Political Odds - Rickj's Handicapping Picks
0

26-16 in the Westgate NFL Supercontest with 4 games today. Over 60%!!! College football YTD 58.3%. Westgate NFL Picks, Westgate top and bottom 5 and updated political odds

We are heading into week 9 in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and I sit at 24-16 or 60% This is after a 4-1 week last week! Also for week 9 I have won my first pick on Arizona Thursday night so have a nice headstart heading into this weekend. j

In college football, I went 2-2 yesterday bringing my season to date record to 21-15-1 or 58.3%. I started out the day with two wins on Purdue +4 and Old Dominion +17.5 but then got blown out in the last two games losing with UAB +13.5 and Utah St -3.

In the NFL for plays last week I won with Oakland +6. Bringing my plays to 7-7. We also had a play Thursday with Arizona +10 which was a winner so I sit at 8-7 on NFL plays.

In the all spread contest where I pick every game against the spread, I sit at 71-51 or 58.2%:) I send all of these out to subscribers.

My picks this week in the Westgate NFL Contest are:

Arizona +9.5 W
Jacksonville +1
Washington +9.5
Pitt +1
Baltimore +3

The Westgate top 5 last week went 2-3 bringing its record to 21-19. This is one of the better seasons it has had. Typically it hits about 40% the first half and then picks up a bit the 2nd half of the season.

The top 5 this week are:

Cleve
GB
NE
Min
TB

I am fading 1 of the top fade and am no on any of them.

The bottom 5 this week are:

Arizona
Wash
KC
Den
SF

I am on 2 of the bottom 5 winning with Arizona already.

For those into political odds I have four wagers going right now:

I cashed out of my Louisiana Governors race last week for a nice gain.

I laid 65/35 on the Republican winning the KY Governor’s race. The odds are now 72/28

I laid 87/13 on the Republican winning the MS Governor’s race. The odds are now 88/12

I made a wager on whether Giuliani will be federally indicated by 12/31/20

I received 40/60 on the wager and the odds are now 47/53 (I finally have some equity in the wager) I suspect my equity will increase substantially, and at some point, I will cash out. Perhaps with a 20% return. I hesitate to tie up money for over a year online. But I figured getting 3/2 had a lot of value. The odds are more like 3 to 1 against if not higher.

I have neither an ideology to burden me, nor do I rely upon or listen to the mainstream media. And for that matter there are few at Fox News I rely on either. I have a handful of investigative journalists that have the highest integrity, are truth-tellers, and have no political agenda. They are not easy to find, but I have a handful that gets everything right on the money.

I also rely on several constitutional law experts of the highest integrity, and last but not least my analytical skills. Now, saying that I do not win every wager I make:) But my win rate is very high on political wagers and most wagers for that matter.

It’s still not too late to join us as we are in the middle stages of the NFL and College football with college hoops around the corner. All subscriptions have a 3-day free trial. Just go to the PayPal drop-down menu on this site and choose the monthly option. Hope to see you join us!

Good Luck Today:)

RickJ

http://rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

0

3-2 in College football this weekend, 21-15 in the Westgate NFL Contest, Westgate top 5 and bottom 5, updated political odds

We are heading into week 8 of the West gate NFL Super contest and I sit at 21-15 or 58.33%. I slipped last week going 2-3. However, I won my Thursday night pick with Washington +16 so I have a win heading into today with 4 picks left.

In College football this weekend I went 3-2 for the weekend, bringing my season to date record to 19-13-1 or a solid 59.3% win rate.

I Had Akron +23 L, Marshall -4 L , Tulane +4.5 W, Miami Fla +4.5 W, and S. Alabama U51.5

The way the games went I thought early Marshall was going to be an easy winner going in the lead 17-0 and Tulane a loser falling behind 20-0. But you never know:)

In the NFL for plays last week I went 1-1 Winning with Arizona and losing with Atlanta. That brings me season to date for plays in the NFL to 6-7.

I am also in an NFL Contest where you pick every game against the spread.. I sit in 7th place with a 62-45 record or 57.9%. I give these out to subscribers.

My picks this week in the Westgate NFL contest are:

Washington +16 W
Carolina +5.5
Phil +1.5
Chargers +4
Oakland +6.5

It seems that every week is a tough one these days in finding 5 picks:) That is especially true now that the “Sharps” are keeping the public favorites in line.

The Westgate top 5 went 3-2 last week, bringing its season to date record to 19-16.

The Top 5 this week are:

Carolina
Indy
Seattle
Tampa
Phil

I am with them on 2 of the top 5:( And not fading any of them.

