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Political Odds primary observations along with some general election commentary

Its a slow time now, with only MLB going and in a few weeks College football starts and then the NFL.

MLB is hovering around breakeven for the season, with Totals the standout , and despite beating the closing line by almost 70% on the overnights the plays are slightly negative for the season.

So, the special could go either way at this point:)

But, now is a good time to take a look at political odds. We are rapidly approaching primary season where to me there are some outstanding wagers.

I had the opinion that fading Republicans that were running in the primary that either voted to impeach Trump or convict him  would be a very profitable across the board wager.

This was reinforced by Ohio, where the Establishment spent massive amounts of money to prevent Trump’s pick, Mike Kerry. Not only did he win but he won easily considering the crowed Republican field.

So lets look at some of the odds on Predictit.org.

To start off I had a few questions about several races.

The first was what I felt was Newsom’s chances of being recalled in Ca. The odds this morning are 3 to 1 against him being recalled. That line appears about right to me. I know the headlines are that he is in trouble, however, the way the mail in voting is set up in Ca, I doubt anyone can beat him. The line would have to be much higher for me to consider betting against the recall.

The second was whether Cuomo would resign. The odds right now are 3 to 1 against him resigning by 9/17 but its a bit over 3/1 that he will not be in  office by the end of the year.  My guess is a deal will eventually be made and he will retire quietly. So both lines to me are hard to wager on as there are external forces that are unknown going on behind the scenes daily on this one. Best to stay away from this wager.

Republicans are a bit over a 2 to 1 favorite to retake the House. That looks about right to me. Most of the recent elections seem to bear that out. If anything 2 to 1 seems a bit low. But I do not see any value right now betting either side of this one.

The Senate last I looked was a toss up. The value is on the Republicans at a toss up, however, never underestimate the Republicans self destructing which they are doing right now. A lot will hinge on the primary. If the establishment is successful in winning primary’s then there is a reasonable chance the base will not come out. Ga is a good example of that.

If however a lot of establishment Republicans get upset in the primary, then the chances of a Republican lead senate increase substantially.  This of course is contrary to the idea that the incumbent has the edge. However, among the Republican base, the establishment Republicans have such a low approval rating that I do not think this factors in this time.

All in all I would put the line at 3 to2 in favor of the Republicans taking back the Senate.

The best wager I can see is to fade every Republican in the primary that voted to impeach Trump or convict him. I would not cherry pick these but just wager the same amount across the board.

Regardless of your feelings toward Trump, the fact is the base is still behind him. I do not think the primary season will be kind to those that voted against him on impeachment.

Some of the more vocal members :

Kinzinger is a 3 to 1 dog to win the primary

Cheney is a 5 to  2 dog

Murkowsi is a 6 to 4  favorite

Lines are not up on many of the races yet. However, fade them all, and I doubt you will be negative when the smoke clears.

Another interesting wager revolves around McCarthy. McCarthy’s popularity is getting lower and lower. I do not think he is an automatic to win the his House seat although as of right now I do not see a serious challenger. It is a race to watch for an opportunity.

The other is Rubio in Florida. Here again the field is not set and as of yet no on serious has come forward. Make no mistake Rubio is as establishment as they come. If he gets a serious opponent the line is going to be very high in Rubio’s favor. This would be an excellent long shot wager in my opinion. We will have to see how this develops.

You have several things to weigh here. There will be massive amounts of money going to support the establishment Republicans. Also the RNC will be behind the establishment candidate. A good example is Herschel Walker in Georgia. The establishment Republicans have already come out against him, even though the reality is he would be an easy winner in the general. 

The establishment Republicans are driven not be who is most likely to succeed but who is most likely to  not make waves once they get into office. This strategy has cost them seats the most recent being in Alabama when they cancelled Mo Brooks and ended up losing a Senate seat in Deep Red Alabama, and the Ga, where both candidates, both unpopular establishment tow the line candidates, could not muster the base in red Georgia. Collins on the other hand would have been an easy Senate pick up, which McConnell nixed out of hand.

Essentially what you have is the establishment Republicans giving up EV, for the sake of not giving up their own power. And it is costing them dearly. The failure to accept reality in politics is probably the worst mistake you can make. In what world does a party think they can win by alienating its base??? Yet, the Republican continue on this self destructive path with  no end in site. 

So as I see it, the voters will decide the general primary season. 

