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Update on Kavanaugh political odds and comments now posted

I usually do not give a Monday update on political odds but there has been quite a shift on the Kavanaugh confirmation odds.
 
In my last two updates, I indicated that one of the best wagers around right now in the political arena was taking 10 to 1 that Kavanaugh would not be confirmed.
 
I think I said, you are hearing it from me first:)
 
Well, not to gloat but the odds are down to 3 to 2 and I expect them to go lower. Before this is over I expect Kavanaugh to be a dog on confirmation. And I expect that Kavanaugh will not be confirmed.
 
He will either withdraw or he will not get enough votes in the Senate.
 
If I had to put a price on it this morning, I would put the line out at 5 to 1 the confirmation goes down. And I think that may be a bit low.
 
Already Flake and Corker have expressed misgivings. My guess is neither, being never Trumpers, were looking for any excuse to vote against confirming Kavanaugh.
 
Add Collins and Murkowski to the mix and I do not see the votes being there. This gives them a reason to vote no. One they were looking for to begin with.
 
If you are still looking for a good wager take the 3 to 2. At this point, there is little chance he is going to be confirmed.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds
Skype: riccja
 
 
 
 
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Is taking Kavanaugh at 8 to 1 against being confirmed a good wager? My thoughts are posted

Sunday political odds update for 08/26/18
 
Not much has changed in the last 3 weeks on the odds for control of the House and Senate. My feeling is there is still no value on either side of the wagers.
 
The Republicans would have to buck a long historical trend regarding midterm elections where the opposing party typically gains seats.
 
At almost 2 to 1 it might be a bit high, but not enough to consider a wager. At least at this time.
 
The Ohio Special election has come and gone and it was a nailbiter. They finally announced the Republican as the winner but there will be a matchup in a few months.
 
The odds again are 3 to 2 in favor of the Republican. That seems about right.
 
On Rosenstein being impeached the odds have moved quite a bit. from 9 to 2 against to now 14 to 1 against. No value here except perhaps on laying the 14 to 1.
 
Trump being impeached in his first term has stayed steady at around 3 to 2 against. I am not quite certain if this means just the house or it means also conviction in the Senate. If it both bodies I would easily lay the 3 to 2. If only the House, I would be inclined to take the 3 to 2.
 
Another big mover is who will be the next cabinet member to leave. 3 weeks ago you could get 4 to 1 on Sessions being the next Cabinet member to leave. Now the odds are 55 to 45 against. At this point, I would take the 45 to 55. Sessions could be gone any time now as I view it.
 
That brings me to one of the favorite wagers I see. Last time I posted you could get 5 to 1 against Kavanaugh being confirmed by 10/31. The odds have now moved to 8.5 to 1. Cynic that I am I can see some problems as we get closer to the vote.
 
There are too many vehement anti Trumpers in the Republican Senate to think they will get 50 votes without a hitch. Now, if the McCain seat gets filled right away that will give Kavanaugh some leeway. But even then, I expect a hitch or 2 before the vote.
 
Remember, if an indictment or subpoena of the President heads up to the Supreme Court, at the moment its a 4-4 split. So a tie would confirm the lower court ruling. There are just too many Republicans that want to see Trump gone to think they are not mulling this over.
 
And make no mistake, if the Republican cannot round up 50 votes they will not get 1 Democratic vote.
 
I would not be surprised to see this number get closer to 3 to 1 or even 2 to 1 as we approach the vote.
 
My other favorite wager right now is fading all Dems n States that Trump won. You most likely will not win them all but you should comfortably show a profit on these.
 
Forget the polls and use common sense. One of my favorite pollsters has stated that any poll involving Trump you can comfortably add 10 points to it. That sounds a bit conservative to me:)
 
There is a new line that just came out that looks attractive to me. You can get 9 to 1 if you think a 2nd special counsel will be appointed by year end. That looks very high to me for several reasons.
 
First Sessions is now under a lot of pressure to do something, but I do not anticipate he will act. If he is removed almost with a certainty one of the first acts of the new AG will be to appoint a 2nd special counsel. Now, with this, the timing is the key. And by year end it might be cutting it short.
 
But you’re getting 9 to 1. Not a bad price for something you can foresee happening.
 
That is my update for this week.
 
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingicks.com/politicalodds
Skype: riccja
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Political odds update for 08/05/18 now posted

My Sunday Political Odds Update for 08/05/18
 
Not much has changed for the House and Senate control. The Senate has moved from 5 to 2 to almost 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans keeping control. The House has stayed steady at 3 to 2 in favor of the Dems regaining control.
 
As far as value, I do not see anything here worth wagering on.
 
The Ohio special election this Tuesday has the Republican a 3 to 2 favorite to win. That looks about right to me.
 
