Political Odds - Rickj's Handicapping Picks
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Westgate NFL Contest record and picks, Westgate top and bottom 5, Updated political odds with 2 decent new wagers, and the lesson of the week for sports bettors:)

We are heading into week 14 of the Westgate NFL Supercontest and I sit at 37-29 or 56%. Last week I had another 3-2 week while heading into this week my first pick on the Bears Thursday evening was an easy win.

In college football, we went 0-1 this week losing with LA Layfayette +6. They fell behind 21-0 but then got their offense going only losing by 7 in a real shootout. That brings my record to date in College football to 31-22-1 or a solid 58.49 %. The ROI for the season is now 12.8%. I will take this every season.

LESSON OF THE WEEK:

Let me add that betting sports day in and day out is one of the toughest endeavors you can attempt and end up with a positive EV. You have a lot working against you:

1. The vig. If you are at a -110 sportsbook you have a 5% number to overcome before you start making money. That is no small number, the casinos at the dice tables take all the money with just a 1.5% edge, assuming you are a pass line bettor. In blackjack, it all depends on whether you are a card counter and the casino you are playing at. This is one of the few table games where you can actually get an edge. But the atmosphere is not conducive to card counters and has not been for many years now.

When I moved to vegas and played poker full time, at the end of the day I had 4 casinos nearby I would give blackjack action to before I headed home. Mostly to wind down for the day. They all had good rules for card counters and their scrutiny was just sufficient enough where you could play an hour without risk of getting caught. But the rule was, an hour max at each casino. And even then you had to mask your betting strategy a bit. But I suspect, things have even gotten tougher now, but I have been out of the card counting routine for some time.

So, compare 5% to other forms of gambling and it is quite high. You can shave that a bit by looking for books that have 10C lines. Also to have multiple books, both sharp books, and public books. But even if you do all that the best you can do is shave it down to 2 to 3 % against you before you make a wager.

2. Human nature. It was true when I started gambling as it is true today. Human nature runs contrary to being a successful sports bettor. Everyone that is drawn to gambling has a self-destructive side to them. After all what normal person is going to be driven to gambling:) So, the first step is to recognize it and then control it. This is what destroys many, as many do not even accept the idea that it exists, some do not care, and some do not have the intellectual ability to deal with it.

Myself, I caught it at an early age, and even then it was no small task to get it under control. The plunge factor or Tilt factor is a manifestation of the self-destructive tendencies of gamblers. The bottom line is that unless you know about it and learn to control it, you have little to no chance of surviving in this cutthroat world of gambling.

3. Variance: Another tricky subject. But it is simply pure math. Albeit it is easier to calculate in sports betting then poker. If you do not understand what I have just said, quit gambling until you do! This is one of the most important concepts you have to learn. You can be the best in the world at handicapping but if you do not have an understanding of variance you will end up broke.

I have played poker with players whose minds were quite extraordinary. And if they had a respect for variance they would still be around:) But in all forms of gambling, the tendency is to wager more then your bankroll allows. Which in many cases almosts makes the risk of ruin a 100% certainty. Also, understand if you have only a 5 % risk of ruin, you still have a variance to deal with:)

These are all complex subject and I have just touched the surface of them. But, all 3 have to be mastered, or you have no chance in the long run, no matter how good you are at sports betting or poker.

In the NFL for plays week 13, I went 2-1 bringing my season to date record heading into week 14 at 15-15. We started out week 14 with a win do I now sit at 16-15 heading into day season to date.

In the all spread contest where I pick every game against the spread, I sit at 107-86 or 54.87%. Anytime you can pick close to 55% against the spread in the NFL picking every game for the season is a good number. I sit in 17th place in that contest:) Some tough handicappers there as the field is only 114 as opposed to 2400 left in the Westgate NFL contest.

My picks this week in the Westgate NFL SuperContest are:

Chicago +3 (W)
New Eng -3
Arizona +2.5
Rams Even
Giants +9.5

According to my projections 12-3, the last 3 week could get my close to the top 100 and cash. 15-0 almost a certainty. That is a tall order:)

In addition, Westgate has a contest for the last 3 weeks built-in which started on Thursday. My guess is you will need at least 14-1 to win it:) Just randomly with that many entries someone will have that number.

