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Revisiting the current pollical odds landscape

Several key primaries coming up soon.

The one race that seems strange to me is Murkowski in Alaska. Most votes goes to TShibaka 79/25 But the odds of Murkowski getting reelected is 71/29. I am not sure how to reconcile that one.

Murkowski has said several times she thinks she might not win the primary. That would have been my thought considering that virtually every endorsement of Trumps has won.

Next in Arizona it appears Cheney is finished. She is a 95/5 dog in the race. That seems about right to me.

For governor Lake is a 90/10 favorite to get the nomination. That also seem spot on.

Next speaker of the house , McCarthy is a 76/% favorite.  I like the other side of that one. The Republicans will most likely take the house, but depending on how the primary’s go, McCarthy may not get the vote to Speaker.  Getting 3 to 1 is not a bad number on that one.

There are races now for the midterms even though in some the candidate is not set.  Walker in Ga is a 4/6 dog to get that Senate seat. I have bet that race at much worse odds. I layed 6/4 on Walker. So obviously I would be taking 4/6 here.

Control of the Senate is 51/49 Republicans.  That is probably the correct line. The GOP has pissed off enough of the base that this will be a close one. The question is what % of the base will not turn out for them. They have gone out of their way to not take the Senate back. If I was forced to wager on this I would take the Dems.

In the House the line is 87/15 in favor of the Republicans. I would not lay that number. But I doubt the Dems will be able to keep the House.

Biden is a 31% chance of getting the Dem nomination. I would take the other side of that one and lay the odds. I do not see any  chance of him getting the nomination in 2024. You can lay 3 to 1 and rest easy.

Arizona Senate race has the Dems a 57/43 Favorite. I would take the odds on this one. Its a tossup at best.

Trump and DeSantis are tied at 29% to win the Presidency in 2024.  My opinion is if DeSantis on on the top of the ticket the line should be around 10 to 1 that he wins. If Trump is on top of the ticket its probably 10 to 1 against. If you think 2020 was bad, they will double down to make sure Trump does not win. DeSantis on the other hand would get the support that Trump does not have from the establishment, and the Hispanic vote would turn out in record numbers.

Let me add, I am not convinced Trump is going to run. I would put the line out at a tossup right now.

If anyone has any particular race they are interested drop me an email.

Also remember that NCAA FB starts on 8/27, less than a month away.

I have had MLB season free for everyone. But that ends on 8/27. All subscriptions that have been put on pause

will start back up then. And those that are on a free subscription will need to sign up to continue getting plays.

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Hope to see you join us for the upcoming NFL and NCAA FB Season

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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Political odds update and comments as of 6/27/22 now posted!!!

It has been awhile since I posted anything regarding political odds here. Primarily the reason was the stopping of the count in the November elections with the fallout resulting from that.  Betting on politics has introduced a new variable into the equation:  Voter Fraud. 

Now some deny it exists while others point the finger at both parties. Needless to say , without coming to any conclusions either way, it is a variable that has to be considered.  From a gamblers perspective, ignoring it completely would put you at a big disadvantage. But for the astute gambler, and one that can use some critical thinking, this variable can be a very valuable one if given the correct weighting in your bag of tricks to find value.

With that in mind lets take a look at some of the odds on Predictit.org this morning:

And before I begin I have one wager working right now, I laid just under 6 to 4 that Walker would win the Senate race in Georgia. Now any of my wager may or may not reflect my position on the race. But rest assured it does reflect my opinion on where I think the value is based upon the line.

That race is an interesting one as arguably Georgia is a red state, yet two Democrats are in the Senate with a Republican Governor and Republican Secretary of State. So, the obvious question is why is 2022 going to be any different then 2020 for Georgia.

I am going under the assumption that one or both of the Senate seats were lost because the establishment GOP decided that was a loss they were willing to take to rid themselves of Trump. Collateral damage for lack of a better word:)

This time around Trump is not on the ballot as its the midterms. And if he was , the race would most likely fall to the incumbent.  But, this time around, Walker appears to have the edge. How much of one. If I were putting out a line I would have made it at least 4 to 1 in favor of Walker. He is very popular in Ga, and that carries over across party lines. His opponent got the benefit of a Republican establishment that was going to do whatever it took to make sure Trump did not get a 2nd term. Now, they might just concentrate on getting the Senate back. But with the Establishment Republicans as we have seen anything can happen. Their innate ability to self destruct is like none I have ever witnessed before.

