Political Odds - Rickj's Handicapping Picks
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NFL Week 2 Comments, 2 new “dirty 30 fades” , some political advice. My thoughts for a Sunday morning

On Saturday we had an easy time of it in college football.  Liberty +15 won the game 30-24 and Abilene Christian +8.5 +105 covered 13-17.  That brings us to 4-1 Season to Date in college football for +2.95 Units.

In the NFL after week 1 we are 1-1 on plays for -.20 units. We have one play so far today I sent out to subscribers. 

Last week my Westgate top 5 picks went 2-3.  In the All Spread Contest, picking every game against the spread I went 6-10:( So after a >55% picks AGS last season I am off to a slow start this season.

I have sent out my all spread contest picks to subscribers.

As I indicated last week for the first time in a long time I did not enter the Westgate contest. The uncertainty surrounding professional sports was the deciding factor. Once things get back to normal (whatever that is) I will enter the contest again.

My 5 Picks this week using the Westgate lines:

Denver +7

Houston +8.5

Chargers +8.5

Carolina +9

Minn +3

After the first 3 things got a lot tougher.  The last one Minn was a crapshoot. As I had nothing really to choose from the way I handicap the games. So I picked what I thought was the best of the worst:)

The Westgate top 5 last week started out 4-1 ATS. Historically it has been profitable to fade the top 5.

This week the Westgate top 5 is:

KC

GB

SF

NYG

Phi

I am fading one of the top 5 and not on any of the rest.

The bottom 5 this week is:

Cincy

Chicago

Cleveland

Jets

Chargers

I am on one of the bottom 5 this week.

For those following my political plays I added two wagers this week to my “dirty 30” wager:

NJ-02  66/34

VA-02 24/76

These are the House races that Trump carried in 2016. That brings the number wagered to 14 of the 30. My plan is to wager on all 30 as the lines are posted.

I am expecting to do no worse than 50% with a net line of +2 to 1 avg on all wagers. If I am correct that is a nice positive EV.

I have been told I am letting my emotions cloud my judgment 🙂  I seriously doubt that. I have always been objective when it comes to any kind of wagering. But who knows, we are all subject to influences some of which we are unaware of. Time will tell:)

As I have said before I have no dog in this fight. I have my opinions, but, am well aware of the brutal nature of politics in the U.S. So I try to stay focused on what is important. Staying safe and my family safe. It is not healthy to invest too much emotional energy in a blood sport like politics. Let the useful idiots do that.

Stay focused and balanced. That is the key, my friends.

One way to test yourself is if you either 1. Think Trump is a god or 2. Trump is a demon from hell, you have lost your perspective. He is neither. He has his good points and bad points as does everyone. Do not let the media and the politicians suck you into their nightmare.

I have seen family and friends succumb to this, and it is not a pretty sight. If you have learned anything over the last 20 years I have been posting on this site, you should have learned there is no black and white. When a large group is trying to tell you something is true, it is probably not true. Always consider the contrarian side, as usual, you will be right more often than not.

I want to give you some examples because I feel this is an important point:

I have a good friend that is an avid Trump hater. He is obsessed with his hatred of Trump. Of all the poker players I have run into over the years there are but a handful I consider friends and he is one of them.

So, needless to say, we do not talk politics:)  But I did mention to him that HCQ was the way to go if you happen to catch COVID. I spent 30 years as a medical negligence attorney and one of my skills is medical research. I came to that conclusion long ago. It is a no brainer. I won’t go into my reasoning but if anyone wants to know just email me.

To make a long story short, his reply was he would not talk anything Drumph recommended.  That my friends is peak TDS.

I will leave it at that, but there are many more examples. This is one I thought many of you might find humorous.

I will give an update soon on my political wagers and my thoughts on the upcoming election. In addition, there is a new line up on the Supreme court pick.

Good Luck Today

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

http://rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Slack: Rickjsports

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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NFL Week 1 comments , New “Dirty 30” fade. My thoughts for a Sunday Morning

A new NFL season is here.  Hopefully, it will not be marred by politics and proceed in the usual course. I am going to go on the assumption that there will be a full season.