Last week the top 5 in the Supercontest went 2-3 bring their record season to date at 32-31-2. This season has not gone according to previous seasons for the contest. Typically the first 1/3 of the season they are hovering under 40% and then at some point, start rebounding. This season has been the exact opposite.

The Westgate Top 5 this week are:

Rams
Cinci
San Fran
KC
NO

I am with them on the Rams:( I am fading them on the Chiefs. Interestingly both teams San Fran and NO made the top 5. You do not see that very often as they are playing each other.

The bottom 5 this week is:

Bears
Phil
Cleve
Carolina
Houston

I was on their absolute bottom pick with the bears, but I am fading Phil.

So let’s see if I can start the last 3 weeks with at least 4-1:)

Now a quick look at the political odds:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 72/29 +25 Pts

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 89/11 +12 Pts ( I expect this to happen)

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 13/87 +1 Pt (This is the one to watch) Staying at the lows

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 84/16 -1 Pt (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs
U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 43/57 -1 Pts
Warren: 8/82 – 2 Pts
Biden: 16/84 +2 Pts
Buttigieg 12/88 – 1 Pt
Sanders 14/86 + 4 Pts
Bloomberg 6/94 -1 Pt
Clinton 4/97 No Change

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 36/64 +5 Pts I laid 38/62

I planned on selling This wager with a 10% to 20% gain after the IG report hits or the Durham report hits. That should send this higher. It is already bouncing back from the lows. and I am back to almost what I paid for the wager. After the IG report hits on Monday I suspect this number will shoot up 10 points pretty fast. At a little under 3 to 1, I think this is an excellent wager. EV is most likely over 50%.

I made an early cashout on my Netanyahu wager making a 100% return in about a month. This one was one of the best I had seen in a very long time. People were not recognizing the realities of Israeli elections. They are complex and oftentimes takes months and months to form a coalition before a new prime minister steps in. In this case, I would still not count Netanyahu out. He is a master at the political maneuverings inside a complex system. That is why now, the odds are just a little under 20 to 1 he will still be Prime Minister at the end of the year.

As far as new wagers. A long shot would be taking 5/2 that the house will not impeach by year-end. I still think they may be short the votes. And you are getting about 5 to 2. But the EV on this one is too small for me to wager.

Another one you could consider is taking 6 to 1 that the Senate will convict. As long as the requirement is that the house must impeach before the wager is valid. My thought is you will get a bounce when the house impeaches, and then knowing the Senate, there will be some drama. They do not do anything without drama. This should push the line down to 4 to 1 easily and then you could cash out with a 100% profit.

At a quick glance, those look like the best two wagers I can see at the moment.

Monday will tell a lot as the IG report hits. Forget the spin. The report will be 500 pages. Either read it or see what Solomon, Turley, Dershowitz, and Kimberley Strassel have to say. They are all pretty reliable factually. None are cable news anchors, None are associated with the Mainstream media except for Strassel who has maintained her integrity and independence through all of this. You will get a no spin rundown of what the IG report reveals and some idea of its significance. Otherwise, you will be just like the other sheep, who are manipulated by the media and the politicians. That is not where you want to be if you can easily avoid it.

And remember the IG report is just the beginning. Durham and Huber are behind the scenes ready to drop indictments. At least, that is the way I see it right now:)

It’s still not too late to join us as we are in the end stages of the NFL and College football with college hoops just beginning. We have the bowl games, NFL playoffs also coming up.

In addition, the NBA first-half wagers have been on fire, something like a 6-0 run:) All subscriptions have a 3-day free trial. Just go to the PayPal drop-down menu on this site and choose the monthly option. Hope to see you join us!

Good Luck Today:)

RickJ

http://rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

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Westgate, Season to date NFL and College football records, Westgate top and bottom 5, November wagering breakdown, updated political odds. And some thoughts on it all:)

We are heading into week 13 of the Westgate NFL Contest and I sit at 33-27 or 55%. Last week I went 3-2 and I started out this weekend with a loss on Atlanta +7 Thursday night.

