0

A review of some political odds, and a new proposition

With College Hoop Conference Tournaments winding down for the NCAA Tournament, this is a rare Saturday morning I have some time to take a look at some political odds.

First lets go over my last three posts:

On Jan. 13th the odds was 5 to 2 that Trump would finish his first term. My suggestion back then was that laying the 5 to 2 had a lot of value, and that the odds were closer to 100 to 1. Today looking at the odds they are now up to almost 4 to 1. It will be much higher after the Mueller report.

On Feb 16th, I discussed the odds of Trump being impeached his first term. The odds at that time was 55 to 45 that he would not be impeached his first term. I suggested taking the 45 to 55 on impeachment had value. I put the odds at close to 2 to 1 he would be impeached. The odds have now moved to 3 to 1 he will not be impeached his first term.

So the odds have moved sharply the other way. I would still take the 3 to 1. But as I pointed out the value on this bet is far less than the first one we discussed.

My last post discussed on February 19th was regarding the odds of McCabe being indicted by the end of the year. The odds was 2 to 1 against. I sugested taking the 2 to 1 as I felt the odds were closer to 2 to 1 in favor of indictment. This morning the odds sit just under 2 to 1 against. I still think this has excellent value for the reasons in the article.

Now this morning looking over the political odds I see one that to me looks like it has some value. It involves Biden running in 2020. The odds are about 6 to 1 that Biden will run. I would take the 6 to 1. I view it as 2 to 1 at best that he will run for a variety of reasons.

First, I do not think he has the desire to run. From all I see he does not have the will to put in the intense effort that will be needed. Second, Biden has a lot of baggage that he has escaped. Running for President will bring to light a lot of this baggage, both by his primary opponents and in the General if he gets that far. Biden, regardless of what you think about him is politically savvy. He knows his time is long past. He cannot get the base. And that brings me to number 3. The base has no taste for Biden. An older white male, who is left center. Not a chance he gets accepted with open arms.

So take the six to 1 and bet on Biden to not go off the deep end and throw his hat in the ring. It would be out of character for him to do that.

As always, I give the following Caveat. I am a Trump supporter. Not because of any particular ideology but because its my opinion he is the best person for the Country. I am not burdened by any particular ideology and am issue driven. So I see things a bit differently then most. More as an outsider looking into the chaos that has evolved. And as I have always said, when there is chaos there is value:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

Skype : riccja

0

Another Positive EV political wager I spotted this morning. Hint: It has to do with McCabe

I spotted what looks like another pretty good overlay in the political odds landscape this morning. The odds of a Federal Charge against McCabe by 12/31/19 is 2 to 1 against.

With McCabe’s latest interview, and Barr in as AG. It looks to me like the odds are at worst even money at this point. If anything 2 to 1 in favor of an indictment by year end.

Now this is not quite as good a wager as laying 5 to 2 that Trump finishes his term. But to me it looks like it has a lot of value.

If anything as things unfold, the odds should narrow up to even money within a few months.

In sports betting its rare to find wagers that have more than a few % EV. But in political wagering you can find wagers like this quite often if you stay up on political events and keep a clear head.

So, take the 2 to 1 that McCabe gets indicted or formally charged with a federal crime by year end.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

Skype : riccja

0

What are the odds of President Trump being impeached his first term? Is there value in the wager? My thoughts.

About a month ago the odds were 5 to 2 that President Trump would finish his first term. My analysis ended up, that I felt the odds were closer to 100 to 1 in favor and this was a significant overlay.

As of this morning, the odds are still sitting closer to 3 to 1. And I have little doubt it will keep moving higher. I still think this is about as good a wager as you are going to find right now either in politics or sports betting for that matter:)

Lets take a look at another wager that I assume many have an interest in. The odds of Trump being impeached his first term sits at 55 to 45 that he will not be impeached. This only covers the house vote which requires 51% for a vote of impeachment.

To try to figure out value on this is not quite as easy as it looks:) After all, the calls for impeachment have been steady since he took office, there is still a special counsel hard at work, and the Democrats have a solid majority in the House.

