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2022 Midterm political odds update

Let me start out by pasting what I told my subscribers a little over a month ago:

The Republicans will be winning most races by a very large margin heading late into election night. Most of these leads will seem insurmountable. That would be a great time to lay off your wagers and take a profit, as I did when I wagered on Trump in 2020. That way you do not have to expose yourself to the uncertainty of the days after election day.

If you are wagering on Predictit.com you can lay off your wagers. If however you are using other off shore books you most likely will not have that opportunity as the spreads are pretty wide. And if your wagering privately then it all depends on who the other person is.

So in short the strategy should be to wager on Republicans, but then lay off the wagers when you have a nice profit based upon the returns as they come in.

When the line was Walker a large dog in Ga, I had always thought Walker was the best bet on the card.  He is a very popular figure in Ga, and the media trashing him has worked in his favor, increasing his donations substantially. Since then the line has now moved to 63/41 in Walker’s favor.  I still think there is room to make money on  this wager, but again, I would be looking to lay it off after day of voting returns. My guess is the line may well move as high as 2 to 1.  At that point I would be laying the wager off:)

Control of the Senate is now 74/29 in favor of the Republicans. I do not see any equity in this one, and you likely will not have much of an opportunity to lay anything off. So I consider this one a pass.

Any wager that favors the Republican by over 70/30 should be passed if you are wagering on the Republicans side.
The only exception to that would be Florida.  At 9 to 1 DeSantis is a gift. He is virtually 100% to win. But laying 9 to 1 is not everyone’s cup of tea:)
Nevada Senate race is 76/23 Republican and the Nevada Gov race is 78/18 Republican.  I live in Nevada, and if you want some live longshots, take the Dem on both of these. I do not see either race being that big, and could well believe the Dems winning both.   Of course , this will occur days after election day:)
Wisconsin Governor is 69/31 Republican.  This is a big number you could lay with the idea of laying it off when it hits 90 to 10.  Early numbers should send this to at least that level.
Az Governor’s race has Lake 79/22. No room there. this is a clear pass
If you give any validity to Biden’s comments all Dems are live dogs:)   Myself, I think the better strategy is the layoff strategy based upon early and day of returns.
The Az Senate race is 55/48 Republican. It is hard to imagine Lake being a 4 to 1 favorite and the Senate race is barely over 50/50.  But, This one is a perfect example of taking the Republican with a lot of room to lay it off election night.     This one and Walker are probably the two best wagers for the layoff strategy.
NH has the senate race 60/40 in favor of the Dems. I think you could easily wager on the republican here using the layoff strategy.  I doubt the Republican is going to win this one, so be sure and lay if off!
The race that mystifies me is Murkowski a 4 to 1 favorite in Alaska. Virtually every Trump impeachment voter was defeated soundly, but Murkowski who is not very popular in Alaska is a solid favorite. No doubt it has something to do with ranked choice voting. But the line is so far away from my expectations I am staying completely away from this wager.
So the strategy is pretty simple at this point. Most of my wagers were made over a month ago before the lines had moved. So I am in good shape if I decide to adapt this strategy.
As always I welcome any comments or questions.
RickJ
Rickjs Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

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NFL Week Week 8 contest picks, NFL and NCAA FB season recap, Political odds update coming soon

NFL has been as solid as I can remember this season.  Plays are 14-3-1 or 82%!!! Top 5 contest picks are 23-10-2 or 69.69%!!! and in the contest where I pick every game against the spread I sit at 61-47 or 56.48%.

Like I said it does not get much better then this:)  Today I have sent out 1 play to subscribers. And have also sent out all roadmaps for this week on every game.

In the roadmaps I discuss the various factors of each game with a discussion of how they interrelate. For those doing their own handicapping this  is invaluable.

My 5 Contest picks this week are:

New Orleans +1.5

Pitt +10.5

Detroit +3.5

Green Bay +10.5

Cleveland +3

 

The Westgate top 5 went 2-3 last week bringing its record to 22-13. This is by far the best year I have seen since I have been following it.  Typically it has been a money making proposition to fade the top 5 in this contest. But so far not this season:)

The Westgate top 5 this week is:

NE

Tenn

Ariz

LV

Clev

I am with the top 5 on Cleveland and fading LV with NO.