Last year in the ALL Spread contest where you pick every game against the spread I hit 55.5% winners:)  In The Westgate where you pick the top 5, it was less than that.

This season is the first season I will not be in the Westgate. I decided against it not only because of the Vig they charge but the political uncertainty throwing another variable into the mix.  I plan on getting back in gear next season.

I did enter the ALL spread contest this season and I will send these picks out to all subscribers Sunday Morning, with my usual comments on each game. 

I started the all spread contest with a win Thursday night on KC. In addition, had a good day in College football with Georgia Tech +13 and UTEP +6 both winning the games outright. I am 2-1 now in college football.

My top 5 picks this week using the Westgate lines:

1. Carolina +3

2Atlanta +2.5

3. Denver +2.5

4. Miami +6.5

5. Cinci +3

Looking over the Westgate top 5:

Buffalo

Rams

Atlanta

Tenn

Arizona

Historically its been a winning proposition to fade these. Although last season you would have had to weather some punishment:)

I am with them on Atlanta and Fading Tenn with Denver.

The bottom 5 this week is :

Houston

KC

Giants

Denver

San Fran

I am on Denver.

Also, the San Fran game is questionable today because of the fires. Not sure what the status of the game is this morning.

For those following my political plays I added one wager to my “dirty 30” wager last week:

NM-02 Republican 42/58  The line is now 45/55.

I now have 12 of the 30 “Dirty 30” faded with an overall 2/3 odds. I expect to win at least 50% of my wagers on these:)  We will see.

There are 18 more to go and as the lines are posted I plan on betting them.

It’s not too late to join us for a fun football season. Just go to the PayPal drop-down menu and subscribe!!!

I have sent out 1 NFL play so far today to Subscribers.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

Rick’Js Handicapping Picks

http://rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Slack: Rickjsports

 

 

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NFL is only 10 days away, also updated political odds. My thoughts for a Sunday morning

Baseball is past the 1/2 way mark and for the season I sit at -2.75 Units. The top-bottom swing has been very narrow from – 5 units to +2.5 Units. The Season has been marked with pitching changes and cancellations.

I just added some Regular 1/2 unit total plays to the mix today for the rest of the season. They have backtested very well so we will see if that picks things up a bit.

The NFL is only 10 days away!!!

I will not be participating in the Westgate contest this year primarily because of the uncertainty with professional sports this year. Who knows what chaos the November elections will bring. The NBA is in complete disarray right now.

But I have entered the same contest I entered last year where you pick every game against the spread. Last season I went 142-114-0 against the spread picking every game. That is 55.46%. As it turns out it was better then I did in the Westgate contest last season.

I send out all my picks in this contest to subscribers on Saturday after 12 P.M.

This year also I will send out to subscribers my top 5 picks or what I would have chosen if I had entered the Westgate contest. They will be sent out at the same time as the All Spread Contest.

We will also have our 1 unit plays again this season.  Since I have started handicapping the NFL has been the most steady for winning seasons of all the other sports.

To subscribe just go to the PayPal menu and pick the monthly subscription. All subscriptions come with a 3-day free trial. 

Also, there will be no NFL special this season. There are two reasons: The uncertainty of the season and I have a lot more yearly subscribers now paying the 499 for the entire year. The specials eat into their savings substantially. So from here on out the only saving is the 499 yearly subscription.

Now, let’s take a look at the Political odds:

One thing to note is the race has narrowed quite a bit since I last posted.

I have long been saying the best wager of 2020 is going to be fading the “dirty 30”. (Dems in House seats where Trump won the general in 2016). Some of those matchups are now out and here are my wagers.

GA-06     29/71  price now 26/73   -3

ME 02     51/49  price now 49/51  -2

IA-01        32/68  price now 33/67 +1

SC -01     54/46  price now 46/57   -10

NY-11       36/64 price now 34/66   -2

NJ -03     34/66  price now 33/69 -1

IA-02       29/61 price now 36/64    +7

MN-07     68/32 price now  70/30  +2

NY-22       47/53 price now   50/50 +3

OK-05       68/32  price now   48/52   -20

VA-07      43/57   price now    34/66    -9

 

So of the 30 only 11 matchups have been posted. I will be fading each one as they are posted. The line has moved against me in almost everyone 🙂 So if your planning on taking these you will be getting a better price. I am not going to cherry-pick but just fade all 30.  As expected in most cases you are getting around 2 to 1. I expect that will continue at least until we get a bit closer to the election when these races should tighten up a lot. My expectation is to win at least 50% of these.