The bottom 5 this week is

Wash
Pitt
Atl
Minn
Cincy

I won with Wash on Thursday and am not on any of the others.

For those into political odds I have four wagers going right now:

I cashed out of my Louisiana Governors race last week for a nice gain.

I laid 65/35 on the Republican winning the KY Governor’s race. The odds are now 68/32

I laid 87/13 on the Republican winning the MS Governor’s race. The odds are now 91/9

I made a wager on whether Giuliani will be federally indicated by 12/31/20

I received 40/60 on the wager and the odds are now 37/63

Finally I have a private wager that Schiff will be removed from office before Trump. The conditions are:
1. The wager ends at midnight before the 2020 presidential election
2. That the death of either of them invalidates the wager.

With Durham now shifting into criminal investigation mode, which I anticipated, the wager will hinge on whether Schiff gets caught up in this as opposed to the Senate convicting Trump. Odds are 4 to 1 against that happening, while I suspect Schiff getting caught up in the criminal probe is at least even money if not a favorite to be investigated.

If neither happen then its a push. I view it as a very good overlay.

How good? You will see when the IG report hits.

To see this you cannot be mired in any political ideology. Otherwise, that wager would be difficult to figure out. Also if you rely on the mainstream media, you would think I have lost my mind.

I have neither an ideology to burden me, nor do I rely upon or listen to the mainstream media. And for that matter there are few at Fox News I rely on either. I have a handful of investigative journalists that have the highest integrity, are truth-tellers, and have no political agenda. They are not easy to find, but I have a handful that gets everything right on the money.

I also rely on several constitutional law experts of the highest integrity, and last but not least my analytical skills. Now, saying that I do not win every wager I make:) But my win rate is very high on political wagers and most wagers for that matter.

It’s still not too late to join us as we are in the middle stages of the NFL and College football with college hoops around the corner. All subscriptions have a 3-day free trial. Just go to the PayPal drop-down menu on this site and choose the monthly option. Hope to see you join us!

Good Luck Today:)

RickJ

http://rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

0

3-2 again in the NFL Super-contest, sitting at 18-10 heading into Week 7, West-gate top and bottom 5, and 4 political wagers posted

We are heading into Week 7 of the Westgate NFL Contest and I sit at 18-10 or 60% after another 3-2 weekend. Still well positioned if I can get any kind of run going.

In College Football I went 2-3 for the weekend, bringing my season to date record to 16-12-1 or 57.1%. Texas San Ant +5.5 W Washington +3 L Bowling Green +11.5 L Georgia Tech +18 W (They won the game) and Oklahoma U 64 L

In the NFL for plays, I sit at 5-6 losing with Cleveland -1 Last week.

I am also in an NFL Contest where you pick every game against the spread. I sit at 56-37 or 60.2%. I give out every one of these picks to subscribers.

My picks this week in the Westgate NFL Supercontest are:

Atlanta +3
Jets +9.5
Arizona +3
Cinci +3.5
Wash +9.5

It was another tough week for picking. But of course, that is the way it is supposed to be:)

The Westgate top 5 went 2-3 last week, with a season to date record of 16-14.

The top 5 this week are:
Giants
Rams
San Fran
Indy
Minn

I am fading 3 of the top 5 this week and that is right where I like to be. I am with none of the top 5.

The bottom 5 this week are:

Denver
Buffalo
Cinci
Wash
Arizona

I am on 3 of the bottom 5 this week.

As a contrarian, this is where I like to be in sports wagering.

For those into political odds I have four wagers going right now:

I laid 57/43 on the Republican winning the LA governor’s race. The odds are now 65/35

I laid 65/35 on the Republican winning the KY Governor’s race. The odds are now 73/37

I laid 87/13 on the Republican winning the MS Governor’s race. The odds are now 96/4

These all looked like very good overlays to me. We will see:)

I also made an interesting private wager:
The terms are as follows:
1. The wager ends at midnight the day before the 2020 Presidential election
2. If either party dies during this period the wager is off
3. I wagered even money that Schiff would be removed from office before Trump

A pretty simple wager:) And perhaps some other time I will tell you what my thinking is and why I am pretty much on a complete freeroll. Now to see this you cannot be mired in any political ideology. Otherwise, that wager would be difficult to figure out. Also if you rely on the mainstream media, you would think I have lost my mind.

I have neither an ideology to burden me, nor do I rely upon or listen to the mainstream media. And for that matter there are few at Fox News I rely on either. I have a handful of investigative journalists that have the highest integrity, are truth-tellers, and have no political agenda. They are not easy to find, but I have a handful that gets everything right on the money.