In college football, we went 4-2 for the weekend bringing our season to date record to 31-21-1 or a solid 59.61%.

In the NFL for plays last week we went 2-2 bring our season to date record to 13-14. This includes the Thursday night game.

My picks in the Westgate NFL Supercontest this week are:

Atlanta +7 (L)
Minn +3
Houston +3
KC -10
Rams -3

Not a good week for picks and my best Atlanta has already gone down:(

The Westgate Top 5 last week went 4-1 bringing its season to date record to 30-28-2.

The Westgate top 5 this week are:

Green Bay
New England
San Fran
Jets
Arizona

I am fading 2 or the top 5 and not with any of them. That is how I like it:)

The bottom 5 this week are:

Detroit
Atlanta
Wash
Giants
Denver

I am on one of the bottom five and it has already lost.

November is now over and we find ourselves +7.65 Units for the month. It was an interesting month with the Standout being the NBA where we picked up 11.8 UNITS helped by a new wager I have this season, first half sides. so far they were 8-1 in November:) The disappointing sport this month was college hoops where we lost 7.3 units hurt by the sides that went 1-8:( What was a solid setup was dismal in November. Also, the college totals which typically are solid in November we went 5-5 for -.5 units.

I expect things to pick up in college hoops. In sports betting things do not always run true to form as you know, especially those that have been with me for over 15 years now:) Time flys and I can say I am among the few sports handicapping that can show a nice profit handicapping sports every day for 15 years.

I attribute the reason for being that I am always looking for new edges. Overnight sides in MLB was a real winning addition. And now we have the first half sides in the NBA.
College football is always solid, and the NFL is always solid, except this season we are slightly below break-even.

All you can do is keep plugging away: If I ever find myself where I do not think I have an edge anymore I will hang it up. So far I am a long way from that. I enjoy the mental exercise of handicapping as its one of the toughest endeavors you will find. I assure you well over 90% of the sports bettors lose money betting sports. That number is probably a bit low. So it takes research, patience, good respect for variance and good money management to stay in the game.

Now, let’s take a look at the political odds:

This is something new for me. I took an interest in it when I found that the lines were created primarily by public opinion as opposed to reality. I say that as the lines more often than not reflect polling (not internal polling) and it’s my opinion that these polls are mostly worthless. Like everything else, they have become politicized and used as a tool rather than an accurate representation of what reality is. Combine that with the idea that many bettors use the polls and the media as a guide to for an opinion on a wager and the end result is value…..not a little value but in many instances more than you will ever find in sports betting.

I started out with political betting at the poker tables where I would make political wagers with the players. After winning almost every wager, I found it difficult to find any more takers:) So I left it alone for a while, but now political wagering is becoming mainstream, with line put out at many books. In addition, there are sites like predictit.org where they have lines on almost everything. Now there are some sharp bettors on the site but for the most part, what you get is what you find at the poker tables:) So I am back in the game.

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 43/57 -4 Pts

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 78/22 – 2 Pts ( I expect this to happen)

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 14/86 +1 Pt (This is the one to watch) Staying at the lows

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 85/15 +4 Pts (Another one to watch) A new high

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 44/56 + 2 Pts
Warren: 10/90 – 4 Pts
Biden: 14/76 No Change
Buttigieg 13/86 No Change
Sanders 10/90 No Change
Bloomberg 7/93 -1 Pt
Clinton 4/97 No Change

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 31/69 -9 Pts I laid 38/62

I planned on selling This wager with a 10% to 20% gain after the IG report hits or the Durham report hits. That should send this higher. But the media is pounding Rudy so it looks like I will be in this one longer then I expected. I still think this is an excellent wager getting almost 5 to 2 at this point.

There will be a lot happening between now and Dec 9th when the IG report hits. The spin will be 24/7, most if not all will be misleading or false. The House will be back in session this week with both the Schiff and Nadler pressing full speed ahead. Then Dec 9th the IG report and Dec 11th Horowitz will testify in the Senate. That may well be a game-changer. We will see:)

Then of course there is Durham, the silent prosecutor who now has a grand jury.