But McConnell has thrown his support behind Walker, and that is that. So, the roadblocks that existed before are gone.

There is much more to the analysis, but that is my short version. The person I wagered is a die hard liberal, who when you discuss political issues with him, you would swear you were listening to a CNN commentator:)  But saying that he is one of my best friends, and I have known him ever since I moved to Vegas. One of the few here that has some semblance of a heart.

In any event, that does not prevent me from wagering with him. We are both gamblers, and enjoy the wager.

I view Walker right now as the best value on the board at the moment. I would not be surprised to see the line at lest 80 /20 by election night.

Now lets look at some other lines:

Presidential Nominee for the Republicans:

 

 

Personally I would rather wager on whether Trump will run in 2024. I would put the line out at 3 to 2 he does not run. Perhaps higher.  And DeSantis, I am not sure what his intentions are at the moment. Of course anyone of the ones below them would run in a heartbeat if given the opportunity. So right now this is a line I am staying away from. I want to wait until Trump decides yea  or nay. And let me add , it is not a given he will endorse DeSantis. One thing is certain however he will not be endorsing Pence:)

 

Again I would rather wager on whether or not Biden runs in 2024.  My line is 8 to 1 he does not.  Other then that this is one that is crapshoot right now. Just too much going on to come up with an intelligent idea of what the lines should be.

Next we have the GOP a 88/14 favorite to win the House in 2022.  I would not lay it, but absent something very unusual the Dems will lose the House this time around. Just historically that has been the situation, but combine the economic woes of the US and the Hispanic population leaving the Dem party in droves is not a harbinger of good things to come for the Dems in 2022 in the House.  The line now is a pass for me.

 

The Republicans are a 73/30 to win the Senate this year. That is too high as far as I see it. The Senate is a bit different in that the establishment Republican’s seem hell bent on making sure their base stays home. I view McConnell as one of the most destructive forces of all time for everyday Americans. He is probably the best argument for term limits you will ever see. But saying that 73/30 is way too high. My view would be something like 55/45. And with 14 establishment Republicans ushering in Red flag laws make no mistake that 73/30 is delusional.

 

You also have the added variable of whether Trump gets indicted before 2022 as a result of the Jan 6 committee.  That of course can cut both ways. But, in as much as establishment Republicans have contributed to this , it would just be another reason for the base to stay home.

 

Florida Gubernatorial winner:

DeSantis 89/11. it should be something like 99/1:) They have their ducks in order conducting their elections. So that removes one variable from the equation. And the cross over vote will be substantial. I would lay the 9 to 1 and sleep very well at night.

 

Trump losing GOP primary poll by July 17 is 98/2 against. And that line is spot on. Whether the establishment likes it or not, the base is solidly in his corner. Probably the most one sided support any politicians has gotten in my life time. But again that does not mean he is going to run. There are a number of other considerations that one can make a reasonable assumption he will not run.

 

Which party will win the Florida Senate Race  Republicans 92 to 7. Which means Rubio who is running virtually unopposed in the primary will be given another six years. My prediction is like Graham, it will be only days until he is back to form as a Trump hating , base hating establishment Republican. Lets look back in 8 months and see who close this prediction gets.

Trump indicted by Sept 1st is 85 to 15 against. I assume that is a federal indictment. If it were 10/31 I would be inclined to take the 8.5 to 1. But even 9/1 at that price has value. With this DOJ and an almost certain referral to the DOJ for prosecution it would take a miracle (like Trump agreeing not to run) to ward off an indictment.

 

Murkowski to be reelected 70/30 in favor. I have to admit this line mystifies me. If there was ever a candidate you would think would be toast this time around it would be Murkowski for many reasons. But I most likely will take my lumps and take the 30 to 70.   This is like looking at an NFL line that looks like a cinch, and you know how those typically turn out.