In addition, Articles of impeachment were filed the very first day the Democrats took control of the House.

So logically you would think that 55 to 45 against is a bit strange for something that at first glance looks like a certainty:)

The house makeup is 235 Democrats and 197 Republicans, which leaves the Dems with a 38 vote advantage. But its not that easy.

First the Democrat party in the House has many factions. You have the blue dog Democrats which consist of about 27 members. The Progressive wing has about 70 members, The new Democrats which is more centrist but not quite as centrist as the Blue dogs.

The presidential candidates so far except for maybe 1 or 2 are from the Progressive wing.

So What conclusions can you draw from this as to the likelihood of a vote for impeachment coming to the floor and then winning.

Lets start out with the idea that impeachment in the House is a pure political animal. Its not until it gets to the Senate for Trial that the law starts to get considered. But, the Democrats have a major thing to consider, that being the 2020 elections.

When the Republicans made the mistake of impeaching Clinton it cost them big in the next election. Make no mistake Pelosi knows that and will not bring the vote to the floor unless there is substantial evidence. Which to this date there is none.

In addition, I am not quite sure, except for the Progressive wing that there is a taste for impeachment. Not because they do not want Trump out but because they want to stay in office in 2020. So even though they have a 37 vote majority, it might be close.

On the other hand human nature what it is, may will drive them down that road. I have little doubt that there will be at least enough out of the Mueller report that will give them an impetus to move toward impeachment. Perhaps not on collusion, but Obstruction.

Afterall, all you need do is read Sidney Powell’s book “License to Lie” to see the type of prosecutors that make up the Mueller team. Combine that with the Text messages of the FBI, its pretty clear that Mueller was the insurance policy designed to remove Trump from office.

Now, there is a train of thought that Mueller may well be a white hat, and that indictments are coming down soon taking out all the players in this coup, up to the highest levels of government. It’s possible but I am a skeptic of that theory at this point.

Putting all of this together my thought is the Democrats are going to end up impeaching Trump before his term is up. I do not think they have the good sense to restrain themselves. Schiff and Nadler are in full investigative mode for one reason. To get rid of Trump.

Too much money has been spent, too much money is at risk for them not to take the bait. And last but not least crimes have been committed, and not by Trump. Trump staying in office leave many exposed to some serious time. So if I had to bet this I would take the 45 to 55 odds on this one.

The value? Not near as good as laying the 5 to 2 that Trump finishes his term. But I would put the odds at a solid 2 to 1 that the House impeaches Trump.

These types of situations are not as easy to figure as handicapping sports. There are assumptions you have to make in order to come up with a number. My main assumption is that the goal has been from the start to get rid of Trump. And with that in mind, 55 to 45 against seems very optimistic.

So, I would take the 45 to 55 on a 2 to 1 shot. Not a bad overlay. Its only February and things are going to get crazier as each day progresses.

But remember, the person that operates the best in chaos is Trump. He maintains a steady head, while the others around him are literally going insane. If it does get that far there is a snowballs chance in Hell they will get a 2/3rd vote in the Senate to convict. As with 33 Republicans senators up for re-election in 2020, it would be political suicide to vote to convict.

As Trump so appropriately put it when he won the election ” This politics is a complicated business”:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

Skype: riccja

Political Odds Updates

9/25/17

Tomorrow is the Alabama special election.  When the line came out at 2 to 1 in favor of strange I had mentioned I thought they had the wrong favorite and estimated the line to be closer to 4 to 1 in favor of Moore.

This morning just a day before the election Moore is now a 6 to 1 favorite. And that might be too low.

This is in spite of McConnell pouring millions into the race.

This race should set the tone for establishment republicans vs Trumpers (for lack of a better word)

My theory is that in 2018 it will be the Trumpers that gain rather than the Dems. The big losers will be the establishment Republicans. The mood is sour among the voters. Even more so when Trump got elected.

If Moore does trounce Strange then the numbers on all establishment Republicans who are being primaried are way too high.