Now,  I could of course be wrong:)  But to me its pretty clear as to  the dynamics  at work. The establishment Republicans war on Trump and his supporters may well do them in as a  viable party.

The only thing that I can see that would prevent this is the Democrat strategy. The Democrats had a rare opportunity this time around. Over 75 million Americans voted for Trump, which consists of almost 90% of the Republican  base. One thing they have in common with many of the Democrats is their distaste for the establishment Republicans.

The Democrats have chosen a strategy that not only does not take advantage of this, but gives the base a “Sophies Choice” so to speak. Two impossible choices, which the end result may well be forcing them to choose establishment Republicans. 

All the Democrats had to do was move a bit to the center, not demonize Trump voters, and praise Trump for some of his policies. This could have  moved a large % of the Trump supporters who could not stomach the Republican establishment to consider voting Democrat this time around. But, the Dems not only did the exact opposite, they did it in spades.

It seems neither side has the ability to shift gears. That is what is going to  make this election season a crapshoot. Except of course in the Republican primary when the base is going to come out in record numbers to consider that it is their patriotic duty to get rid of the “traitors” that voted to impeach or convict Trump.

So simply right now, the only wager I can see that has a lot of EV is the fade I have been talking about. 

I will  have more as the races become more defined.

Remember football season is almost here. You can subscribe by going to rickjshandicappingpicks.com, and choosing the subscription of choice from the drop down PayPal menu. All subscriptions have a 3 day free trial.

Also if you have any questions you can email me at [email protected] and  I will answer them for you.

I have had this site for almost 20 years now and have successfully weathered the ups and downs of sports betting while keeping variance at a reasonable limit.

My plays are sent out via twitter, email and now Slack.

As an added feature that is included in the subscription, I post most of my stock trades on slack. My trades consist of mean reversion, pullback , income trades and also 2 day short put sales.

The 2 day short put sales are made on Thursday with Friday expiration. These have been as solid a method as you will find so far. 325 Trades  306 winners 19 losers with a 94.15% success rate and a  profit factor of 3.89.   The drawdowns have been minimal.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Twitter: rickjsportplays

Slack: rickjsports

 

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MLB Season to date through the end of July, along with other observations.

Thinks are settling down a bit around here so I am going to start posting regularly again. It has been a hectic 5 months.

MLB is now through the end of July and here are the season to date results:

 

2021 Season to date: +1.72

Overnight Sides: with additional stats  (April)
20-21   +.33 (.003% ROI)
Advantage to closing line
+6.90 per game over closing line  31-8-3 (79.48%)
Top to Bottom swing to date 5.48 (+2.98/-2.50)Overnight Sides: with additional stats (MAY)
22-28  -6.13
Advantage to closing line
+3.98 per game over closing line  29-19-3 (60.41%)
Top to Bottom swing to date 14.96 (+8.81/-6.15)
Regular 1 Unit Total 0-4    -4.40
Combined: May to date:  -10.55
Top to Bottom Swing on Regular total Plays (0-4.4)Overnight Sides: with additional stats (June)
28-29  +2.61
Advantage to closing line
+3.79 per game over closing line  39-19-1 (67.24%)
Top to Bottom swing to date 10.98 (+10.98/0)
Regular 1 Unit Total 6-3    +2.95
Combined: June to date:  +5.56
Top to Bottom Swing on Regular total Plays (2.0-.05)Overnight Sides: with additional stats( July)
16-16  -1.30
Advantage to closing line
+5.45  per game over closing line  14-15-2 (.50%)
Top to Bottom swing to date 4.00 (+0/-4.00)
Regular 1 Unit Total 9-1    +7.85
Combined: July to date:  +6.55
Top to Bottom Swing on Regular total Plays (2.0-.00Combined Season to date results:
Overnight Sides: with additional stats (April May June July)
86-95 -4.68
Season to date -4.68 (Overnights)
Season To Date: Regular 1 UNIT Totals 15-8  +6.40
2021 Season to date: +1.88
Advantage to closing line
+4.39  per game over closing line  109-58-10 (65.8%)
Top to Bottom swing to date 11.80(+7.83/-3.97)
Top to Bottom swing to date 6.40 (2/-4.4)  1 Unit

A lot of information here:)

We are +1.72 units through the end of July. We started out 0-7 on the MLB Totals and now sit at 15-8 , a 15-1 run since the slow start. The totals have kept up in the positive for the year overall. These Totals are not overnights but a method I have been using successfully over the last 15 years or so in MLB.