 

Nevada governor race 52/47 Dems.  This line has dropped from 65/35 primarily because all the establishment Republicans won their primary. Voter fraud is being alleged with investigations starting. But, the risk now is the base stays home, as reflected in the line. If there is one thing the base dislikes as much as the progressive left its the establishment side of the Republican party. The Dems could have moved to the center and picked up many of these voters but they choose the road to attack them instead. A political error.  So you have an instance where both Republicans and Democrats are taking strategies that are far less then optimal. One could argue they are both self destructive.

 

Cheney House GOP Nominee 90 to 10 against winning the primary. They say there are only two certain things in life, death and taxes. But I would add a third. Chaney losing the primary.  They could get 10,000 mules and it would not help her. Her last hope was the Dems registering in the republican primary to vote her in, but her statement on Roe closed that road. Her and Kinzinger will be off vacationing together after Jan 1st:)

 

There are many other interesting races and will become more interesting as we get closer to November.  I plan on updating this at least once a week now.

Also note, any comments I make do not necessarily reflect any particular view I have on any issue. For the most part I am apolitical. Lean libertarian, and practice a live and let live approach to life in general. I approach political odds like I approach investing in the markets and handicapping sports. Purely analytical.  And for me me that includes quantifying what is typically unquantifiable. That is my strong suit. 

Of course I am not always correct in my assessments. But the test is more likely than not. And when you gamble if your laying 11 to 10 the break even mark is 52.4%. That is why I like to make private wagers rather then use the books when I can find someone who likes the other side.

But unlike sports betting the overlays tend to be much higher when you can find them.

Hope you enjoyed this update. I am always open to questions or comments via this site or email to [email protected]

Or I have a special not where MLB is free for the season.  First time in 20 years I have did this, as I am using a new data base for my handicapping.

So far on my Overnight Sides in MLB Season to date is:

Overnights
Sides: 75-74 +15.98 (Top to bottom swing has been -4.5 to +17.95)   ROI 10.72%

So the new data base is working out well. You can sign on for free access by sending my an email to [email protected] and I will add you to the email list and also my slack channels.

That will be free until the first game of NCAA FB, when I go back to a subscription service.

Good luck

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds/

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Political Odds primary observations along with some general election commentary

Its a slow time now, with only MLB going and in a few weeks College football starts and then the NFL.

MLB is hovering around breakeven for the season, with Totals the standout , and despite beating the closing line by almost 70% on the overnights the plays are slightly negative for the season.

So, the special could go either way at this point:)

But, now is a good time to take a look at political odds. We are rapidly approaching primary season where to me there are some outstanding wagers.

I had the opinion that fading Republicans that were running in the primary that either voted to impeach Trump or convict him  would be a very profitable across the board wager.

This was reinforced by Ohio, where the Establishment spent massive amounts of money to prevent Trump’s pick, Mike Kerry. Not only did he win but he won easily considering the crowed Republican field.

So lets look at some of the odds on Predictit.org.

To start off I had a few questions about several races.

The first was what I felt was Newsom’s chances of being recalled in Ca. The odds this morning are 3 to 1 against him being recalled. That line appears about right to me. I know the headlines are that he is in trouble, however, the way the mail in voting is set up in Ca, I doubt anyone can beat him. The line would have to be much higher for me to consider betting against the recall.

The second was whether Cuomo would resign. The odds right now are 3 to 1 against him resigning by 9/17 but its a bit over 3/1 that he will not be in  office by the end of the year.  My guess is a deal will eventually be made and he will retire quietly. So both lines to me are hard to wager on as there are external forces that are unknown going on behind the scenes daily on this one. Best to stay away from this wager.

Republicans are a bit over a 2 to 1 favorite to retake the House. That looks about right to me. Most of the recent elections seem to bear that out. If anything 2 to 1 seems a bit low. But I do not see any value right now betting either side of this one.

The Senate last I looked was a toss up. The value is on the Republicans at a toss up, however, never underestimate the Republicans self destructing which they are doing right now. A lot will hinge on the primary. If the establishment is successful in winning primary’s then there is a reasonable chance the base will not come out. Ga is a good example of that.

If however a lot of establishment Republicans get upset in the primary, then the chances of a Republican lead senate increase substantially.  This of course is contrary to the idea that the incumbent has the edge. However, among the Republican base, the establishment Republicans have such a low approval rating that I do not think this factors in this time.