Flake was a favorite when the line opened and he is now a 3 to 2 dog. But the primary my guess is he will be closer to a 4 to 1 or even 6 to 1 dog.

Heller the same.

If you’re looking for a long shot, take a look at Ryan. Ryan is a 5 1/2 to 1 favorite. Take the odds. By the primary, it will be no higher than 3 to 1. And if things really go wrong for Ryan closer to even money.

Do not underestimate the anti-establishment mood in the Country.

Another one to look at is whether the Dems will take control of the house. The odds right now slightly favor the Republicans.

In a normal off-year election the party not in control picks up at least 25 to 30 seats.  However, my guess is this will be far from a normal election off year.

I view the odds more like 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. A nice overlay here.

One more that looks good to me is which party will win the White House in 2020. The odds are 55 to 45 in favor of the Democrats. I think they have the wrong favorite here. I put it at 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans at the very least.

Now a lot can happen between now and 2020. But right now It looks like they have the wrong favorite here.

These odds in no way reflect my personal opinions on any issues. I am fortunate enough not to be burdened with any dogmatic ideology. I am purely an issue-driven person. I find myself on occasion on either side depending on the issue.

Now the more interesting question is whether the establishment Republicans will take heed after Strange gets trounced. Most likely not is my guess. They will go down with the establishment ship.

By 2020 McConnell will not be leading the Senate and Ryan if he survives will not be leading the house.

Let’s see how close I come:)

 

9/12/17

Some changes in the political odds since I have posted last:

Moore has moved to a 5.5 to 1 favorite over strange. No surprise to me and I doubt Strange will even get close even with McConnell’s backing.

Both Heller and Flake are now 2 to 1 dogs to win the primary. These should keep going down and by the primary, I suspect closer to 5 to 1 now on each against them winning.

The Republicans have moved to being a slight favorite 106 to 100 to win the house in 2018. Should be closer to 2 to 1 by election day.

Ryan is now 6 to 1 to win the Primary. The Anti establishment movement has not affected this line yet. I believe it will with a good chance Ryan goes the way or Eric Cantor.

A new line looks attractive here. The odds are 101 to 100 that Menendez gets convicted this year. The only risk I can see is if the trial goes past year end or there is a mistrial. Otherwise, I see the odds of a conviction closer to 10 to 1.

I have not been following the speed in which the trial will proceed so that would need to be determined before a wager on it. But it’s rare to see this type of trial go longer than a month once it has begun.

The lines are moving along with my expectations of the Non-Establishment Republicans getting the benefit of the political chaos that has consumed U.S. politics.

We will get a hint of this on September 26th.

Rick

 

 

 

 

 

9/6/17

Not much activity since I last posted. Moore is moving back to over 3 to 1 favorite in the Alabama special election. I had predicted 4 to 1 even when he was a dog but now I am thinking more like 6 to 1. I do not see much chance of Strange beating him.

Flake is hanging around at a 3 to 2 dog in the Arizona primary. This is another I think is way off. I had predicted 5 to 1 against and I think that is giving him the benefit of the doubt. By the primary, my guess is he will be at least a 5 to 1 dog.

Ryan is a 6.5 to 1 favorite in the Wisconsin Primary. I had put him at around 3 to 1 and by the primary, he might even be less than that.

There is a new matchup posted on Rosenstein. He is a 6 to 1 favorite to be deputy AG on 12/31st. This, in my opinion, is contingent as to when and how the Special Counsel wraps up. If Trump gets past the special counsel threat with it being behind him, my guess is Sessions and Rosenstein will be shown the door.

Now he might wait until after the 2018 elections but that would be a bit of a gamble. So this is a line that is hard to evaluate as its contingent on many variables. All of which I would not hazard a guess on.

Things will be clearer on this soon is my guess.

One I like a lot now is Heller to lose the NV Primary. He is a 2 to 1 favorite to win it and my thought is he should be a 3 to 1 dog. But the primary it would not surprise me to see the odds switched on this one.