Now let’s look at the rest of the political odds:

Dem Nominee:

Biden

Biden is the Nominee

Dem VP Nomination:

Harris

Harris is the VP Nominee

Presidential winner:

Trump 48/55 +7Pts I took Trump at 45/55. At some books, you have to lay -105 to wager on Trump!
I think Trump getting 3 to 2 is an excellent wager. Starting to get as good as the dirty 30 wagers in terms of equity. The 3 to 2 is no longer available. It is pretty much even money right now. There has been a massive move toward Trump in the last 2 weeks.

There is one thing you can count on, the polls will be slanted toward Biden by at least 10 pts.  As I noted Trump at even money seems reasonable and now you can get almost 6/4. My take is the outcome will hinge on whether they get voter fraud under control. 2020 will be massive attempts at voter fraud. The establishment will be taking out all stops to get Trump out of office.

The two primary reasons: 1. Very high up people are going to be spending time in prison if he wins  2. He is costing the establishment a lot of money with his America first policy. All the special interest money is drying up as they cannot produce. Trump is looking out for Americans, not special interests. So the establishment on both sides wants him gone.

I would like to find a wager as to how many senate Republicans vote for Biden:)  Since there is no way of finding out there will not be a line. But my guess is at least 10 will be voting for Biden.

Control of the Presidency: Dems 55/48 Same as Trump Biden odds

Again I believe the value is on the Republicans, It looks like a repeat of 2016 to me with the polling.

Control of the House:

82/20 Democrats: -4 Pts

I took 4 to 1 and now staring at 5 to 1. Lots of EV in getting 5 to 1 here. I may end up wagering more at this price.    Another good wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”

Control of the Senate:

50/50  + 8 Pts toward the Republicans keeping the Senate.

I think the Republicans are a good wager here, getting almost 6/4. They have not done themselves any favors, to say the least. But I cannot fathom the electorate going with the Dems with their policy agenda. The better wager to me is getting 6 to 1 on the Republicans regaining the House.

6 to 4 is gone. 50-50 is the best you can get right now.

I think most likely Collins is going to lose Maine, but Alabama is a certain pickup. So we are back to +3 Republicans. I cannot imagine the Dems picking up 3 seats.  The problem of course is that if they do and it is 50/50 you have Romney who will torpedo Trump every chance he gets. Then there is Murkowski.  If Collins wins which I do not think she is even trying, then it is +4 Republicans which will give them some breathing room.

Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: This wager is over and I lost it

A new line popped up that is interesting:

Will Kanye run in 2020    95/5 It looks like he is running although will not be on every state ballot. The question is how will this influence the election if at all. The consensus is he will hurt Biden.

I do not think you can wager on this market the way the rules are. There is a lot of play in the interpretation of what constitutes running:)  If the rules were hard and fast I would easily bet against this. Sure he has announced he is running, but with Kayne, that can change on a dime. There needs to be a date certain in the wager. That would make it easier to wager on.

That pretty much sums it up for this post. I will try to post some market comments and go through my short put sales tomorrow before the open. This has been a very profitable endeavor since I started it, as you will see in my next post.

Another wager I made that I felt had a lot of value is Where the Dems will sweep all 3 branches:

I received 43/57 that they would not, and the line is now 44/56   -7 Pts. This has turned completely around and I know have just a tad bit of equity in my wager.

Getting odds on this to me was a no brainer:)

 

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

Skype:riccja

Slack: RickJ

 

 

Political Odds Updates

9/25/17

Tomorrow is the Alabama special election.  When the line came out at 2 to 1 in favor of strange I had mentioned I thought they had the wrong favorite and estimated the line to be closer to 4 to 1 in favor of Moore.