All in all I would put the line at 3 to2 in favor of the Republicans taking back the Senate.

The best wager I can see is to fade every Republican in the primary that voted to impeach Trump or convict him. I would not cherry pick these but just wager the same amount across the board.

Regardless of your feelings toward Trump, the fact is the base is still behind him. I do not think the primary season will be kind to those that voted against him on impeachment.

Some of the more vocal members :

Kinzinger is a 3 to 1 dog to win the primary

Cheney is a 5 to  2 dog

Murkowsi is a 6 to 4  favorite

Lines are not up on many of the races yet. However, fade them all, and I doubt you will be negative when the smoke clears.

Another interesting wager revolves around McCarthy. McCarthy’s popularity is getting lower and lower. I do not think he is an automatic to win the his House seat although as of right now I do not see a serious challenger. It is a race to watch for an opportunity.

The other is Rubio in Florida. Here again the field is not set and as of yet no on serious has come forward. Make no mistake Rubio is as establishment as they come. If he gets a serious opponent the line is going to be very high in Rubio’s favor. This would be an excellent long shot wager in my opinion. We will have to see how this develops.

You have several things to weigh here. There will be massive amounts of money going to support the establishment Republicans. Also the RNC will be behind the establishment candidate. A good example is Herschel Walker in Georgia. The establishment Republicans have already come out against him, even though the reality is he would be an easy winner in the general. 

The establishment Republicans are driven not be who is most likely to succeed but who is most likely to  not make waves once they get into office. This strategy has cost them seats the most recent being in Alabama when they cancelled Mo Brooks and ended up losing a Senate seat in Deep Red Alabama, and the Ga, where both candidates, both unpopular establishment tow the line candidates, could not muster the base in red Georgia. Collins on the other hand would have been an easy Senate pick up, which McConnell nixed out of hand.

Essentially what you have is the establishment Republicans giving up EV, for the sake of not giving up their own power. And it is costing them dearly. The failure to accept reality in politics is probably the worst mistake you can make. In what world does a party think they can win by alienating its base??? Yet, the Republican continue on this self destructive path with  no end in site. 

So as I see it, the voters will decide the general primary season. 

Now,  I could of course be wrong:)  But to me its pretty clear as to  the dynamics  at work. The establishment Republicans war on Trump and his supporters may well do them in as a  viable party.

The only thing that I can see that would prevent this is the Democrat strategy. The Democrats had a rare opportunity this time around. Over 75 million Americans voted for Trump, which consists of almost 90% of the Republican  base. One thing they have in common with many of the Democrats is their distaste for the establishment Republicans.

The Democrats have chosen a strategy that not only does not take advantage of this, but gives the base a “Sophies Choice” so to speak. Two impossible choices, which the end result may well be forcing them to choose establishment Republicans. 

All the Democrats had to do was move a bit to the center, not demonize Trump voters, and praise Trump for some of his policies. This could have  moved a large % of the Trump supporters who could not stomach the Republican establishment to consider voting Democrat this time around. But, the Dems not only did the exact opposite, they did it in spades.

It seems neither side has the ability to shift gears. That is what is going to  make this election season a crapshoot. Except of course in the Republican primary when the base is going to come out in record numbers to consider that it is their patriotic duty to get rid of the “traitors” that voted to impeach or convict Trump.

So simply right now, the only wager I can see that has a lot of EV is the fade I have been talking about. 

I will  have more as the races become more defined.

Remember football season is almost here. You can subscribe by going to rickjshandicappingpicks.com, and choosing the subscription of choice from the drop down PayPal menu. All subscriptions have a 3 day free trial.

Also if you have any questions you can email me at [email protected] and  I will answer them for you.

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My plays are sent out via twitter, email and now Slack.

As an added feature that is included in the subscription, I post most of my stock trades on slack. My trades consist of mean reversion, pullback , income trades and also 2 day short put sales.

The 2 day short put sales are made on Thursday with Friday expiration. These have been as solid a method as you will find so far. 325 Trades  306 winners 19 losers with a 94.15% success rate and a  profit factor of 3.89.   The drawdowns have been minimal.

