Political Odds - Rickj's Handicapping Picks
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Two new political wagers for 2020 posted!

Time to review the political odds and take a look at a new potential wager.

On Jan. 13th the odds was 5 to 2 that Trump would finish his first term. My suggestion back then was that laying the 5 to 2 had a lot of value and that the odds were closer to 100 to 1. Today looking at the odds they are now up to 5.5 to 1. I would still lay 5.5 to 1:)

On Feb 16th, I discussed the odds of Trump being impeached his first term. The odds at that time was 55 to 45 that he would not be impeached his first term. I suggested taking the 45 to 55 on impeachment had value. I put the odds at close to 2 to 1 he would be impeached. The odds have now moved to 3.5 to 1 he will not be impeached his first term. I would still take the 3.5 to 1. The Dems are left with nothing else at this point. I doubt they will be able to restrain themselves.

On  February 19th discussed the odds of McCabe being indicted by the end of the year. The odds was 2 to 1 against. I suggested taking the 2 to 1 as I felt the odds were closer to 2 to 1 in favor of indictment. This morning the odds sit at 45 to 55 against. Odds are still tightening. I would still take the odds of an indictment.


Biden running in 2020. The odds are about 6 to 1 that Biden will run. I would take the 6 to 1. I view it as 2 to 1 at best that he will run for a variety of reasons. I went through the reasons and suggested taking the 6 to 1. This morning the odds are now 5.5 to 1. I would still take 5.5 to 1 that he will not run. My prediction Odds now at least 2 to 1 against.

My last post discussed which party wins in 2020. The odds this morning are 58 to 43 in favor of the Dems taking the White House. Now, under normal circumstances, I would say take the odds knowing you have a great bet.

However, there are many variables at play that are very difficult to quantify. I say that because there are intangibles at work.

  1. Voter fraud. It is massive. And unless the White House gets it under control, a runaway election may well be close
  2. Establishment republicans sabotaging Trump’s reelection. This is a certainty. Many were involved in this coup attempt. Many are working behind the scenes to undermine Trump. They are working overtime, trying to figure out a strategy to make sure he loses in 2020.
  3. My guess is they cannot win with a primary challenge. However, I expect an independent run, backed by never Trumpers and some establishment Republicans. Before its over people like Romney will be backing the independent. Ryan also.
  4. On the plus side for Trump is Trump. He knows everything and more of what I am discussing. He is most likely the best political strategist to come along in a very long time. So, if there is a way he will find it:)
  5. So the odds, right now I put them at 2 to 1 in favor of Trump. What should be at least 20 to 1 because of the intangibles I adjust it to 2 to 1. Never underestimate the corruption that still is active in the U.S.

The next odds that look to have some value to me is control of the house after 2020. Right now the odds are 2.5 to 1 in favor of the Dems keeping the house. That looks a bit high to me. My thoughts are its a tossup. The reason being its a presidential election year and the polls are way undervalued on Trump. Just as they were in 2016. If my assumption is true, I could see the Republicans winning the house back easily. But I put the odds at even money.

Now another wager I will be looking at in 2020 is fading every establishment Republican who has come out against Trump, in the primary. There will be a lot of wagers to make but when the smoke clears I think you will have a nice profit. Do not cherry pick. Just bet them all. And I would also include a fade of Graham and McConnell to that list. You will be getting nice prices in the primary, So you will not have to even hit 50% to make money. The anti-establishment bias will do a lot of establishment Republicans in if they get primary challenges.

As always, I give the following Caveat. I am a Trump supporter. Not because of any particular ideology but because it’s my opinion he is the best person for the Country. I am not burdened by any particular ideology and am issue-driven. So I see things a bit differently than most. More as an outsider looking into the chaos that has evolved. And as I have always said, when there is chaos there is value:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

Skype : riccja

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What are the odds of Trump being reelected in 2020? My observations and prediction

Time to review some of the political odds I have mentioned and see where they are since my posts:


On Jan. 13th the odds was 5 to 2 that Trump would finish his first term. My suggestion back then was that laying the 5 to 2 had a lot of value, and that the odds were closer to 100 to 1. Today looking at the odds they are now up to 7 to 1. I would still lay 7 to 1:)

On Feb 16th, I discussed the odds of Trump being impeached his first term. The odds at that time was 55 to 45 that he would not be impeached his first term. I suggested taking the 45 to 55 on impeachment had value. I put the odds at close to 2 to 1 he would be impeached. The odds have now moved to 7 to 1 he will not be impeached his first term. I would still take the 7 to 1. I just do not think they can hold off the base.