It’s still not too late to join us as we are in the middle stages of the NFL and College football with college hoops just beginning. In addition, the NBA first-half wagers have been on fire, something like a 6-0 run:) All subscriptions have a 3-day free trial. Just go to the PayPal drop-down menu on this site and choose the monthly option. Hope to see you join us!

Good Luck Today:)

RickJ

http://rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

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Markets off slightly, What is reality, Macron and Russia, Macron and the DNC, checks and balances, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Friday morning

Notice how quiet things are when Congress is not in session:) Well, they are back next week, and the chaos will continue. Next week Nadler goes into action. And Surprise, Schiff is not ending his investigation.

So what does this mean for the markets? So far the markets except for a few brief scares have not taken the House seriously. Not because they do not think there will be an impeachment, but because there is little to no chance of removal in the Senate.

There will still be some scares as the media exaggerates, and makes up stories. But overall, unless the Senate shifts on this issue, the market overall is solid. If the Senate shifts, except a downdraft. And if there is any uncertainty at all in the Senate of the result, expect a plunge in the markets.

So watch the odds, as they will reflect reality more than what the media is telling you. The media at this point is just propaganda. I know, it’s a tough pill to swallow. But it is what it is. I have learned long ago, that it is important to recognize reality. If you do not, you will be in store for some painful surprises.

This morning the markets are off about 1/5% an hour before the open. TLT slightly green, Crude slightly red, and Vix.x +5%.

A slightly negative pre-market. Today will be a low volume day with an early close. So, I doubt I will be making any trades this morning. On Friday I exited several swing trades with nice profits. I 1/2 of another trade. And I still have a full swing position on with a nice loss:(

On the International front Macron came out with an interesting statement over the weekend. He announced Russia and China essentially were not threats, but friends. It is interesting for a number of reasons. 1. Nato was established to protect the members from Russian aggression. 2. Nato is a high-cost proposition for the US with many members taking advantage of the US 3. I have yet to hear a liberal in the US say a word about Macron’s statement.

#3 is the most interesting as it highlights, to me anyway, the complete absurdity of the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax. A hoax started by the Democrats to remove a sitting President. And I have no doubt with a little help from establishment Republicans. I assure you when this madness subsides, the left will be back in pro-Russia mode. Which leads us to the new quid pro quo hoax. All manufactured by the DNC with the help of a rule change, and a fake whistleblower. All done because they want endless investigations. The special counsel finished at a cost of 40 million over two years. But, they had to manufacture something else to continue the hoax.

And they did. That is what you are seeing now, just another manufactured hoax. Even assuming the worst case, there is no quid pro quo. A sitting President is well within his authority to demand investigations into corrupt activities by US officials before releasing funds. It matters not whether the official is running for office. That is a red herring. Although interestingly it did not stop them when they began spying on the Trump campaign. Nor did it stop them when manufacturing the fake dossier.

What bothers me most about all of this is not what is being done. I expect no less from our politicians. But, the fact that there are no checks and balances to prevent this from happening is the problem. The US system is supposed to be built upon checks and balances. And so we learn, in reality, there are none. There is that word again “Reality”. It is an interesting concept, best to grasp it as it is as important as ever to now have a firm grasp on it. No checks and balances. A scary thought.

Ok enough for this morning, let’s take a look at the political odds and see what has changed since my last post early in the week:

Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 45/55 +1 Pt

Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 79/21 No Change ( I expect this to happen)

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 13/87 -1 Pt (This is the one to watch)

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 80/20 -1 Pt (Another one to watch)

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 44/56 + 2 Pts
Warren: 10/90 -4 Pts
Biden: 14/86 +1 Pt
Buttigieg 13/86 No Change
Sanders 11/89 -1 Pt
Bloomberg 8/92 – 2 Pts
Clinton 4/96 +1 Pt

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 30/70 -4 Pts I laid 38/62

The odds have increased quite a bit on Indictment. At getting 7 to 2 this is a substantial overlay. The media is driving this line with its narrative.

I plan on selling This wager with a 10% to 20% gain after the IG report hits or the Durham report hits. That should send this higher. Although, this may well end up being a longer-term wager than I thought.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Have a great day trading:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

Political Odds Updates

9/25/17

Tomorrow is the Alabama special election.  When the line came out at 2 to 1 in favor of strange I had mentioned I thought they had the wrong favorite and estimated the line to be closer to 4 to 1 in favor of Moore.