RickJ

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Political Odds Updates

9/25/17

Tomorrow is the Alabama special election.  When the line came out at 2 to 1 in favor of strange I had mentioned I thought they had the wrong favorite and estimated the line to be closer to 4 to 1 in favor of Moore.

This morning just a day before the election Moore is now a 6 to 1 favorite. And that might be too low.

This is in spite of McConnell pouring millions into the race.

This race should set the tone for establishment republicans vs Trumpers (for lack of a better word)

My theory is that in 2018 it will be the Trumpers that gain rather than the Dems. The big losers will be the establishment Republicans. The mood is sour among the voters. Even more so when Trump got elected.

If Moore does trounce Strange then the numbers on all establishment Republicans who are being primaried are way too high.

Flake was a favorite when the line opened and he is now a 3 to 2 dog. But the primary my guess is he will be closer to a 4 to 1 or even 6 to 1 dog.

Heller the same.

If you’re looking for a long shot, take a look at Ryan. Ryan is a 5 1/2 to 1 favorite. Take the odds. By the primary, it will be no higher than 3 to 1. And if things really go wrong for Ryan closer to even money.

Do not underestimate the anti-establishment mood in the Country.

Another one to look at is whether the Dems will take control of the house. The odds right now slightly favor the Republicans.

In a normal off-year election the party not in control picks up at least 25 to 30 seats.  However, my guess is this will be far from a normal election off year.

I view the odds more like 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. A nice overlay here.

One more that looks good to me is which party will win the White House in 2020. The odds are 55 to 45 in favor of the Democrats. I think they have the wrong favorite here. I put it at 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans at the very least.

Now a lot can happen between now and 2020. But right now It looks like they have the wrong favorite here.

These odds in no way reflect my personal opinions on any issues. I am fortunate enough not to be burdened with any dogmatic ideology. I am purely an issue-driven person. I find myself on occasion on either side depending on the issue.

Now the more interesting question is whether the establishment Republicans will take heed after Strange gets trounced. Most likely not is my guess. They will go down with the establishment ship.

By 2020 McConnell will not be leading the Senate and Ryan if he survives will not be leading the house.

Let’s see how close I come:)

 

9/12/17

Some changes in the political odds since I have posted last:

Moore has moved to a 5.5 to 1 favorite over strange. No surprise to me and I doubt Strange will even get close even with McConnell’s backing.

Both Heller and Flake are now 2 to 1 dogs to win the primary. These should keep going down and by the primary, I suspect closer to 5 to 1 now on each against them winning.

The Republicans have moved to being a slight favorite 106 to 100 to win the house in 2018. Should be closer to 2 to 1 by election day.

Ryan is now 6 to 1 to win the Primary. The Anti establishment movement has not affected this line yet. I believe it will with a good chance Ryan goes the way or Eric Cantor.

A new line looks attractive here. The odds are 101 to 100 that Menendez gets convicted this year. The only risk I can see is if the trial goes past year end or there is a mistrial. Otherwise, I see the odds of a conviction closer to 10 to 1.

I have not been following the speed in which the trial will proceed so that would need to be determined before a wager on it. But it’s rare to see this type of trial go longer than a month once it has begun.

The lines are moving along with my expectations of the Non-Establishment Republicans getting the benefit of the political chaos that has consumed U.S. politics.

We will get a hint of this on September 26th.

Rick

 

 

 

 

 

9/6/17

Not much activity since I last posted. Moore is moving back to over 3 to 1 favorite in the Alabama special election. I had predicted 4 to 1 even when he was a dog but now I am thinking more like 6 to 1. I do not see much chance of Strange beating him.

Flake is hanging around at a 3 to 2 dog in the Arizona primary. This is another I think is way off. I had predicted 5 to 1 against and I think that is giving him the benefit of the doubt. By the primary, my guess is he will be at least a 5 to 1 dog.

Ryan is a 6.5 to 1 favorite in the Wisconsin Primary. I had put him at around 3 to 1 and by the primary, he might even be less than that.

There is a new matchup posted on Rosenstein. He is a 6 to 1 favorite to be deputy AG on 12/31st. This, in my opinion, is contingent as to when and how the Special Counsel wraps up. If Trump gets past the special counsel threat with it being behind him, my guess is Sessions and Rosenstein will be shown the door.