Last week I mentioned that there was value in laying 9 to 2 that Rosenstein would not be impeached. The odds right now are almost 20 to 1 against impeachment of Rosenstein. The value is not gone from the wager.
 
The odds of Trump being impeached in his 1st term are 3 to 2 against. Which is interesting as the odds of the Dems taking back control of the House is 3 to 2 in favor.
 
I assume that if the Dems do take control of the House impeachment proceedings will be started.
 
But I do not see much value here.
 
Last week I thought there was value in taking 5 to 1 that Cavenaugh would not be confirmed. Well, the odds are now 7 to 1! I still thnk there is value here. I am still convinced that some last second maneuverings might derail his nomination. The reasons are the same as I stated in my last post.
 
Another interesting wager is you can get almost 4 to 1 that Sessions will be the next cabinet member to leave. A lot of this is contingent on when the Special Counsel wraps things up. But, my guess is that Sessions will be gone within a week after Mueller is finished.
 
So taking the 4 to 1 seems like a reasonable wager to me.
 
That is my update for this week. I still think the best wager right now is to fade every Democrat running in States that Trump carried in 2016. I cannot imagine not being on the plus side on that wager after the midterms.
 
RickJ
Rickj’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/politicalodds
Skype: riccja

Political Odds Updates

9/25/17

Tomorrow is the Alabama special election.  When the line came out at 2 to 1 in favor of strange I had mentioned I thought they had the wrong favorite and estimated the line to be closer to 4 to 1 in favor of Moore.

This morning just a day before the election Moore is now a 6 to 1 favorite. And that might be too low.

This is in spite of McConnell pouring millions into the race.

This race should set the tone for establishment republicans vs Trumpers (for lack of a better word)

My theory is that in 2018 it will be the Trumpers that gain rather than the Dems. The big losers will be the establishment Republicans. The mood is sour among the voters. Even more so when Trump got elected.

If Moore does trounce Strange then the numbers on all establishment Republicans who are being primaried are way too high.

Flake was a favorite when the line opened and he is now a 3 to 2 dog. But the primary my guess is he will be closer to a 4 to 1 or even 6 to 1 dog.

Heller the same.

If you’re looking for a long shot, take a look at Ryan. Ryan is a 5 1/2 to 1 favorite. Take the odds. By the primary, it will be no higher than 3 to 1. And if things really go wrong for Ryan closer to even money.

Do not underestimate the anti-establishment mood in the Country.

Another one to look at is whether the Dems will take control of the house. The odds right now slightly favor the Republicans.

In a normal off-year election the party not in control picks up at least 25 to 30 seats.  However, my guess is this will be far from a normal election off year.

I view the odds more like 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. A nice overlay here.

One more that looks good to me is which party will win the White House in 2020. The odds are 55 to 45 in favor of the Democrats. I think they have the wrong favorite here. I put it at 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans at the very least.

Now a lot can happen between now and 2020. But right now It looks like they have the wrong favorite here.

These odds in no way reflect my personal opinions on any issues. I am fortunate enough not to be burdened with any dogmatic ideology. I am purely an issue-driven person. I find myself on occasion on either side depending on the issue.

Now the more interesting question is whether the establishment Republicans will take heed after Strange gets trounced. Most likely not is my guess. They will go down with the establishment ship.

By 2020 McConnell will not be leading the Senate and Ryan if he survives will not be leading the house.

Let’s see how close I come:)

 

9/12/17

Some changes in the political odds since I have posted last:

Moore has moved to a 5.5 to 1 favorite over strange. No surprise to me and I doubt Strange will even get close even with McConnell’s backing.

Both Heller and Flake are now 2 to 1 dogs to win the primary. These should keep going down and by the primary, I suspect closer to 5 to 1 now on each against them winning.

The Republicans have moved to being a slight favorite 106 to 100 to win the house in 2018. Should be closer to 2 to 1 by election day.

Ryan is now 6 to 1 to win the Primary. The Anti establishment movement has not affected this line yet. I believe it will with a good chance Ryan goes the way or Eric Cantor.

A new line looks attractive here. The odds are 101 to 100 that Menendez gets convicted this year. The only risk I can see is if the trial goes past year end or there is a mistrial. Otherwise, I see the odds of a conviction closer to 10 to 1.

I have not been following the speed in which the trial will proceed so that would need to be determined before a wager on it. But it’s rare to see this type of trial go longer than a month once it has begun.

The lines are moving along with my expectations of the Non-Establishment Republicans getting the benefit of the political chaos that has consumed U.S. politics.

We will get a hint of this on September 26th.

Rick

 

 

 

 

 

9/6/17

Not much activity since I last posted. Moore is moving back to over 3 to 1 favorite in the Alabama special election. I had predicted 4 to 1 even when he was a dog but now I am thinking more like 6 to 1. I do not see much chance of Strange beating him.