That should bring you up to date on these. The first that is coming up is Moore vs Strange. That should give the first clue as to how bad the Republican establishment is going to get hit in the primaries. My feeling is it will be brutal.

Rick

 

 

8/31/17

A few changes in the odds since my last post. Moore has changed from 4 to 1 to 7 to 3. One thing to note about these lines is that the liquidity is so small that any size wager will move the lines. 4 to 1 is still my prediction as to the proper line in favor of Moore.

Kasich has moved down to 5 to 4 favorite to run in 2020. I have not changed my opinion as to it being 5 to 2. If he does decide to run and its Kasich vs Trump in the Primary I put Trump as a 5 to 1 favorite over Kasich. That might even be a bit on the low side.

Control of the House has moved to even money now from 5 to 4. My prediction is control of house 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans.

Flake is still a 6 to 4 dog to win the Az primary. This is one of the best values Ii see on the political odds screen. I view him as at least a 5 to 1 dog.  I commented on this when Flake was a 2 to 1 favorite!

The 2nd best is Ryan in the primary. Ryan is staying steady at 5 to 1 favorite. The line was 7.5 to 1 when I put out the play. I view the odds at no more than 3 to 1. And I would not be surprised to see the line close to 2 to 1 by the primary.

My view is that Establishment Republicans are going to get crushed in 2018. However not by the Dems but by nonestablishment Republicans.  Nothing has changed in the way the electorate views Congress except that their view is worse than it was when Trump was elected if that is possible.

Congress has been blind to this and by the time they wake up if ever, it will be too late. From the Russia investigation to not condemning Antifa the mistakes keep piling up. And importantly the people’s business has been thrown aside for partisan politics by both parties.

I do not see this changing. It appears to me it is only going to get worse as both Ryan and McConnell now are going out of their way to speak out against Trump. In addition, Trump has learned that appeasement is not the right course with Congress. He has now chosen a path of direct confrontation.

That leads me to Trump’s agenda. We saw what happened to health care. I expect a similar fate on tax cuts, immigration, debt ceiling and the wall. Congress as I see it will do whatever they can to make sure Trump has not delivered on his major campaign promises. As McCain said after casting the deciding vote on the Health care bill. “Let’s see Trump Make America great now!  Or something to that effect.

The mistake the Republican’s are making is thinking that their actions will hurt Trump. I doubt the base will go for it. My guess is as I have stated Establishment Republicans are going to take the hit in the primaries and in the General it will be the Dems.

I do not say this with glee however as the two party system is essential to provide a proper balance in a Democracy. So hopefully there will be moderates on both sides to provide some leadership before we turn into a one party system.

I will post updates every few days as I see the odds change and new situations posted.

If anyone has any questions regarding the odds of a certain event feel free to comment on this site or send me an email at [email protected]

 

 

 

8/29/17

Moore holding steady as a 4 to 1 favorite. It hit my target of 4 to 1 about 2 weeks ago after Moore being a dog a few months ago when I pointed out the EV on the wager.

Flake has now moved to a 2 to 1 dog. Moving nicely to my 5 to 1 target. I have very little doubt it will get there.

Ryan is now down to 5 to 1 moving closer to my 3 to 1 target. I suspect 3 to 1 might be too generous as by primary time he may be closer to even money.

Kasich has now moved to a 2 to 1 favorite to run in 2020. Getting close to my 5 to 2.

Nothing new lately on political odds that looks good to me. One that I would like to see as who is the first to go If Trump gets the Russia issue behind him, including the special counsel.

My guess is it will be Sessions. Although he might wait until after the 2018 primaries. I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

That’s it for this morning. Always interesting to evaluate political odds. Many variables to consider:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Contact Us

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Not readable? Change text. captcha txt
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!
Sign up now for our daily newsletter. Includes handicapping tips

March Madness is here!!!

RickJ's Handicapping Picks  The latest in positive EV handicapping Techniques
Sign up now for our daily newsletter with handicapping tips 
Close
Rickj's Handicapping Picks