I also rely on several constitutional law experts of the highest integrity, and last but not least my analytical skills. Now, saying that I do not win every wager I make:) But my win rate is very high on political wagers and most wagers for that matter.

It’s still not too late to join us as we are in the middle stages of the NFL and College football with college hoops around the corner. All subscriptions have a 3-day free trial. Just go to the PayPal drop-down menu on this site and choose the monthly option. Hope to see you join us!

Good Luck Today:)

RickJ

http://rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

Political Odds Updates

9/25/17

Tomorrow is the Alabama special election.  When the line came out at 2 to 1 in favor of strange I had mentioned I thought they had the wrong favorite and estimated the line to be closer to 4 to 1 in favor of Moore.

This morning just a day before the election Moore is now a 6 to 1 favorite. And that might be too low.

This is in spite of McConnell pouring millions into the race.

This race should set the tone for establishment republicans vs Trumpers (for lack of a better word)

My theory is that in 2018 it will be the Trumpers that gain rather than the Dems. The big losers will be the establishment Republicans. The mood is sour among the voters. Even more so when Trump got elected.

If Moore does trounce Strange then the numbers on all establishment Republicans who are being primaried are way too high.

Flake was a favorite when the line opened and he is now a 3 to 2 dog. But the primary my guess is he will be closer to a 4 to 1 or even 6 to 1 dog.

Heller the same.

If you’re looking for a long shot, take a look at Ryan. Ryan is a 5 1/2 to 1 favorite. Take the odds. By the primary, it will be no higher than 3 to 1. And if things really go wrong for Ryan closer to even money.

Do not underestimate the anti-establishment mood in the Country.

Another one to look at is whether the Dems will take control of the house. The odds right now slightly favor the Republicans.

In a normal off-year election the party not in control picks up at least 25 to 30 seats.  However, my guess is this will be far from a normal election off year.

I view the odds more like 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. A nice overlay here.

One more that looks good to me is which party will win the White House in 2020. The odds are 55 to 45 in favor of the Democrats. I think they have the wrong favorite here. I put it at 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans at the very least.

Now a lot can happen between now and 2020. But right now It looks like they have the wrong favorite here.

These odds in no way reflect my personal opinions on any issues. I am fortunate enough not to be burdened with any dogmatic ideology. I am purely an issue-driven person. I find myself on occasion on either side depending on the issue.

Now the more interesting question is whether the establishment Republicans will take heed after Strange gets trounced. Most likely not is my guess. They will go down with the establishment ship.

By 2020 McConnell will not be leading the Senate and Ryan if he survives will not be leading the house.

Let’s see how close I come:)

 

9/12/17

Some changes in the political odds since I have posted last:

Moore has moved to a 5.5 to 1 favorite over strange. No surprise to me and I doubt Strange will even get close even with McConnell’s backing.

Both Heller and Flake are now 2 to 1 dogs to win the primary. These should keep going down and by the primary, I suspect closer to 5 to 1 now on each against them winning.

The Republicans have moved to being a slight favorite 106 to 100 to win the house in 2018. Should be closer to 2 to 1 by election day.

Ryan is now 6 to 1 to win the Primary. The Anti establishment movement has not affected this line yet. I believe it will with a good chance Ryan goes the way or Eric Cantor.

A new line looks attractive here. The odds are 101 to 100 that Menendez gets convicted this year. The only risk I can see is if the trial goes past year end or there is a mistrial. Otherwise, I see the odds of a conviction closer to 10 to 1.

I have not been following the speed in which the trial will proceed so that would need to be determined before a wager on it. But it’s rare to see this type of trial go longer than a month once it has begun.

The lines are moving along with my expectations of the Non-Establishment Republicans getting the benefit of the political chaos that has consumed U.S. politics.

We will get a hint of this on September 26th.

Rick

 

 

 

 

 

9/6/17

Not much activity since I last posted. Moore is moving back to over 3 to 1 favorite in the Alabama special election. I had predicted 4 to 1 even when he was a dog but now I am thinking more like 6 to 1. I do not see much chance of Strange beating him.

Flake is hanging around at a 3 to 2 dog in the Arizona primary. This is another I think is way off. I had predicted 5 to 1 against and I think that is giving him the benefit of the doubt. By the primary, my guess is he will be at least a 5 to 1 dog.

Ryan is a 6.5 to 1 favorite in the Wisconsin Primary. I had put him at around 3 to 1 and by the primary, he might even be less than that.

There is a new matchup posted on Rosenstein. He is a 6 to 1 favorite to be deputy AG on 12/31st. This, in my opinion, is contingent as to when and how the Special Counsel wraps up. If Trump gets past the special counsel threat with it being behind him, my guess is Sessions and Rosenstein will be shown the door.