On  February 19th discussed the odds of McCabe being indicted by the end of the year. The odds was 2 to 1 against. I suggested taking the 2 to 1 as I felt the odds were closer to 2 to 1 in favor of indictment. This morning the odds sit at 3 to 2 against. Odds are heading down:)

Finally two weeks ago
Biden running in 2020. The odds are about 6 to 1 that Biden will run. I would take the 6 to 1. I view it as 2 to 1 at best that he will run for a variety of reasons. I went through the reasons and suggested taking the 6 to 1. This morning the odds are now down to 2 to 1. Its a closer call, but I would still take 2 to 1 that he will not run. My prediction Odds now at least 2 to 1 against.

The next odds I want to take a look at is which party wins in 2020. The odds this morning are 58 to 44 in favor of the Dems taking the White House. Now, under normal circumstances I would say take the odds knowing you have a great bet.

However, there are many variables at play that are very difficult to quantify. I say that because there are intangibles at work.

  1. Voter fraud. It is massive. And unless the White House gets it under control, a runaway election may well be close
  2. Establishment republicans sabotaging Trump’s reelection. This is a certainty. Many were involved in this coup attempt. Many are working behind the scenes to undermine Trump. They are working overtime, trying to figure out a strategy to make sure he loses in 2020.
  3. My guess is they cannot win with a primary challenge. However, I expect an independent run, backed by never Trumpers and some establishment Republicans. Before its over people like Romney will be backing the independent. Ryan also.
  4. On the plus side for Trump is Trump. He knows everything and more of what I am discussing. He is most likely the best political strategist to come along in a very long time. So, if there is a way he will find it:)
  5. So the odds, right now I put them at 2 to 1 in favor of Trump. What should be at least 20 to 1 because of the intangibles I adjust it to 2 to 1. Never underestimate the corruption that still is active in the U.S.

As always, I give the following Caveat. I am a Trump supporter. Not because of any particular ideology but because its my opinion he is the best person for the Country. I am not burdened by any particular ideology and am issue driven. So I see things a bit differently then most. More as an outsider looking into the chaos that has evolved. And as I have always said, when there is chaos there is value:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

Skype : riccja

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A review of some political odds, and a new proposition

With College Hoop Conference Tournaments winding down for the NCAA Tournament, this is a rare Saturday morning I have some time to take a look at some political odds.

First lets go over my last three posts:

On Jan. 13th the odds was 5 to 2 that Trump would finish his first term. My suggestion back then was that laying the 5 to 2 had a lot of value, and that the odds were closer to 100 to 1. Today looking at the odds they are now up to almost 4 to 1. It will be much higher after the Mueller report.

On Feb 16th, I discussed the odds of Trump being impeached his first term. The odds at that time was 55 to 45 that he would not be impeached his first term. I suggested taking the 45 to 55 on impeachment had value. I put the odds at close to 2 to 1 he would be impeached. The odds have now moved to 3 to 1 he will not be impeached his first term.

So the odds have moved sharply the other way. I would still take the 3 to 1. But as I pointed out the value on this bet is far less than the first one we discussed.

My last post discussed on February 19th was regarding the odds of McCabe being indicted by the end of the year. The odds was 2 to 1 against. I sugested taking the 2 to 1 as I felt the odds were closer to 2 to 1 in favor of indictment. This morning the odds sit just under 2 to 1 against. I still think this has excellent value for the reasons in the article.

Now this morning looking over the political odds I see one that to me looks like it has some value. It involves Biden running in 2020. The odds are about 6 to 1 that Biden will run. I would take the 6 to 1. I view it as 2 to 1 at best that he will run for a variety of reasons.

First, I do not think he has the desire to run. From all I see he does not have the will to put in the intense effort that will be needed. Second, Biden has a lot of baggage that he has escaped. Running for President will bring to light a lot of this baggage, both by his primary opponents and in the General if he gets that far. Biden, regardless of what you think about him is politically savvy. He knows his time is long past. He cannot get the base. And that brings me to number 3. The base has no taste for Biden. An older white male, who is left center. Not a chance he gets accepted with open arms.

So take the six to 1 and bet on Biden to not go off the deep end and throw his hat in the ring. It would be out of character for him to do that.