This morning just a day before the election Moore is now a 6 to 1 favorite. And that might be too low.

This is in spite of McConnell pouring millions into the race.

This race should set the tone for establishment republicans vs Trumpers (for lack of a better word)

My theory is that in 2018 it will be the Trumpers that gain rather than the Dems. The big losers will be the establishment Republicans. The mood is sour among the voters. Even more so when Trump got elected.

If Moore does trounce Strange then the numbers on all establishment Republicans who are being primaried are way too high.

Flake was a favorite when the line opened and he is now a 3 to 2 dog. But the primary my guess is he will be closer to a 4 to 1 or even 6 to 1 dog.

Heller the same.

If you’re looking for a long shot, take a look at Ryan. Ryan is a 5 1/2 to 1 favorite. Take the odds. By the primary, it will be no higher than 3 to 1. And if things really go wrong for Ryan closer to even money.

Do not underestimate the anti-establishment mood in the Country.

Another one to look at is whether the Dems will take control of the house. The odds right now slightly favor the Republicans.

In a normal off-year election the party not in control picks up at least 25 to 30 seats.  However, my guess is this will be far from a normal election off year.

I view the odds more like 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. A nice overlay here.

One more that looks good to me is which party will win the White House in 2020. The odds are 55 to 45 in favor of the Democrats. I think they have the wrong favorite here. I put it at 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans at the very least.

Now a lot can happen between now and 2020. But right now It looks like they have the wrong favorite here.

These odds in no way reflect my personal opinions on any issues. I am fortunate enough not to be burdened with any dogmatic ideology. I am purely an issue-driven person. I find myself on occasion on either side depending on the issue.

Now the more interesting question is whether the establishment Republicans will take heed after Strange gets trounced. Most likely not is my guess. They will go down with the establishment ship.

By 2020 McConnell will not be leading the Senate and Ryan if he survives will not be leading the house.

Let’s see how close I come:)

 

9/12/17

Some changes in the political odds since I have posted last:

Moore has moved to a 5.5 to 1 favorite over strange. No surprise to me and I doubt Strange will even get close even with McConnell’s backing.

Both Heller and Flake are now 2 to 1 dogs to win the primary. These should keep going down and by the primary, I suspect closer to 5 to 1 now on each against them winning.

The Republicans have moved to being a slight favorite 106 to 100 to win the house in 2018. Should be closer to 2 to 1 by election day.

Ryan is now 6 to 1 to win the Primary. The Anti establishment movement has not affected this line yet. I believe it will with a good chance Ryan goes the way or Eric Cantor.

A new line looks attractive here. The odds are 101 to 100 that Menendez gets convicted this year. The only risk I can see is if the trial goes past year end or there is a mistrial. Otherwise, I see the odds of a conviction closer to 10 to 1.

I have not been following the speed in which the trial will proceed so that would need to be determined before a wager on it. But it’s rare to see this type of trial go longer than a month once it has begun.

The lines are moving along with my expectations of the Non-Establishment Republicans getting the benefit of the political chaos that has consumed U.S. politics.

We will get a hint of this on September 26th.

Rick

 

 

 

 

 

9/6/17

Not much activity since I last posted. Moore is moving back to over 3 to 1 favorite in the Alabama special election. I had predicted 4 to 1 even when he was a dog but now I am thinking more like 6 to 1. I do not see much chance of Strange beating him.

Flake is hanging around at a 3 to 2 dog in the Arizona primary. This is another I think is way off. I had predicted 5 to 1 against and I think that is giving him the benefit of the doubt. By the primary, my guess is he will be at least a 5 to 1 dog.

Ryan is a 6.5 to 1 favorite in the Wisconsin Primary. I had put him at around 3 to 1 and by the primary, he might even be less than that.

There is a new matchup posted on Rosenstein. He is a 6 to 1 favorite to be deputy AG on 12/31st. This, in my opinion, is contingent as to when and how the Special Counsel wraps up. If Trump gets past the special counsel threat with it being behind him, my guess is Sessions and Rosenstein will be shown the door.