This morning just a day before the election Moore is now a 6 to 1 favorite. And that might be too low.

This is in spite of McConnell pouring millions into the race.

This race should set the tone for establishment republicans vs Trumpers (for lack of a better word)

My theory is that in 2018 it will be the Trumpers that gain rather than the Dems. The big losers will be the establishment Republicans. The mood is sour among the voters. Even more so when Trump got elected.

If Moore does trounce Strange then the numbers on all establishment Republicans who are being primaried are way too high.

Flake was a favorite when the line opened and he is now a 3 to 2 dog. But the primary my guess is he will be closer to a 4 to 1 or even 6 to 1 dog.

Heller the same.

If you’re looking for a long shot, take a look at Ryan. Ryan is a 5 1/2 to 1 favorite. Take the odds. By the primary, it will be no higher than 3 to 1. And if things really go wrong for Ryan closer to even money.

Do not underestimate the anti-establishment mood in the Country.

Another one to look at is whether the Dems will take control of the house. The odds right now slightly favor the Republicans.

In a normal off-year election the party not in control picks up at least 25 to 30 seats.  However, my guess is this will be far from a normal election off year.

I view the odds more like 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. A nice overlay here.

One more that looks good to me is which party will win the White House in 2020. The odds are 55 to 45 in favor of the Democrats. I think they have the wrong favorite here. I put it at 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans at the very least.

Now a lot can happen between now and 2020. But right now It looks like they have the wrong favorite here.

These odds in no way reflect my personal opinions on any issues. I am fortunate enough not to be burdened with any dogmatic ideology. I am purely an issue-driven person. I find myself on occasion on either side depending on the issue.

Now the more interesting question is whether the establishment Republicans will take heed after Strange gets trounced. Most likely not is my guess. They will go down with the establishment ship.

By 2020 McConnell will not be leading the Senate and Ryan if he survives will not be leading the house.

Let’s see how close I come:)

 

9/12/17

Some changes in the political odds since I have posted last:

Moore has moved to a 5.5 to 1 favorite over strange. No surprise to me and I doubt Strange will even get close even with McConnell’s backing.

Both Heller and Flake are now 2 to 1 dogs to win the primary. These should keep going down and by the primary, I suspect closer to 5 to 1 now on each against them winning.

The Republicans have moved to being a slight favorite 106 to 100 to win the house in 2018. Should be closer to 2 to 1 by election day.

Ryan is now 6 to 1 to win the Primary. The Anti establishment movement has not affected this line yet. I believe it will with a good chance Ryan goes the way or Eric Cantor.

A new line looks attractive here. The odds are 101 to 100 that Menendez gets convicted this year. The only risk I can see is if the trial goes past year end or there is a mistrial. Otherwise, I see the odds of a conviction closer to 10 to 1.

I have not been following the speed in which the trial will proceed so that would need to be determined before a wager on it. But it’s rare to see this type of trial go longer than a month once it has begun.

The lines are moving along with my expectations of the Non-Establishment Republicans getting the benefit of the political chaos that has consumed U.S. politics.

We will get a hint of this on September 26th.

Rick

 

 

 

 

 

9/6/17

Not much activity since I last posted. Moore is moving back to over 3 to 1 favorite in the Alabama special election. I had predicted 4 to 1 even when he was a dog but now I am thinking more like 6 to 1. I do not see much chance of Strange beating him.

Flake is hanging around at a 3 to 2 dog in the Arizona primary. This is another I think is way off. I had predicted 5 to 1 against and I think that is giving him the benefit of the doubt. By the primary, my guess is he will be at least a 5 to 1 dog.

Ryan is a 6.5 to 1 favorite in the Wisconsin Primary. I had put him at around 3 to 1 and by the primary, he might even be less than that.

There is a new matchup posted on Rosenstein. He is a 6 to 1 favorite to be deputy AG on 12/31st. This, in my opinion, is contingent as to when and how the Special Counsel wraps up. If Trump gets past the special counsel threat with it being behind him, my guess is Sessions and Rosenstein will be shown the door.