As you know my special is that If I do not have a winning season in MLB everyone that subscribed from day 1 gets a 50% refund.  I run this every MLB season.

The NBA is now past. And here is the final tally:

Season to Date Sides Regular Season: 36-32-1
Post Season Sides : 8-5
Combined regular and post season sides : 43-37-1
Season to Date Live bets: 1-0
Season to Date Sides: 2nd half 0-1
Season to Date Totals: 7-15
Season to Date Totals 1st Half 0-4
Season to Date Sides: Post Season Live Bets 1-0
Season to Date Sides : Post Season 1st Half 2-1
Season to Date Sides: Post Season full game 6-5
Combined Season to date: 53-58-1

Sides were disappointing but yet again totals were solid. But not enough to give us a winning season this year.

The NFL and College football is right around the corner.

Last Season we had a nice gain:

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My westgate 5 NFL picks, Westgate 5 top contest picks. Season to date in all sports, comments on political odds My thoughts for a Sunday morning.

In College Football on Sat we went 2-1 on Sides and 0-1 on totals for a 2-2 day. That brings my record in College football season to date at

Sides 18-19

Totals 7-2

Combined: 25-21  54.34%

In The NFL Season to date:

Sides 9-5

Totals 1-2

Combined 10-7   58.8%

I have sent out 1 play to subscribers for this weekend so far in the NFL

In the All spread contest where I pick every game against the spread I sit at 87-76 Season to date or 53.37%. I have been slipping in this contest:)  Last season I was over 55%.

I send all my all spread contest picks to subscribers the day of the game along with my analysis of each game.

College Hoops has started and we are off to a reasonable start after just a few days of games:

Season to date we are 4-2 on Totals in College Hoops.

In The Westgate NFL Contest Picks, My 5 picks based upon their lines this week are:

Detroit +3 (L)

Atl +3

NE +2.5

Chargers +5.5

NO -6  ( in the westgate they put the lines out early)

Last week The Top 5 contest picks went 0-5 bringing their record to 25-20-1

The Westgate Top 5 contest picks this week are:

Sea

LV

Ten

Giants

NO

I am with NO and fading LV.

The bottom 5 picks this week are:

Balt

Wash

Det

GB

Jax

I am on one of the bottom 5 this week and it has already lost.

All of my election bets have settled and fading the House races where Trump won in 2016 turned out to be very profitable. Unfortunately, I could only find lines on about 16 out of 30. I will post the results of these soon in the political odds section

My three biggest wagers this election were: 1. Florida to Trump 2. the 30 House races and 3. Trump’s final result vs the poll predictions.

I had also wagered on Trump to win at 45/55 and on election night laid it off at 80/20 for a nice profit. I bet on Florida twice. I laid off the first wager for a profit, then bet it again when it became clear to me Florida was a cinch for Trump. It was never in doubt. On the wager regarding the final result vs the polls I had wagered 850 to win 8500. I laid that wager off for an 850.00 profit.

The advantage of wagering with predictit is you can lay wagers off easily. The disadvantage is you pay a % of your win and then when you cash out they take an additional 5%. It’s a steep price, but considering the spread is often close you are not giving up the automatic 5% you give up in sports betting. In addition, the markets are usually influenced by the polls and the public even more than in sports betting. There are not as many sharp bettors as there now seems to be in the sports betting markets.

That does not mean political betting is over. There are some interesting lines coming out now and I will talk about these soon.

As many of you know I have added slack to my method of sending out plays. There are two parts to my slack account. One for my investment side where I share all my stock and option trades. The other is the sports side where you get my plays, analysis, and have the ability to chat with me in real-time during the day.

I have sub-boards where subscribers can interact with each other also on a variety of topics.

If you wish to join us for the next 30 days I have made it easy for you:

https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/Rickjsports/49

Sign up now and I will have you signed on within minutes.

My goal is not only to produce positive EV plays but to keep subscribers out of trouble. I have been doing this online for over 20 years now!!!

As you know gamblers have a propensity to get in trouble, I was once one of them:)  That is why I try to educate as much as I try to produce winning plays.

I had an excellent Political Betting election season this year.  I had mentioned that I laid off my Trump to win wager and received a rather rude email essentially accusing me of not telling the truth:)

I proceeded to send the person my tickets from Predict it along with the dates and times of the wagers. Essentially I got 45/55 on Trump when I made the wager and then the evening of Nov 3rd laid it off at a tad over 80/20.

