first is the scene between Josh and Sam , when they meet in NYC and they talk about what they are doing:


The second is when Josh goes for the first time and hears Bartlet speak:



These two scenes reflect what every Trump supporter thinks and goes through their minds when they listen to Trump. Trump supporters have the same look on their face that Josh had at the end of Bartlet’s speach. Each and every time.

Its a magic that cannot be put into words. Because afterall, the U.S. has had politicians that instead of telling things like they are , tell us deceptions to get to their end desire.

Whether it was health care, the Iran deal, going into Iraq, etc they were all built on intentional falsehoods. The sad part is that Americans have become used to that.

Its been going along so long that it has become accepted as the way things just are. Its like we all have been in a coma not knowing what things could be like. After all, politicians, are going to do what they do best, lie and steal. We all know that and accept it now.

But then along comes someone that is the most unusual Bartlet you can find. Someone that comes out of nowhere and beats 16 other well established and well funded Republicans in the Primaries, and then goes on to beat the Clinton machine.

So unusual, that the Clinton strategy was to make sure Trump got the nomination! Working with her puppets in the media, they gave Trump all the air time he wanted, and positive. Until after the primary:)

But a serious miscalculation was made by the establishment.

For 63 million Americans, a lightbulb went off. The same light bulb that went off when Josh listened to Barlett’s Dairy speech.

But for many that light bulb is so dim, that it did not go off. For many, that listen to the entrenched establishment media, a different reality set in. A reality that is so perverse that it defies explanation.

DC has become so corrupt and efficient in its methods of brainwashing the public that they have done their jobs well. So well, that if you took the timelines of many of the people on twitter, and had them analysed by a psychiatrist, the results would be frightening.

But that is a subject for another day:)

What Trump’s supporters see is what Josh saw in Barlet when he gave the Dairy farmer speech. Josh’s face is the face of each and every Trump supporter every time they listen to Trump. And it is a feeling that gives them hope for the American values they grew up knowing and loving surviving this dark time in American history.

Hope that for the first time the U.S. has a chance to be saved from the corrupt sickness that has undertaken D.C.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Rickjshandicappingpicks.com/politicalodds

Skype: riccja

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Political Odds updated post on Georgia and Florida, Two long shot + EV wagers.

Post midterm election update:
 
There are several bets I see that seem to me to have a lot of value at this point.
 
Georgia Governor’s race is 9 to 1 in favor of Kemp
 
Florida Senate Race is 8 to 1 in favor of Scott.
 
To me, there is value in both dogs at this point. Both races it was clear the favorites had won easily. But, post-election maneuvering has brought both into question to me.
 
Normally I would say very little chance of either Dog winning. But, considering what has been going on you cannot rule it out.
 
I would not wager the farm on either of these, but for long shot plays they both look very attractive to me.
 
I might think differently if there were active measures by the Republican party to stop this, or by the FBI or DOJ. But so far, except for a few exceptions, crickets.
 
I would take the 9 to 1 on Adams and the 8 to 1 on Guiiium at this point.
 
Has to be value here considering what we are seeing being played out daily.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds
Skype: riccja
 
 
 

Political Odds Updates

9/25/17

Tomorrow is the Alabama special election.  When the line came out at 2 to 1 in favor of strange I had mentioned I thought they had the wrong favorite and estimated the line to be closer to 4 to 1 in favor of Moore.

This morning just a day before the election Moore is now a 6 to 1 favorite. And that might be too low.

This is in spite of McConnell pouring millions into the race.

This race should set the tone for establishment republicans vs Trumpers (for lack of a better word)

My theory is that in 2018 it will be the Trumpers that gain rather than the Dems. The big losers will be the establishment Republicans. The mood is sour among the voters. Even more so when Trump got elected.

If Moore does trounce Strange then the numbers on all establishment Republicans who are being primaried are way too high.

Flake was a favorite when the line opened and he is now a 3 to 2 dog. But the primary my guess is he will be closer to a 4 to 1 or even 6 to 1 dog.

Heller the same.

If you’re looking for a long shot, take a look at Ryan. Ryan is a 5 1/2 to 1 favorite. Take the odds. By the primary, it will be no higher than 3 to 1. And if things really go wrong for Ryan closer to even money.

Do not underestimate the anti-establishment mood in the Country.

Another one to look at is whether the Dems will take control of the house. The odds right now slightly favor the Republicans.

In a normal off-year election the party not in control picks up at least 25 to 30 seats.  However, my guess is this will be far from a normal election off year.

I view the odds more like 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. A nice overlay here.

One more that looks good to me is which party will win the White House in 2020. The odds are 55 to 45 in favor of the Democrats. I think they have the wrong favorite here. I put it at 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans at the very least.

Now a lot can happen between now and 2020. But right now It looks like they have the wrong favorite here.

These odds in no way reflect my personal opinions on any issues. I am fortunate enough not to be burdened with any dogmatic ideology. I am purely an issue-driven person. I find myself on occasion on either side depending on the issue.

Now the more interesting question is whether the establishment Republicans will take heed after Strange gets trounced. Most likely not is my guess. They will go down with the establishment ship.

By 2020 McConnell will not be leading the Senate and Ryan if he survives will not be leading the house.

Let’s see how close I come:)

 

9/12/17

Some changes in the political odds since I have posted last:

Moore has moved to a 5.5 to 1 favorite over strange. No surprise to me and I doubt Strange will even get close even with McConnell’s backing.

Both Heller and Flake are now 2 to 1 dogs to win the primary. These should keep going down and by the primary, I suspect closer to 5 to 1 now on each against them winning.

The Republicans have moved to being a slight favorite 106 to 100 to win the house in 2018. Should be closer to 2 to 1 by election day.