Now he might wait until after the 2018 elections but that would be a bit of a gamble. So this is a line that is hard to evaluate as its contingent on many variables. All of which I would not hazard a guess on.

Things will be clearer on this soon is my guess.

One I like a lot now is Heller to lose the NV Primary. He is a 2 to 1 favorite to win it and my thought is he should be a 3 to 1 dog. But the primary it would not surprise me to see the odds switched on this one.

That should bring you up to date on these. The first that is coming up is Moore vs Strange. That should give the first clue as to how bad the Republican establishment is going to get hit in the primaries. My feeling is it will be brutal.

Rick

 

 

8/31/17

A few changes in the odds since my last post. Moore has changed from 4 to 1 to 7 to 3. One thing to note about these lines is that the liquidity is so small that any size wager will move the lines. 4 to 1 is still my prediction as to the proper line in favor of Moore.

Kasich has moved down to 5 to 4 favorite to run in 2020. I have not changed my opinion as to it being 5 to 2. If he does decide to run and its Kasich vs Trump in the Primary I put Trump as a 5 to 1 favorite over Kasich. That might even be a bit on the low side.

Control of the House has moved to even money now from 5 to 4. My prediction is control of house 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans.

Flake is still a 6 to 4 dog to win the Az primary. This is one of the best values Ii see on the political odds screen. I view him as at least a 5 to 1 dog.  I commented on this when Flake was a 2 to 1 favorite!

The 2nd best is Ryan in the primary. Ryan is staying steady at 5 to 1 favorite. The line was 7.5 to 1 when I put out the play. I view the odds at no more than 3 to 1. And I would not be surprised to see the line close to 2 to 1 by the primary.

My view is that Establishment Republicans are going to get crushed in 2018. However not by the Dems but by nonestablishment Republicans.  Nothing has changed in the way the electorate views Congress except that their view is worse than it was when Trump was elected if that is possible.

Congress has been blind to this and by the time they wake up if ever, it will be too late. From the Russia investigation to not condemning Antifa the mistakes keep piling up. And importantly the people’s business has been thrown aside for partisan politics by both parties.

I do not see this changing. It appears to me it is only going to get worse as both Ryan and McConnell now are going out of their way to speak out against Trump. In addition, Trump has learned that appeasement is not the right course with Congress. He has now chosen a path of direct confrontation.

That leads me to Trump’s agenda. We saw what happened to health care. I expect a similar fate on tax cuts, immigration, debt ceiling and the wall. Congress as I see it will do whatever they can to make sure Trump has not delivered on his major campaign promises. As McCain said after casting the deciding vote on the Health care bill. “Let’s see Trump Make America great now!  Or something to that effect.

The mistake the Republican’s are making is thinking that their actions will hurt Trump. I doubt the base will go for it. My guess is as I have stated Establishment Republicans are going to take the hit in the primaries and in the General it will be the Dems.

I do not say this with glee however as the two party system is essential to provide a proper balance in a Democracy. So hopefully there will be moderates on both sides to provide some leadership before we turn into a one party system.

I will post updates every few days as I see the odds change and new situations posted.

If anyone has any questions regarding the odds of a certain event feel free to comment on this site or send me an email at [email protected]

 

 

 

8/29/17

Moore holding steady as a 4 to 1 favorite. It hit my target of 4 to 1 about 2 weeks ago after Moore being a dog a few months ago when I pointed out the EV on the wager.

Flake has now moved to a 2 to 1 dog. Moving nicely to my 5 to 1 target. I have very little doubt it will get there.

Ryan is now down to 5 to 1 moving closer to my 3 to 1 target. I suspect 3 to 1 might be too generous as by primary time he may be closer to even money.

Kasich has now moved to a 2 to 1 favorite to run in 2020. Getting close to my 5 to 2.

Nothing new lately on political odds that looks good to me. One that I would like to see as who is the first to go If Trump gets the Russia issue behind him, including the special counsel.

My guess is it will be Sessions. Although he might wait until after the 2018 primaries. I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

That’s it for this morning. Always interesting to evaluate political odds. Many variables to consider:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Contact Us

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Not readable? Change text. captcha txt
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!
Sign up now for our  newsletter. Includes handicapping tips

Time to start thinking about the NFL!

RickJ's Handicapping Picks  The latest in positive EV handicapping Techniques

NFL Last two years: 
50-31 +11.55  +14.26% ROI

NCAA FB last two years:
73-46  +20.75   +17.44% ROI
 
Sign up now for our newsletter with handicapping tips 
Close