Political Odds:

ODDS                                             My prediction

Moore over Strange

7 to 3                                                     4 to 1

Dems  to win white house in 2020

5 to 4                                                  Repub 2 to 1

Flake to win primary

6 to 4                                                5 to 1 against

Ryan to win primary

7.5 to 1                                               3 to 1

Kasich to run in 2020

even money                                        5 to 2 in  favor

Control of house 2018

republicans 11 to 10                           3 to 1

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With the spending bill passing how will this affect Ryan’s odds in the primary? Is 4 to 1 too high now?

Quick update for political odds on the Wisconson primary. Ryan is a 4 to 1 favorite to win the Wisconsin GOP primary.

With the house passing a 1.3 trillion dollar spending bill which was pushed by Ryan I suspect that the political odds will be going down quickly.

I put Ryan at no more than 2 to 1 and perhaps closer to even money in the primary. If things really go sour for him he may not even run, as he has suggested.

At this point, it does not seem that Ryan could care less whether he continues on in the House. The entire approach to the spending bill is something that will not go well with the Wisconsin voters.

I would take the 4 to 1 in a heartbeat.

Political odds is a funny thing to evaluate. A lot of intangibles to consider, most of which are not easily quantifiable!

Rickj

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/politicalodds

Skype: riccja

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Political odds updated…some significant changes since last post!!

Its been awhile since I have updated the political odds page so let’s go through some of the political odds now and see how they look.

First, since Trump is on everyone’s mind lets look at some of the odds:

Odds of Trump having a full term: 2 to 1 in favor

Odds of Trump out in 2018: 9 to 1 against

Odds of Trump out in 2019 6.5 to 1 against

Looking over these the lines look like there is value on Trump being around until the end of his 1st term. Afterall over 1 year has gone by. Any proceedings to take him out will have to be started on Nov 8th. absent startling revelations. The odds of that are rapidly approaching 0.

I view the odds of Trump having a full term at 5 to 1 in favor if not higher. Odds out in 2018 25 to 1 against and out in 2019 20 to 1 against.

So as you can see I feel there is a lot of value in laying the odds here.

Next:

Odds of the party winning the next presidential election is 55 45 in favor of the Democrats. I view this as no higher than 50 50 and perhaps 60  40  in favor of the Republicans  These odds reflect the hysteria we are seeing every day now which for the most part is overblown or completely wrong. However, the caveat here is the Republican party does not seem to know how to win. They shoot themselves in the foot at every step. Otherwise, I would place the odds much higher for them.

 

Control of the house after 2018 Midterms:  2 to 1 in favor of the Dems

My view on this race has changed from 6 months ago. We have historical trends here and in addition, the redistricting in Pa that will affect the house seats.

I do not think 2 to 1 is accurate however and I would make it 7 to 5 in favor of the Dems.

Control of the Senate after the 2018 elections: 9 to 5 in favor of the Republicans. I think this is low and I would make it 5 to 2 in favor of the Republicans.

 

Another set of odds related to the anti trumpers up for reelection. I was of the opinion that you could fade everyone and most likely come out great. Many of them have now withdrawn. The most noticeable being Flake and Corker. Both were vehemently anti trump and their support at home plunged down to the low teens. As an aside if Flake decides to try to primary Trump, I view the odds at about 100 to 1 against Flake. Anything less than 10 to 1 would be a gift.

 

There is another group wager I like. Fading Dems that are in races where Trump won handily in their district. There are 5 running and you can get pretty good odds against each. My expectation would be to go 3 -2 at worse.

I will try to update more often as new lines develope.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/politicalodds

Skype: riccja

0

An interesting betting proposition in the political odds section!

It’s time to take a look at some of the political odds. A lot has happened since my last update.

The political environment has reached the red zone! The problem is there is no indication that things will cool off anytime soon.

Battlelines are drawn and the way it looks is either Trump gets removed or people are heading to prison. No room for compromise anymore.

That’s my 1 min take:)

So let’s take a look at the political odds:

Let’s start off with a new one:

Rosenstein being Deputy AG on 6/30 is 58/42 in favor. Not very high confidence in him considering he is a lifetime veteran of the AG office.