Now he might wait until after the 2018 elections but that would be a bit of a gamble. So this is a line that is hard to evaluate as its contingent on many variables. All of which I would not hazard a guess on.

Things will be clearer on this soon is my guess.

One I like a lot now is Heller to lose the NV Primary. He is a 2 to 1 favorite to win it and my thought is he should be a 3 to 1 dog. But the primary it would not surprise me to see the odds switched on this one.

That should bring you up to date on these. The first that is coming up is Moore vs Strange. That should give the first clue as to how bad the Republican establishment is going to get hit in the primaries. My feeling is it will be brutal.

Rick

 

 

8/31/17

A few changes in the odds since my last post. Moore has changed from 4 to 1 to 7 to 3. One thing to note about these lines is that the liquidity is so small that any size wager will move the lines. 4 to 1 is still my prediction as to the proper line in favor of Moore.

Kasich has moved down to 5 to 4 favorite to run in 2020. I have not changed my opinion as to it being 5 to 2. If he does decide to run and its Kasich vs Trump in the Primary I put Trump as a 5 to 1 favorite over Kasich. That might even be a bit on the low side.

Control of the House has moved to even money now from 5 to 4. My prediction is control of house 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans.

Flake is still a 6 to 4 dog to win the Az primary. This is one of the best values Ii see on the political odds screen. I view him as at least a 5 to 1 dog.  I commented on this when Flake was a 2 to 1 favorite!

The 2nd best is Ryan in the primary. Ryan is staying steady at 5 to 1 favorite. The line was 7.5 to 1 when I put out the play. I view the odds at no more than 3 to 1. And I would not be surprised to see the line close to 2 to 1 by the primary.

My view is that Establishment Republicans are going to get crushed in 2018. However not by the Dems but by nonestablishment Republicans.  Nothing has changed in the way the electorate views Congress except that their view is worse than it was when Trump was elected if that is possible.

Congress has been blind to this and by the time they wake up if ever, it will be too late. From the Russia investigation to not condemning Antifa the mistakes keep piling up. And importantly the people’s business has been thrown aside for partisan politics by both parties.

I do not see this changing. It appears to me it is only going to get worse as both Ryan and McConnell now are going out of their way to speak out against Trump. In addition, Trump has learned that appeasement is not the right course with Congress. He has now chosen a path of direct confrontation.

That leads me to Trump’s agenda. We saw what happened to health care. I expect a similar fate on tax cuts, immigration, debt ceiling and the wall. Congress as I see it will do whatever they can to make sure Trump has not delivered on his major campaign promises. As McCain said after casting the deciding vote on the Health care bill. “Let’s see Trump Make America great now!  Or something to that effect.

The mistake the Republican’s are making is thinking that their actions will hurt Trump. I doubt the base will go for it. My guess is as I have stated Establishment Republicans are going to take the hit in the primaries and in the General it will be the Dems.

I do not say this with glee however as the two party system is essential to provide a proper balance in a Democracy. So hopefully there will be moderates on both sides to provide some leadership before we turn into a one party system.

I will post updates every few days as I see the odds change and new situations posted.

If anyone has any questions regarding the odds of a certain event feel free to comment on this site or send me an email at [email protected]

 

 

 

8/29/17

Moore holding steady as a 4 to 1 favorite. It hit my target of 4 to 1 about 2 weeks ago after Moore being a dog a few months ago when I pointed out the EV on the wager.

Flake has now moved to a 2 to 1 dog. Moving nicely to my 5 to 1 target. I have very little doubt it will get there.

Ryan is now down to 5 to 1 moving closer to my 3 to 1 target. I suspect 3 to 1 might be too generous as by primary time he may be closer to even money.

Kasich has now moved to a 2 to 1 favorite to run in 2020. Getting close to my 5 to 2.

Nothing new lately on political odds that looks good to me. One that I would like to see as who is the first to go If Trump gets the Russia issue behind him, including the special counsel.

My guess is it will be Sessions. Although he might wait until after the 2018 primaries. I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

That’s it for this morning. Always interesting to evaluate political odds. Many variables to consider:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks



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