Now he might wait until after the 2018 elections but that would be a bit of a gamble. So this is a line that is hard to evaluate as its contingent on many variables. All of which I would not hazard a guess on.

Things will be clearer on this soon is my guess.

One I like a lot now is Heller to lose the NV Primary. He is a 2 to 1 favorite to win it and my thought is he should be a 3 to 1 dog. But the primary it would not surprise me to see the odds switched on this one.

That should bring you up to date on these. The first that is coming up is Moore vs Strange. That should give the first clue as to how bad the Republican establishment is going to get hit in the primaries. My feeling is it will be brutal.

Rick

 

 

8/31/17

A few changes in the odds since my last post. Moore has changed from 4 to 1 to 7 to 3. One thing to note about these lines is that the liquidity is so small that any size wager will move the lines. 4 to 1 is still my prediction as to the proper line in favor of Moore.

Kasich has moved down to 5 to 4 favorite to run in 2020. I have not changed my opinion as to it being 5 to 2. If he does decide to run and its Kasich vs Trump in the Primary I put Trump as a 5 to 1 favorite over Kasich. That might even be a bit on the low side.

Control of the House has moved to even money now from 5 to 4. My prediction is control of house 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans.

Flake is still a 6 to 4 dog to win the Az primary. This is one of the best values Ii see on the political odds screen. I view him as at least a 5 to 1 dog.  I commented on this when Flake was a 2 to 1 favorite!

The 2nd best is Ryan in the primary. Ryan is staying steady at 5 to 1 favorite. The line was 7.5 to 1 when I put out the play. I view the odds at no more than 3 to 1. And I would not be surprised to see the line close to 2 to 1 by the primary.

My view is that Establishment Republicans are going to get crushed in 2018. However not by the Dems but by nonestablishment Republicans.  Nothing has changed in the way the electorate views Congress except that their view is worse than it was when Trump was elected if that is possible.

Congress has been blind to this and by the time they wake up if ever, it will be too late. From the Russia investigation to not condemning Antifa the mistakes keep piling up. And importantly the people’s business has been thrown aside for partisan politics by both parties.

I do not see this changing. It appears to me it is only going to get worse as both Ryan and McConnell now are going out of their way to speak out against Trump. In addition, Trump has learned that appeasement is not the right course with Congress. He has now chosen a path of direct confrontation.

That leads me to Trump’s agenda. We saw what happened to health care. I expect a similar fate on tax cuts, immigration, debt ceiling and the wall. Congress as I see it will do whatever they can to make sure Trump has not delivered on his major campaign promises. As McCain said after casting the deciding vote on the Health care bill. “Let’s see Trump Make America great now!  Or something to that effect.

The mistake the Republican’s are making is thinking that their actions will hurt Trump. I doubt the base will go for it. My guess is as I have stated Establishment Republicans are going to take the hit in the primaries and in the General it will be the Dems.

I do not say this with glee however as the two party system is essential to provide a proper balance in a Democracy. So hopefully there will be moderates on both sides to provide some leadership before we turn into a one party system.

I will post updates every few days as I see the odds change and new situations posted.

If anyone has any questions regarding the odds of a certain event feel free to comment on this site or send me an email at [email protected]

 

 

 

8/29/17

Moore holding steady as a 4 to 1 favorite. It hit my target of 4 to 1 about 2 weeks ago after Moore being a dog a few months ago when I pointed out the EV on the wager.

Flake has now moved to a 2 to 1 dog. Moving nicely to my 5 to 1 target. I have very little doubt it will get there.

Ryan is now down to 5 to 1 moving closer to my 3 to 1 target. I suspect 3 to 1 might be too generous as by primary time he may be closer to even money.

Kasich has now moved to a 2 to 1 favorite to run in 2020. Getting close to my 5 to 2.

Nothing new lately on political odds that looks good to me. One that I would like to see as who is the first to go If Trump gets the Russia issue behind him, including the special counsel.

My guess is it will be Sessions. Although he might wait until after the 2018 primaries. I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

That’s it for this morning. Always interesting to evaluate political odds. Many variables to consider:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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