My guess is 2/1 against him being around on 6/30. Remember Grassley’s report is coming out. And the IG report very soon. The Nunez memo was just a hint of what is coming.

Let me change that now…3 to 1 against him being around on 6/30.

Remember if the Nunez report is accurate he is one of the people that signed off on a FISA application to surveil Trump. If it turns out the Nunez Memo is proven inaccurate than my 3 to 1 will be no good. So keep that in mind if you’re considering wagering based upon this.

Odds of Trump winning the 2020 election is 3 to 1 against. Taking the 3 to 1 looks pretty attractive to me. The tax cuts alone should give him an easy win considering not 1 democrat voted in favor of the cuts.

Also so far, the results of the deregulation and tax cuts are better than anyone expected. With the Fed projecting a 5% growth rate. I had to look at the number twice as I thought I saw it wrong.

Of course, if the special counsel takes a turn for the worse for him things can change on a dime. Or if the Republicans get blitzed in 2018 things will change also.

But I have factored that in. If he did not have those uncertainties he would be closer to a 10 to 1 favorite.

That brings us to the midterm elections.

Odds are 6 to 4 that the Democrats will control the house after the midterms. I view the odds at no better than 50 50. The polling has tightened up considerably as has Trump’s approval rating taken a big boost last week.

I would put a line out 60 40 the other way.

As to the Senate, the odds are 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. That seems about right to me.

One thing that has changed a bit in my way of thinking for 2018 is that incumbent Republicans that are still running will most likely do a bit better than I had anticipated.

First, Bannon is gone. His debacle in Alabama will be remembered when Trump and his team consider taking out incumbents. So I think Trump will have learned a lesson from Alabama and most likely try to assure Republican Victories rather than newcomers.

Saying that the anti trumpers that are running will be in trouble. If anything, the attacks on Trump have solidified his base, solidified him as leader of the Republican party, and has independents taking a 2nd look at him. Not because he is the ideal candidate but because of what they are seeing from the opposition.

Being a long time Democrat years ago, it saddens me to see the party take the turn that it has. I also do not care much for many of the Republicans in Congress either. That is why I am firmly in the independent camp.

But my view is, that the independents are not ready for what they are seeing from the left wing of the Democrat party. I could, of course, be wrong, or perhaps it’s my being born and raised in the Midwest showing up. We will see:)

Now, I have a line I will throw out there that is an interesting proposition:

What are the odds that Rosenstein and Mueller are in the Trump camp and are essentially working with Sessions to ensnare other criminals?

I saw that theory and dismissed it out of hand as for all intents and purposed it seems clear to me that the special counsel is not there to do the President any favors, to say the least.

But, to dismiss that theory out of hand, one would have to consider that Sessions is out to do in the President also. Since he has vouched for Rosenstein in front of the Senate.

Grassley asked him point blank whether he should have someone looking over Rosenstein’s shoulder and Sessions said clearly that there was no need, Rosenstein was fine.

So you have Sessions, with a solid reputation, and a solid Trump supporter, who believes in what Trump is trying to do essentially letting all of this go on.

So the answer is not obvious. I can see both sides. To me, it comes down to whether you think Sessions is complicit in undermining Trump or has some scheme to bring others down.

Both are far-fetched to me. And as I have said before we all have incomplete information. Things are almost never what they appear in these types of things. The only thing that you can be certain of is that you cannot rely on what the media or our politicians are saying.

So what are the odds of this being a sting operation or a way to get Trump?

I say 2 to 1 in favor of it being against Trump. I had thought the odds were much higher a month or so ago, but things have changed. Session’s response that “No agency is perfect” when confronted with if true the serious abuse of power, is much too cute of an answer.

When I heard that the odds went from 5 to 1 down to 2 to 1:)

In addition, Sessions hitched when asked by Congress if he has been interviewed by Mueller. He hesitated and had to think about what to say. Maybe it meant nothing but then again maybe it did.

Of all the odds this is the most interesting to me. Its a complicated set of circumstances of which we most likely will never see in our lifetime again.

Something for a Clancy novel:)

Let me end it there. And of course, if anyone has any comments feel free to send me an email or get ahold of me on skype.