As always, I give the following Caveat. I am a Trump supporter. Not because of any particular ideology but because its my opinion he is the best person for the Country. I am not burdened by any particular ideology and am issue driven. So I see things a bit differently then most. More as an outsider looking into the chaos that has evolved. And as I have always said, when there is chaos there is value:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

Skype : riccja

Political Odds Updates

9/25/17

Tomorrow is the Alabama special election.  When the line came out at 2 to 1 in favor of strange I had mentioned I thought they had the wrong favorite and estimated the line to be closer to 4 to 1 in favor of Moore.

This morning just a day before the election Moore is now a 6 to 1 favorite. And that might be too low.

This is in spite of McConnell pouring millions into the race.

This race should set the tone for establishment republicans vs Trumpers (for lack of a better word)

My theory is that in 2018 it will be the Trumpers that gain rather than the Dems. The big losers will be the establishment Republicans. The mood is sour among the voters. Even more so when Trump got elected.

If Moore does trounce Strange then the numbers on all establishment Republicans who are being primaried are way too high.

Flake was a favorite when the line opened and he is now a 3 to 2 dog. But the primary my guess is he will be closer to a 4 to 1 or even 6 to 1 dog.

Heller the same.

If you’re looking for a long shot, take a look at Ryan. Ryan is a 5 1/2 to 1 favorite. Take the odds. By the primary, it will be no higher than 3 to 1. And if things really go wrong for Ryan closer to even money.

Do not underestimate the anti-establishment mood in the Country.

Another one to look at is whether the Dems will take control of the house. The odds right now slightly favor the Republicans.

In a normal off-year election the party not in control picks up at least 25 to 30 seats.  However, my guess is this will be far from a normal election off year.

I view the odds more like 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. A nice overlay here.

One more that looks good to me is which party will win the White House in 2020. The odds are 55 to 45 in favor of the Democrats. I think they have the wrong favorite here. I put it at 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans at the very least.

Now a lot can happen between now and 2020. But right now It looks like they have the wrong favorite here.

These odds in no way reflect my personal opinions on any issues. I am fortunate enough not to be burdened with any dogmatic ideology. I am purely an issue-driven person. I find myself on occasion on either side depending on the issue.

Now the more interesting question is whether the establishment Republicans will take heed after Strange gets trounced. Most likely not is my guess. They will go down with the establishment ship.

By 2020 McConnell will not be leading the Senate and Ryan if he survives will not be leading the house.

Let’s see how close I come:)

 

9/12/17

Some changes in the political odds since I have posted last:

Moore has moved to a 5.5 to 1 favorite over strange. No surprise to me and I doubt Strange will even get close even with McConnell’s backing.

Both Heller and Flake are now 2 to 1 dogs to win the primary. These should keep going down and by the primary, I suspect closer to 5 to 1 now on each against them winning.

The Republicans have moved to being a slight favorite 106 to 100 to win the house in 2018. Should be closer to 2 to 1 by election day.

Ryan is now 6 to 1 to win the Primary. The Anti establishment movement has not affected this line yet. I believe it will with a good chance Ryan goes the way or Eric Cantor.

A new line looks attractive here. The odds are 101 to 100 that Menendez gets convicted this year. The only risk I can see is if the trial goes past year end or there is a mistrial. Otherwise, I see the odds of a conviction closer to 10 to 1.

I have not been following the speed in which the trial will proceed so that would need to be determined before a wager on it. But it’s rare to see this type of trial go longer than a month once it has begun.

The lines are moving along with my expectations of the Non-Establishment Republicans getting the benefit of the political chaos that has consumed U.S. politics.

We will get a hint of this on September 26th.

Rick

 

 

 

 

 

9/6/17

Not much activity since I last posted. Moore is moving back to over 3 to 1 favorite in the Alabama special election. I had predicted 4 to 1 even when he was a dog but now I am thinking more like 6 to 1. I do not see much chance of Strange beating him.

Flake is hanging around at a 3 to 2 dog in the Arizona primary. This is another I think is way off. I had predicted 5 to 1 against and I think that is giving him the benefit of the doubt. By the primary, my guess is he will be at least a 5 to 1 dog.

Ryan is a 6.5 to 1 favorite in the Wisconsin Primary. I had put him at around 3 to 1 and by the primary, he might even be less than that.