Now he might wait until after the 2018 elections but that would be a bit of a gamble. So this is a line that is hard to evaluate as its contingent on many variables. All of which I would not hazard a guess on.

Things will be clearer on this soon is my guess.

One I like a lot now is Heller to lose the NV Primary. He is a 2 to 1 favorite to win it and my thought is he should be a 3 to 1 dog. But the primary it would not surprise me to see the odds switched on this one.

That should bring you up to date on these. The first that is coming up is Moore vs Strange. That should give the first clue as to how bad the Republican establishment is going to get hit in the primaries. My feeling is it will be brutal.

Rick

 

 

8/31/17

A few changes in the odds since my last post. Moore has changed from 4 to 1 to 7 to 3. One thing to note about these lines is that the liquidity is so small that any size wager will move the lines. 4 to 1 is still my prediction as to the proper line in favor of Moore.

Kasich has moved down to 5 to 4 favorite to run in 2020. I have not changed my opinion as to it being 5 to 2. If he does decide to run and its Kasich vs Trump in the Primary I put Trump as a 5 to 1 favorite over Kasich. That might even be a bit on the low side.

Control of the House has moved to even money now from 5 to 4. My prediction is control of house 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans.

Flake is still a 6 to 4 dog to win the Az primary. This is one of the best values Ii see on the political odds screen. I view him as at least a 5 to 1 dog.  I commented on this when Flake was a 2 to 1 favorite!

The 2nd best is Ryan in the primary. Ryan is staying steady at 5 to 1 favorite. The line was 7.5 to 1 when I put out the play. I view the odds at no more than 3 to 1. And I would not be surprised to see the line close to 2 to 1 by the primary.

My view is that Establishment Republicans are going to get crushed in 2018. However not by the Dems but by nonestablishment Republicans.  Nothing has changed in the way the electorate views Congress except that their view is worse than it was when Trump was elected if that is possible.

Congress has been blind to this and by the time they wake up if ever, it will be too late. From the Russia investigation to not condemning Antifa the mistakes keep piling up. And importantly the people’s business has been thrown aside for partisan politics by both parties.

I do not see this changing. It appears to me it is only going to get worse as both Ryan and McConnell now are going out of their way to speak out against Trump. In addition, Trump has learned that appeasement is not the right course with Congress. He has now chosen a path of direct confrontation.

That leads me to Trump’s agenda. We saw what happened to health care. I expect a similar fate on tax cuts, immigration, debt ceiling and the wall. Congress as I see it will do whatever they can to make sure Trump has not delivered on his major campaign promises. As McCain said after casting the deciding vote on the Health care bill. “Let’s see Trump Make America great now!  Or something to that effect.

The mistake the Republican’s are making is thinking that their actions will hurt Trump. I doubt the base will go for it. My guess is as I have stated Establishment Republicans are going to take the hit in the primaries and in the General it will be the Dems.

I do not say this with glee however as the two party system is essential to provide a proper balance in a Democracy. So hopefully there will be moderates on both sides to provide some leadership before we turn into a one party system.

I will post updates every few days as I see the odds change and new situations posted.

If anyone has any questions regarding the odds of a certain event feel free to comment on this site or send me an email at [email protected]

 

 

 

8/29/17

Moore holding steady as a 4 to 1 favorite. It hit my target of 4 to 1 about 2 weeks ago after Moore being a dog a few months ago when I pointed out the EV on the wager.

Flake has now moved to a 2 to 1 dog. Moving nicely to my 5 to 1 target. I have very little doubt it will get there.

Ryan is now down to 5 to 1 moving closer to my 3 to 1 target. I suspect 3 to 1 might be too generous as by primary time he may be closer to even money.

Kasich has now moved to a 2 to 1 favorite to run in 2020. Getting close to my 5 to 2.

Nothing new lately on political odds that looks good to me. One that I would like to see as who is the first to go If Trump gets the Russia issue behind him, including the special counsel.

My guess is it will be Sessions. Although he might wait until after the 2018 primaries. I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

That’s it for this morning. Always interesting to evaluate political odds. Many variables to consider:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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