Now unless you were wagering on Predictit you would not have had that opportunity. Which despite the high cost of wagering there, the flexibility makes up for it, rather than going through traditional books.

I have been handicapping online for over 20 years now successfully, and I challenge anyone to point out where I have been anything but transparent:)  I can say over the 20 years I have not misrepresented anything on my wagers.

Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Slack: Rickjsports

 

 

 

Political Odds Updates

9/25/17

Tomorrow is the Alabama special election.  When the line came out at 2 to 1 in favor of strange I had mentioned I thought they had the wrong favorite and estimated the line to be closer to 4 to 1 in favor of Moore.

This morning just a day before the election Moore is now a 6 to 1 favorite. And that might be too low.

This is in spite of McConnell pouring millions into the race.

This race should set the tone for establishment republicans vs Trumpers (for lack of a better word)

My theory is that in 2018 it will be the Trumpers that gain rather than the Dems. The big losers will be the establishment Republicans. The mood is sour among the voters. Even more so when Trump got elected.

If Moore does trounce Strange then the numbers on all establishment Republicans who are being primaried are way too high.

Flake was a favorite when the line opened and he is now a 3 to 2 dog. But the primary my guess is he will be closer to a 4 to 1 or even 6 to 1 dog.

Heller the same.

If you’re looking for a long shot, take a look at Ryan. Ryan is a 5 1/2 to 1 favorite. Take the odds. By the primary, it will be no higher than 3 to 1. And if things really go wrong for Ryan closer to even money.

Do not underestimate the anti-establishment mood in the Country.

Another one to look at is whether the Dems will take control of the house. The odds right now slightly favor the Republicans.

In a normal off-year election the party not in control picks up at least 25 to 30 seats.  However, my guess is this will be far from a normal election off year.

I view the odds more like 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. A nice overlay here.

One more that looks good to me is which party will win the White House in 2020. The odds are 55 to 45 in favor of the Democrats. I think they have the wrong favorite here. I put it at 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans at the very least.

Now a lot can happen between now and 2020. But right now It looks like they have the wrong favorite here.

These odds in no way reflect my personal opinions on any issues. I am fortunate enough not to be burdened with any dogmatic ideology. I am purely an issue-driven person. I find myself on occasion on either side depending on the issue.

Now the more interesting question is whether the establishment Republicans will take heed after Strange gets trounced. Most likely not is my guess. They will go down with the establishment ship.

By 2020 McConnell will not be leading the Senate and Ryan if he survives will not be leading the house.

Let’s see how close I come:)

 

9/12/17

Some changes in the political odds since I have posted last:

Moore has moved to a 5.5 to 1 favorite over strange. No surprise to me and I doubt Strange will even get close even with McConnell’s backing.

Both Heller and Flake are now 2 to 1 dogs to win the primary. These should keep going down and by the primary, I suspect closer to 5 to 1 now on each against them winning.

The Republicans have moved to being a slight favorite 106 to 100 to win the house in 2018. Should be closer to 2 to 1 by election day.

Ryan is now 6 to 1 to win the Primary. The Anti establishment movement has not affected this line yet. I believe it will with a good chance Ryan goes the way or Eric Cantor.

A new line looks attractive here. The odds are 101 to 100 that Menendez gets convicted this year. The only risk I can see is if the trial goes past year end or there is a mistrial. Otherwise, I see the odds of a conviction closer to 10 to 1.

I have not been following the speed in which the trial will proceed so that would need to be determined before a wager on it. But it’s rare to see this type of trial go longer than a month once it has begun.

The lines are moving along with my expectations of the Non-Establishment Republicans getting the benefit of the political chaos that has consumed U.S. politics.

We will get a hint of this on September 26th.

Rick

 

 

 

 

 

9/6/17

Not much activity since I last posted. Moore is moving back to over 3 to 1 favorite in the Alabama special election. I had predicted 4 to 1 even when he was a dog but now I am thinking more like 6 to 1. I do not see much chance of Strange beating him.

Flake is hanging around at a 3 to 2 dog in the Arizona primary. This is another I think is way off. I had predicted 5 to 1 against and I think that is giving him the benefit of the doubt. By the primary, my guess is he will be at least a 5 to 1 dog.

Ryan is a 6.5 to 1 favorite in the Wisconsin Primary. I had put him at around 3 to 1 and by the primary, he might even be less than that.