If you’re betting the Superbowl today, best of luck. I will be sitting this game out.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/politicalodds

skype: riccja

Political Odds Updates

9/25/17

Tomorrow is the Alabama special election.  When the line came out at 2 to 1 in favor of strange I had mentioned I thought they had the wrong favorite and estimated the line to be closer to 4 to 1 in favor of Moore.

This morning just a day before the election Moore is now a 6 to 1 favorite. And that might be too low.

This is in spite of McConnell pouring millions into the race.

This race should set the tone for establishment republicans vs Trumpers (for lack of a better word)

My theory is that in 2018 it will be the Trumpers that gain rather than the Dems. The big losers will be the establishment Republicans. The mood is sour among the voters. Even more so when Trump got elected.

If Moore does trounce Strange then the numbers on all establishment Republicans who are being primaried are way too high.

Flake was a favorite when the line opened and he is now a 3 to 2 dog. But the primary my guess is he will be closer to a 4 to 1 or even 6 to 1 dog.

Heller the same.

If you’re looking for a long shot, take a look at Ryan. Ryan is a 5 1/2 to 1 favorite. Take the odds. By the primary, it will be no higher than 3 to 1. And if things really go wrong for Ryan closer to even money.

Do not underestimate the anti-establishment mood in the Country.

Another one to look at is whether the Dems will take control of the house. The odds right now slightly favor the Republicans.

In a normal off-year election the party not in control picks up at least 25 to 30 seats.  However, my guess is this will be far from a normal election off year.

I view the odds more like 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. A nice overlay here.

One more that looks good to me is which party will win the White House in 2020. The odds are 55 to 45 in favor of the Democrats. I think they have the wrong favorite here. I put it at 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans at the very least.

Now a lot can happen between now and 2020. But right now It looks like they have the wrong favorite here.

These odds in no way reflect my personal opinions on any issues. I am fortunate enough not to be burdened with any dogmatic ideology. I am purely an issue-driven person. I find myself on occasion on either side depending on the issue.

Now the more interesting question is whether the establishment Republicans will take heed after Strange gets trounced. Most likely not is my guess. They will go down with the establishment ship.

By 2020 McConnell will not be leading the Senate and Ryan if he survives will not be leading the house.

Let’s see how close I come:)

 

9/12/17

Some changes in the political odds since I have posted last:

Moore has moved to a 5.5 to 1 favorite over strange. No surprise to me and I doubt Strange will even get close even with McConnell’s backing.

Both Heller and Flake are now 2 to 1 dogs to win the primary. These should keep going down and by the primary, I suspect closer to 5 to 1 now on each against them winning.

The Republicans have moved to being a slight favorite 106 to 100 to win the house in 2018. Should be closer to 2 to 1 by election day.

Ryan is now 6 to 1 to win the Primary. The Anti establishment movement has not affected this line yet. I believe it will with a good chance Ryan goes the way or Eric Cantor.

A new line looks attractive here. The odds are 101 to 100 that Menendez gets convicted this year. The only risk I can see is if the trial goes past year end or there is a mistrial. Otherwise, I see the odds of a conviction closer to 10 to 1.

I have not been following the speed in which the trial will proceed so that would need to be determined before a wager on it. But it’s rare to see this type of trial go longer than a month once it has begun.

The lines are moving along with my expectations of the Non-Establishment Republicans getting the benefit of the political chaos that has consumed U.S. politics.

We will get a hint of this on September 26th.

Rick

 

 

 

 

 

9/6/17

Not much activity since I last posted. Moore is moving back to over 3 to 1 favorite in the Alabama special election. I had predicted 4 to 1 even when he was a dog but now I am thinking more like 6 to 1. I do not see much chance of Strange beating him.

Flake is hanging around at a 3 to 2 dog in the Arizona primary. This is another I think is way off. I had predicted 5 to 1 against and I think that is giving him the benefit of the doubt. By the primary, my guess is he will be at least a 5 to 1 dog.

Ryan is a 6.5 to 1 favorite in the Wisconsin Primary. I had put him at around 3 to 1 and by the primary, he might even be less than that.

There is a new matchup posted on Rosenstein. He is a 6 to 1 favorite to be deputy AG on 12/31st. This, in my opinion, is contingent as to when and how the Special Counsel wraps up. If Trump gets past the special counsel threat with it being behind him, my guess is Sessions and Rosenstein will be shown the door.