It is clear to me the games are getting a bit tougher to handicap as we hit week 8:)

In MLB we started out winning with a win in game 1 of the world series with Phil +146

And in NCAA FB after a fast start, we have settled back down with two losing weeks in a row.

We sit at 22-16-1 for sides. Which is a solid 57.89%. But the totals this season have been 0-3. So we

find ourselves at +1.10 units in College football combining the two.

The NHL and NBA have not kicked in yet. Typically early in the season there are no plays until some kind of

history is set up in the databases for the season.  I expect those to kick in soon.

I have been doing this now online for 20+ years, and enjoy the handicapping as much now as when I started posting. While many handicappers have trouble keeping subscribers, I have had subscribers that have been with me since day 1:)

In addition, I try to keep finding ways to add value. The latest is the addition to my stock and option trades on my Slack channels. This has been a big success. As I am +EV on these trades with the drawdowns minimal.

Finally, we are heading into the midterms. I have shared on slack my thoughts of where the value was at. And in virtually every instance the lines have moved substantially in the direction I have projected.  I will post today or tomorrow on where I think things are heading into the midterms, and where I think there may still be value.

It is not too late to join us.  The cost is only $49.00 a month, and it has a 3 day free trial. Instead of paying a large lump sum for each sport, the subscription is month to month and covers every sport I handicap, including my stock and option trades.

One of the best values around.

Hope to see you join us.

Rick J

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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Revisiting the current pollical odds landscape

Several key primaries coming up soon.

The one race that seems strange to me is Murkowski in Alaska. Most votes goes to TShibaka 79/25 But the odds of Murkowski getting reelected is 71/29. I am not sure how to reconcile that one.

Murkowski has said several times she thinks she might not win the primary. That would have been my thought considering that virtually every endorsement of Trumps has won.

Next in Arizona it appears Cheney is finished. She is a 95/5 dog in the race. That seems about right to me.

For governor Lake is a 90/10 favorite to get the nomination. That also seem spot on.

Next speaker of the house , McCarthy is a 76/% favorite.  I like the other side of that one. The Republicans will most likely take the house, but depending on how the primary’s go, McCarthy may not get the vote to Speaker.  Getting 3 to 1 is not a bad number on that one.

There are races now for the midterms even though in some the candidate is not set.  Walker in Ga is a 4/6 dog to get that Senate seat. I have bet that race at much worse odds. I layed 6/4 on Walker. So obviously I would be taking 4/6 here.

Control of the Senate is 51/49 Republicans.  That is probably the correct line. The GOP has pissed off enough of the base that this will be a close one. The question is what % of the base will not turn out for them. They have gone out of their way to not take the Senate back. If I was forced to wager on this I would take the Dems.

In the House the line is 87/15 in favor of the Republicans. I would not lay that number. But I doubt the Dems will be able to keep the House.

Biden is a 31% chance of getting the Dem nomination. I would take the other side of that one and lay the odds. I do not see any  chance of him getting the nomination in 2024. You can lay 3 to 1 and rest easy.

Arizona Senate race has the Dems a 57/43 Favorite. I would take the odds on this one. Its a tossup at best.

Trump and DeSantis are tied at 29% to win the Presidency in 2024.  My opinion is if DeSantis on on the top of the ticket the line should be around 10 to 1 that he wins. If Trump is on top of the ticket its probably 10 to 1 against. If you think 2020 was bad, they will double down to make sure Trump does not win. DeSantis on the other hand would get the support that Trump does not have from the establishment, and the Hispanic vote would turn out in record numbers.

Let me add, I am not convinced Trump is going to run. I would put the line out at a tossup right now.

If anyone has any particular race they are interested drop me an email.

Also remember that NCAA FB starts on 8/27, less than a month away.

I have had MLB season free for everyone. But that ends on 8/27. All subscriptions that have been put on pause

will start back up then. And those that are on a free subscription will need to sign up to continue getting plays.

You can sign up on my web site rickjshandicappingpicks.com using the paypal menu.

All free accounts that are not signed up will be discontinued on that date.