There is a new matchup posted on Rosenstein. He is a 6 to 1 favorite to be deputy AG on 12/31st. This, in my opinion, is contingent as to when and how the Special Counsel wraps up. If Trump gets past the special counsel threat with it being behind him, my guess is Sessions and Rosenstein will be shown the door.

Now he might wait until after the 2018 elections but that would be a bit of a gamble. So this is a line that is hard to evaluate as its contingent on many variables. All of which I would not hazard a guess on.

Things will be clearer on this soon is my guess.

One I like a lot now is Heller to lose the NV Primary. He is a 2 to 1 favorite to win it and my thought is he should be a 3 to 1 dog. But the primary it would not surprise me to see the odds switched on this one.

That should bring you up to date on these. The first that is coming up is Moore vs Strange. That should give the first clue as to how bad the Republican establishment is going to get hit in the primaries. My feeling is it will be brutal.

Rick

 

 

8/31/17

A few changes in the odds since my last post. Moore has changed from 4 to 1 to 7 to 3. One thing to note about these lines is that the liquidity is so small that any size wager will move the lines. 4 to 1 is still my prediction as to the proper line in favor of Moore.

Kasich has moved down to 5 to 4 favorite to run in 2020. I have not changed my opinion as to it being 5 to 2. If he does decide to run and its Kasich vs Trump in the Primary I put Trump as a 5 to 1 favorite over Kasich. That might even be a bit on the low side.

Control of the House has moved to even money now from 5 to 4. My prediction is control of house 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans.

Flake is still a 6 to 4 dog to win the Az primary. This is one of the best values Ii see on the political odds screen. I view him as at least a 5 to 1 dog.  I commented on this when Flake was a 2 to 1 favorite!

The 2nd best is Ryan in the primary. Ryan is staying steady at 5 to 1 favorite. The line was 7.5 to 1 when I put out the play. I view the odds at no more than 3 to 1. And I would not be surprised to see the line close to 2 to 1 by the primary.

My view is that Establishment Republicans are going to get crushed in 2018. However not by the Dems but by nonestablishment Republicans.  Nothing has changed in the way the electorate views Congress except that their view is worse than it was when Trump was elected if that is possible.

Congress has been blind to this and by the time they wake up if ever, it will be too late. From the Russia investigation to not condemning Antifa the mistakes keep piling up. And importantly the people’s business has been thrown aside for partisan politics by both parties.

I do not see this changing. It appears to me it is only going to get worse as both Ryan and McConnell now are going out of their way to speak out against Trump. In addition, Trump has learned that appeasement is not the right course with Congress. He has now chosen a path of direct confrontation.

That leads me to Trump’s agenda. We saw what happened to health care. I expect a similar fate on tax cuts, immigration, debt ceiling and the wall. Congress as I see it will do whatever they can to make sure Trump has not delivered on his major campaign promises. As McCain said after casting the deciding vote on the Health care bill. “Let’s see Trump Make America great now!  Or something to that effect.

The mistake the Republican’s are making is thinking that their actions will hurt Trump. I doubt the base will go for it. My guess is as I have stated Establishment Republicans are going to take the hit in the primaries and in the General it will be the Dems.

I do not say this with glee however as the two party system is essential to provide a proper balance in a Democracy. So hopefully there will be moderates on both sides to provide some leadership before we turn into a one party system.

I will post updates every few days as I see the odds change and new situations posted.

If anyone has any questions regarding the odds of a certain event feel free to comment on this site or send me an email at [email protected]

 

 

 

8/29/17

Moore holding steady as a 4 to 1 favorite. It hit my target of 4 to 1 about 2 weeks ago after Moore being a dog a few months ago when I pointed out the EV on the wager.

Flake has now moved to a 2 to 1 dog. Moving nicely to my 5 to 1 target. I have very little doubt it will get there.

Ryan is now down to 5 to 1 moving closer to my 3 to 1 target. I suspect 3 to 1 might be too generous as by primary time he may be closer to even money.

Kasich has now moved to a 2 to 1 favorite to run in 2020. Getting close to my 5 to 2.

Nothing new lately on political odds that looks good to me. One that I would like to see as who is the first to go If Trump gets the Russia issue behind him, including the special counsel.

My guess is it will be Sessions. Although he might wait until after the 2018 primaries. I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

That’s it for this morning. Always interesting to evaluate political odds. Many variables to consider:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks



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