There is a new matchup posted on Rosenstein. He is a 6 to 1 favorite to be deputy AG on 12/31st. This, in my opinion, is contingent as to when and how the Special Counsel wraps up. If Trump gets past the special counsel threat with it being behind him, my guess is Sessions and Rosenstein will be shown the door.

Now he might wait until after the 2018 elections but that would be a bit of a gamble. So this is a line that is hard to evaluate as its contingent on many variables. All of which I would not hazard a guess on.

Things will be clearer on this soon is my guess.

One I like a lot now is Heller to lose the NV Primary. He is a 2 to 1 favorite to win it and my thought is he should be a 3 to 1 dog. But the primary it would not surprise me to see the odds switched on this one.

That should bring you up to date on these. The first that is coming up is Moore vs Strange. That should give the first clue as to how bad the Republican establishment is going to get hit in the primaries. My feeling is it will be brutal.

Rick

 

 

8/31/17

A few changes in the odds since my last post. Moore has changed from 4 to 1 to 7 to 3. One thing to note about these lines is that the liquidity is so small that any size wager will move the lines. 4 to 1 is still my prediction as to the proper line in favor of Moore.

Kasich has moved down to 5 to 4 favorite to run in 2020. I have not changed my opinion as to it being 5 to 2. If he does decide to run and its Kasich vs Trump in the Primary I put Trump as a 5 to 1 favorite over Kasich. That might even be a bit on the low side.

Control of the House has moved to even money now from 5 to 4. My prediction is control of house 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans.

Flake is still a 6 to 4 dog to win the Az primary. This is one of the best values Ii see on the political odds screen. I view him as at least a 5 to 1 dog.  I commented on this when Flake was a 2 to 1 favorite!

The 2nd best is Ryan in the primary. Ryan is staying steady at 5 to 1 favorite. The line was 7.5 to 1 when I put out the play. I view the odds at no more than 3 to 1. And I would not be surprised to see the line close to 2 to 1 by the primary.

My view is that Establishment Republicans are going to get crushed in 2018. However not by the Dems but by nonestablishment Republicans.  Nothing has changed in the way the electorate views Congress except that their view is worse than it was when Trump was elected if that is possible.

Congress has been blind to this and by the time they wake up if ever, it will be too late. From the Russia investigation to not condemning Antifa the mistakes keep piling up. And importantly the people’s business has been thrown aside for partisan politics by both parties.

I do not see this changing. It appears to me it is only going to get worse as both Ryan and McConnell now are going out of their way to speak out against Trump. In addition, Trump has learned that appeasement is not the right course with Congress. He has now chosen a path of direct confrontation.

That leads me to Trump’s agenda. We saw what happened to health care. I expect a similar fate on tax cuts, immigration, debt ceiling and the wall. Congress as I see it will do whatever they can to make sure Trump has not delivered on his major campaign promises. As McCain said after casting the deciding vote on the Health care bill. “Let’s see Trump Make America great now!  Or something to that effect.

The mistake the Republican’s are making is thinking that their actions will hurt Trump. I doubt the base will go for it. My guess is as I have stated Establishment Republicans are going to take the hit in the primaries and in the General it will be the Dems.

I do not say this with glee however as the two party system is essential to provide a proper balance in a Democracy. So hopefully there will be moderates on both sides to provide some leadership before we turn into a one party system.

I will post updates every few days as I see the odds change and new situations posted.

If anyone has any questions regarding the odds of a certain event feel free to comment on this site or send me an email at [email protected]

 

 

 

8/29/17

Moore holding steady as a 4 to 1 favorite. It hit my target of 4 to 1 about 2 weeks ago after Moore being a dog a few months ago when I pointed out the EV on the wager.

Flake has now moved to a 2 to 1 dog. Moving nicely to my 5 to 1 target. I have very little doubt it will get there.

Ryan is now down to 5 to 1 moving closer to my 3 to 1 target. I suspect 3 to 1 might be too generous as by primary time he may be closer to even money.

Kasich has now moved to a 2 to 1 favorite to run in 2020. Getting close to my 5 to 2.

Nothing new lately on political odds that looks good to me. One that I would like to see as who is the first to go If Trump gets the Russia issue behind him, including the special counsel.

My guess is it will be Sessions. Although he might wait until after the 2018 primaries. I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

That’s it for this morning. Always interesting to evaluate political odds. Many variables to consider:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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