Now he might wait until after the 2018 elections but that would be a bit of a gamble. So this is a line that is hard to evaluate as its contingent on many variables. All of which I would not hazard a guess on.

Things will be clearer on this soon is my guess.

One I like a lot now is Heller to lose the NV Primary. He is a 2 to 1 favorite to win it and my thought is he should be a 3 to 1 dog. But the primary it would not surprise me to see the odds switched on this one.

That should bring you up to date on these. The first that is coming up is Moore vs Strange. That should give the first clue as to how bad the Republican establishment is going to get hit in the primaries. My feeling is it will be brutal.

Rick

 

 

8/31/17

A few changes in the odds since my last post. Moore has changed from 4 to 1 to 7 to 3. One thing to note about these lines is that the liquidity is so small that any size wager will move the lines. 4 to 1 is still my prediction as to the proper line in favor of Moore.

Kasich has moved down to 5 to 4 favorite to run in 2020. I have not changed my opinion as to it being 5 to 2. If he does decide to run and its Kasich vs Trump in the Primary I put Trump as a 5 to 1 favorite over Kasich. That might even be a bit on the low side.

Control of the House has moved to even money now from 5 to 4. My prediction is control of house 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans.

Flake is still a 6 to 4 dog to win the Az primary. This is one of the best values Ii see on the political odds screen. I view him as at least a 5 to 1 dog.  I commented on this when Flake was a 2 to 1 favorite!

The 2nd best is Ryan in the primary. Ryan is staying steady at 5 to 1 favorite. The line was 7.5 to 1 when I put out the play. I view the odds at no more than 3 to 1. And I would not be surprised to see the line close to 2 to 1 by the primary.

My view is that Establishment Republicans are going to get crushed in 2018. However not by the Dems but by nonestablishment Republicans.  Nothing has changed in the way the electorate views Congress except that their view is worse than it was when Trump was elected if that is possible.

Congress has been blind to this and by the time they wake up if ever, it will be too late. From the Russia investigation to not condemning Antifa the mistakes keep piling up. And importantly the people’s business has been thrown aside for partisan politics by both parties.

I do not see this changing. It appears to me it is only going to get worse as both Ryan and McConnell now are going out of their way to speak out against Trump. In addition, Trump has learned that appeasement is not the right course with Congress. He has now chosen a path of direct confrontation.

That leads me to Trump’s agenda. We saw what happened to health care. I expect a similar fate on tax cuts, immigration, debt ceiling and the wall. Congress as I see it will do whatever they can to make sure Trump has not delivered on his major campaign promises. As McCain said after casting the deciding vote on the Health care bill. “Let’s see Trump Make America great now!  Or something to that effect.

The mistake the Republican’s are making is thinking that their actions will hurt Trump. I doubt the base will go for it. My guess is as I have stated Establishment Republicans are going to take the hit in the primaries and in the General it will be the Dems.

I do not say this with glee however as the two party system is essential to provide a proper balance in a Democracy. So hopefully there will be moderates on both sides to provide some leadership before we turn into a one party system.

I will post updates every few days as I see the odds change and new situations posted.

If anyone has any questions regarding the odds of a certain event feel free to comment on this site or send me an email at [email protected]

 

 

 

8/29/17

Moore holding steady as a 4 to 1 favorite. It hit my target of 4 to 1 about 2 weeks ago after Moore being a dog a few months ago when I pointed out the EV on the wager.

Flake has now moved to a 2 to 1 dog. Moving nicely to my 5 to 1 target. I have very little doubt it will get there.

Ryan is now down to 5 to 1 moving closer to my 3 to 1 target. I suspect 3 to 1 might be too generous as by primary time he may be closer to even money.

Kasich has now moved to a 2 to 1 favorite to run in 2020. Getting close to my 5 to 2.

Nothing new lately on political odds that looks good to me. One that I would like to see as who is the first to go If Trump gets the Russia issue behind him, including the special counsel.

My guess is it will be Sessions. Although he might wait until after the 2018 primaries. I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

That’s it for this morning. Always interesting to evaluate political odds. Many variables to consider:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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