Hope to see you join us for the upcoming NFL and NCAA FB Season

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

 

 

 

 

Political Odds Updates

9/25/17

Tomorrow is the Alabama special election.  When the line came out at 2 to 1 in favor of strange I had mentioned I thought they had the wrong favorite and estimated the line to be closer to 4 to 1 in favor of Moore.

This morning just a day before the election Moore is now a 6 to 1 favorite. And that might be too low.

This is in spite of McConnell pouring millions into the race.

This race should set the tone for establishment republicans vs Trumpers (for lack of a better word)

My theory is that in 2018 it will be the Trumpers that gain rather than the Dems. The big losers will be the establishment Republicans. The mood is sour among the voters. Even more so when Trump got elected.

If Moore does trounce Strange then the numbers on all establishment Republicans who are being primaried are way too high.

Flake was a favorite when the line opened and he is now a 3 to 2 dog. But the primary my guess is he will be closer to a 4 to 1 or even 6 to 1 dog.

Heller the same.

If you’re looking for a long shot, take a look at Ryan. Ryan is a 5 1/2 to 1 favorite. Take the odds. By the primary, it will be no higher than 3 to 1. And if things really go wrong for Ryan closer to even money.

Do not underestimate the anti-establishment mood in the Country.

Another one to look at is whether the Dems will take control of the house. The odds right now slightly favor the Republicans.

In a normal off-year election the party not in control picks up at least 25 to 30 seats.  However, my guess is this will be far from a normal election off year.

I view the odds more like 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. A nice overlay here.

One more that looks good to me is which party will win the White House in 2020. The odds are 55 to 45 in favor of the Democrats. I think they have the wrong favorite here. I put it at 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans at the very least.

Now a lot can happen between now and 2020. But right now It looks like they have the wrong favorite here.

These odds in no way reflect my personal opinions on any issues. I am fortunate enough not to be burdened with any dogmatic ideology. I am purely an issue-driven person. I find myself on occasion on either side depending on the issue.

Now the more interesting question is whether the establishment Republicans will take heed after Strange gets trounced. Most likely not is my guess. They will go down with the establishment ship.

By 2020 McConnell will not be leading the Senate and Ryan if he survives will not be leading the house.

Let’s see how close I come:)

 

9/12/17

Some changes in the political odds since I have posted last:

Moore has moved to a 5.5 to 1 favorite over strange. No surprise to me and I doubt Strange will even get close even with McConnell’s backing.

Both Heller and Flake are now 2 to 1 dogs to win the primary. These should keep going down and by the primary, I suspect closer to 5 to 1 now on each against them winning.

The Republicans have moved to being a slight favorite 106 to 100 to win the house in 2018. Should be closer to 2 to 1 by election day.

Ryan is now 6 to 1 to win the Primary. The Anti establishment movement has not affected this line yet. I believe it will with a good chance Ryan goes the way or Eric Cantor.

A new line looks attractive here. The odds are 101 to 100 that Menendez gets convicted this year. The only risk I can see is if the trial goes past year end or there is a mistrial. Otherwise, I see the odds of a conviction closer to 10 to 1.

I have not been following the speed in which the trial will proceed so that would need to be determined before a wager on it. But it’s rare to see this type of trial go longer than a month once it has begun.

The lines are moving along with my expectations of the Non-Establishment Republicans getting the benefit of the political chaos that has consumed U.S. politics.

We will get a hint of this on September 26th.

Rick

 

 

 

 

 

9/6/17

Not much activity since I last posted. Moore is moving back to over 3 to 1 favorite in the Alabama special election. I had predicted 4 to 1 even when he was a dog but now I am thinking more like 6 to 1. I do not see much chance of Strange beating him.

Flake is hanging around at a 3 to 2 dog in the Arizona primary. This is another I think is way off. I had predicted 5 to 1 against and I think that is giving him the benefit of the doubt. By the primary, my guess is he will be at least a 5 to 1 dog.

Ryan is a 6.5 to 1 favorite in the Wisconsin Primary. I had put him at around 3 to 1 and by the primary, he might even be less than that.

There is a new matchup posted on Rosenstein. He is a 6 to 1 favorite to be deputy AG on 12/31st. This, in my opinion, is contingent as to when and how the Special Counsel wraps up. If Trump gets past the special counsel threat with it being behind him, my guess is Sessions and Rosenstein will be shown the door.