Ryan is now 6 to 1 to win the Primary. The Anti establishment movement has not affected this line yet. I believe it will with a good chance Ryan goes the way or Eric Cantor.

A new line looks attractive here. The odds are 101 to 100 that Menendez gets convicted this year. The only risk I can see is if the trial goes past year end or there is a mistrial. Otherwise, I see the odds of a conviction closer to 10 to 1.

I have not been following the speed in which the trial will proceed so that would need to be determined before a wager on it. But it’s rare to see this type of trial go longer than a month once it has begun.

The lines are moving along with my expectations of the Non-Establishment Republicans getting the benefit of the political chaos that has consumed U.S. politics.

We will get a hint of this on September 26th.

Rick

 

 

 

 

 

9/6/17

Not much activity since I last posted. Moore is moving back to over 3 to 1 favorite in the Alabama special election. I had predicted 4 to 1 even when he was a dog but now I am thinking more like 6 to 1. I do not see much chance of Strange beating him.

Flake is hanging around at a 3 to 2 dog in the Arizona primary. This is another I think is way off. I had predicted 5 to 1 against and I think that is giving him the benefit of the doubt. By the primary, my guess is he will be at least a 5 to 1 dog.

Ryan is a 6.5 to 1 favorite in the Wisconsin Primary. I had put him at around 3 to 1 and by the primary, he might even be less than that.

There is a new matchup posted on Rosenstein. He is a 6 to 1 favorite to be deputy AG on 12/31st. This, in my opinion, is contingent as to when and how the Special Counsel wraps up. If Trump gets past the special counsel threat with it being behind him, my guess is Sessions and Rosenstein will be shown the door.

Now he might wait until after the 2018 elections but that would be a bit of a gamble. So this is a line that is hard to evaluate as its contingent on many variables. All of which I would not hazard a guess on.

Things will be clearer on this soon is my guess.

One I like a lot now is Heller to lose the NV Primary. He is a 2 to 1 favorite to win it and my thought is he should be a 3 to 1 dog. But the primary it would not surprise me to see the odds switched on this one.

That should bring you up to date on these. The first that is coming up is Moore vs Strange. That should give the first clue as to how bad the Republican establishment is going to get hit in the primaries. My feeling is it will be brutal.

Rick

 

 

8/31/17

A few changes in the odds since my last post. Moore has changed from 4 to 1 to 7 to 3. One thing to note about these lines is that the liquidity is so small that any size wager will move the lines. 4 to 1 is still my prediction as to the proper line in favor of Moore.

Kasich has moved down to 5 to 4 favorite to run in 2020. I have not changed my opinion as to it being 5 to 2. If he does decide to run and its Kasich vs Trump in the Primary I put Trump as a 5 to 1 favorite over Kasich. That might even be a bit on the low side.

Control of the House has moved to even money now from 5 to 4. My prediction is control of house 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans.

Flake is still a 6 to 4 dog to win the Az primary. This is one of the best values Ii see on the political odds screen. I view him as at least a 5 to 1 dog.  I commented on this when Flake was a 2 to 1 favorite!

The 2nd best is Ryan in the primary. Ryan is staying steady at 5 to 1 favorite. The line was 7.5 to 1 when I put out the play. I view the odds at no more than 3 to 1. And I would not be surprised to see the line close to 2 to 1 by the primary.

My view is that Establishment Republicans are going to get crushed in 2018. However not by the Dems but by nonestablishment Republicans.  Nothing has changed in the way the electorate views Congress except that their view is worse than it was when Trump was elected if that is possible.

Congress has been blind to this and by the time they wake up if ever, it will be too late. From the Russia investigation to not condemning Antifa the mistakes keep piling up. And importantly the people’s business has been thrown aside for partisan politics by both parties.

I do not see this changing. It appears to me it is only going to get worse as both Ryan and McConnell now are going out of their way to speak out against Trump. In addition, Trump has learned that appeasement is not the right course with Congress. He has now chosen a path of direct confrontation.

That leads me to Trump’s agenda. We saw what happened to health care. I expect a similar fate on tax cuts, immigration, debt ceiling and the wall. Congress as I see it will do whatever they can to make sure Trump has not delivered on his major campaign promises. As McCain said after casting the deciding vote on the Health care bill. “Let’s see Trump Make America great now!  Or something to that effect.

The mistake the Republican’s are making is thinking that their actions will hurt Trump. I doubt the base will go for it. My guess is as I have stated Establishment Republicans are going to take the hit in the primaries and in the General it will be the Dems.

I do not say this with glee however as the two party system is essential to provide a proper balance in a Democracy. So hopefully there will be moderates on both sides to provide some leadership before we turn into a one party system.

I will post updates every few days as I see the odds change and new situations posted.

If anyone has any questions regarding the odds of a certain event feel free to comment on this site or send me an email at [email protected]

 

 

 

8/29/17

Moore holding steady as a 4 to 1 favorite. It hit my target of 4 to 1 about 2 weeks ago after Moore being a dog a few months ago when I pointed out the EV on the wager.

Flake has now moved to a 2 to 1 dog. Moving nicely to my 5 to 1 target. I have very little doubt it will get there.

Ryan is now down to 5 to 1 moving closer to my 3 to 1 target. I suspect 3 to 1 might be too generous as by primary time he may be closer to even money.

Kasich has now moved to a 2 to 1 favorite to run in 2020. Getting close to my 5 to 2.

Nothing new lately on political odds that looks good to me. One that I would like to see as who is the first to go If Trump gets the Russia issue behind him, including the special counsel.

My guess is it will be Sessions. Although he might wait until after the 2018 primaries. I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

That’s it for this morning. Always interesting to evaluate political odds. Many variables to consider:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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