Flake is hanging around at a 3 to 2 dog in the Arizona primary. This is another I think is way off. I had predicted 5 to 1 against and I think that is giving him the benefit of the doubt. By the primary, my guess is he will be at least a 5 to 1 dog.

Ryan is a 6.5 to 1 favorite in the Wisconsin Primary. I had put him at around 3 to 1 and by the primary, he might even be less than that.

There is a new matchup posted on Rosenstein. He is a 6 to 1 favorite to be deputy AG on 12/31st. This, in my opinion, is contingent as to when and how the Special Counsel wraps up. If Trump gets past the special counsel threat with it being behind him, my guess is Sessions and Rosenstein will be shown the door.

Now he might wait until after the 2018 elections but that would be a bit of a gamble. So this is a line that is hard to evaluate as its contingent on many variables. All of which I would not hazard a guess on.

Things will be clearer on this soon is my guess.

One I like a lot now is Heller to lose the NV Primary. He is a 2 to 1 favorite to win it and my thought is he should be a 3 to 1 dog. But the primary it would not surprise me to see the odds switched on this one.

That should bring you up to date on these. The first that is coming up is Moore vs Strange. That should give the first clue as to how bad the Republican establishment is going to get hit in the primaries. My feeling is it will be brutal.

Rick

 

 

8/31/17

A few changes in the odds since my last post. Moore has changed from 4 to 1 to 7 to 3. One thing to note about these lines is that the liquidity is so small that any size wager will move the lines. 4 to 1 is still my prediction as to the proper line in favor of Moore.

Kasich has moved down to 5 to 4 favorite to run in 2020. I have not changed my opinion as to it being 5 to 2. If he does decide to run and its Kasich vs Trump in the Primary I put Trump as a 5 to 1 favorite over Kasich. That might even be a bit on the low side.

Control of the House has moved to even money now from 5 to 4. My prediction is control of house 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans.

Flake is still a 6 to 4 dog to win the Az primary. This is one of the best values Ii see on the political odds screen. I view him as at least a 5 to 1 dog.  I commented on this when Flake was a 2 to 1 favorite!

The 2nd best is Ryan in the primary. Ryan is staying steady at 5 to 1 favorite. The line was 7.5 to 1 when I put out the play. I view the odds at no more than 3 to 1. And I would not be surprised to see the line close to 2 to 1 by the primary.

My view is that Establishment Republicans are going to get crushed in 2018. However not by the Dems but by nonestablishment Republicans.  Nothing has changed in the way the electorate views Congress except that their view is worse than it was when Trump was elected if that is possible.

Congress has been blind to this and by the time they wake up if ever, it will be too late. From the Russia investigation to not condemning Antifa the mistakes keep piling up. And importantly the people’s business has been thrown aside for partisan politics by both parties.

I do not see this changing. It appears to me it is only going to get worse as both Ryan and McConnell now are going out of their way to speak out against Trump. In addition, Trump has learned that appeasement is not the right course with Congress. He has now chosen a path of direct confrontation.

That leads me to Trump’s agenda. We saw what happened to health care. I expect a similar fate on tax cuts, immigration, debt ceiling and the wall. Congress as I see it will do whatever they can to make sure Trump has not delivered on his major campaign promises. As McCain said after casting the deciding vote on the Health care bill. “Let’s see Trump Make America great now!  Or something to that effect.

The mistake the Republican’s are making is thinking that their actions will hurt Trump. I doubt the base will go for it. My guess is as I have stated Establishment Republicans are going to take the hit in the primaries and in the General it will be the Dems.

I do not say this with glee however as the two party system is essential to provide a proper balance in a Democracy. So hopefully there will be moderates on both sides to provide some leadership before we turn into a one party system.

I will post updates every few days as I see the odds change and new situations posted.

If anyone has any questions regarding the odds of a certain event feel free to comment on this site or send me an email at [email protected]

 

 

 

8/29/17

Moore holding steady as a 4 to 1 favorite. It hit my target of 4 to 1 about 2 weeks ago after Moore being a dog a few months ago when I pointed out the EV on the wager.

Flake has now moved to a 2 to 1 dog. Moving nicely to my 5 to 1 target. I have very little doubt it will get there.

Ryan is now down to 5 to 1 moving closer to my 3 to 1 target. I suspect 3 to 1 might be too generous as by primary time he may be closer to even money.

Kasich has now moved to a 2 to 1 favorite to run in 2020. Getting close to my 5 to 2.

Nothing new lately on political odds that looks good to me. One that I would like to see as who is the first to go If Trump gets the Russia issue behind him, including the special counsel.

My guess is it will be Sessions. Although he might wait until after the 2018 primaries. I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

That’s it for this morning. Always interesting to evaluate political odds. Many variables to consider:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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