Now he might wait until after the 2018 elections but that would be a bit of a gamble. So this is a line that is hard to evaluate as its contingent on many variables. All of which I would not hazard a guess on.

Things will be clearer on this soon is my guess.

One I like a lot now is Heller to lose the NV Primary. He is a 2 to 1 favorite to win it and my thought is he should be a 3 to 1 dog. But the primary it would not surprise me to see the odds switched on this one.

That should bring you up to date on these. The first that is coming up is Moore vs Strange. That should give the first clue as to how bad the Republican establishment is going to get hit in the primaries. My feeling is it will be brutal.

Rick

 

 

8/31/17

A few changes in the odds since my last post. Moore has changed from 4 to 1 to 7 to 3. One thing to note about these lines is that the liquidity is so small that any size wager will move the lines. 4 to 1 is still my prediction as to the proper line in favor of Moore.

Kasich has moved down to 5 to 4 favorite to run in 2020. I have not changed my opinion as to it being 5 to 2. If he does decide to run and its Kasich vs Trump in the Primary I put Trump as a 5 to 1 favorite over Kasich. That might even be a bit on the low side.

Control of the House has moved to even money now from 5 to 4. My prediction is control of house 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans.

Flake is still a 6 to 4 dog to win the Az primary. This is one of the best values Ii see on the political odds screen. I view him as at least a 5 to 1 dog.  I commented on this when Flake was a 2 to 1 favorite!

The 2nd best is Ryan in the primary. Ryan is staying steady at 5 to 1 favorite. The line was 7.5 to 1 when I put out the play. I view the odds at no more than 3 to 1. And I would not be surprised to see the line close to 2 to 1 by the primary.

My view is that Establishment Republicans are going to get crushed in 2018. However not by the Dems but by nonestablishment Republicans.  Nothing has changed in the way the electorate views Congress except that their view is worse than it was when Trump was elected if that is possible.

Congress has been blind to this and by the time they wake up if ever, it will be too late. From the Russia investigation to not condemning Antifa the mistakes keep piling up. And importantly the people’s business has been thrown aside for partisan politics by both parties.

I do not see this changing. It appears to me it is only going to get worse as both Ryan and McConnell now are going out of their way to speak out against Trump. In addition, Trump has learned that appeasement is not the right course with Congress. He has now chosen a path of direct confrontation.

That leads me to Trump’s agenda. We saw what happened to health care. I expect a similar fate on tax cuts, immigration, debt ceiling and the wall. Congress as I see it will do whatever they can to make sure Trump has not delivered on his major campaign promises. As McCain said after casting the deciding vote on the Health care bill. “Let’s see Trump Make America great now!  Or something to that effect.

The mistake the Republican’s are making is thinking that their actions will hurt Trump. I doubt the base will go for it. My guess is as I have stated Establishment Republicans are going to take the hit in the primaries and in the General it will be the Dems.

I do not say this with glee however as the two party system is essential to provide a proper balance in a Democracy. So hopefully there will be moderates on both sides to provide some leadership before we turn into a one party system.

I will post updates every few days as I see the odds change and new situations posted.

If anyone has any questions regarding the odds of a certain event feel free to comment on this site or send me an email at riccja3@gmail.com

 

 

 

8/29/17

Moore holding steady as a 4 to 1 favorite. It hit my target of 4 to 1 about 2 weeks ago after Moore being a dog a few months ago when I pointed out the EV on the wager.

Flake has now moved to a 2 to 1 dog. Moving nicely to my 5 to 1 target. I have very little doubt it will get there.

Ryan is now down to 5 to 1 moving closer to my 3 to 1 target. I suspect 3 to 1 might be too generous as by primary time he may be closer to even money.

Kasich has now moved to a 2 to 1 favorite to run in 2020. Getting close to my 5 to 2.

Nothing new lately on political odds that looks good to me. One that I would like to see as who is the first to go If Trump gets the Russia issue behind him, including the special counsel.

My guess is it will be Sessions. Although he might wait until after the 2018 primaries. I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

That’s it for this morning. Always interesting to evaluate political odds. Many variables to consider:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks



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