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My thoughts on conviction odds and a wager I took this morning, updated political lines.

A lot is changing rapidly on the political scene. After the IG report came out disclosing many serious abuses by the Obama FBI using the FISI courts, the chief justice Roberts appoints an Obama appointee to head the FISA court after Collier resigns.

This is about as bad a sign as you can get. Combine that with Wray thinking training manuals are going to correct things. The trend is toward business as usual.

Then we have the upcoming trial in the Senate. More and more Republican Senators are signing onto the idea that Witness’ will be called. In other words, before even seeing the Democrats case they have decided they are open to witness’. Can it get any worse than this? This is an open attempt to weaken the President.

Then we have Judge Roberts presiding over the trial. The same Judge Roberts that gave the thumbs up to Obama care, and has now put more of the same in the FISA court. Remember all these abuses came under his watch. My take is that Roberts is bent. I do not expect Trump to get a fair shake from Roberts in the Senate trial.

So the trend is for more political chaos. The more successful Trump is the more the establishment want to remove him. That is on both sides. I doubt this impeachment is over.

The odds last week were about 13 to 1 against conviction. The odds have moved to 11 to 1 against. This morning I took the 11 to 1. Not because I think he will be convicted. But because I think the drama the Republicans create will move the line to somewhere between 7 and 5 to 1. I plan on laying this wager off rather quickly with close to a 100% gain.

Now the risk is the Republicans do dismiss:) But considering they need 51 votes. It is rather unlikely.

The odds this morning:

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 09/91 Unchanged (This is the one to watch) Was at .07/.93
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 90/10 No Change (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs

Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having lost any edge they had a month ago. (If Trump is not at the head of the party the Republicans have virtually no chance of keeping the Presidency or the Senate, They will lose all 3)

Control of the House after 2020: Dems 72/28 -1 Pt ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet. A better wager will be to bet against every incumbent house member that voted to impeach in 2020 that reside in states that Trump carried. That will be around 30 wagers. You will probably get +odds on most on the open, and I cannot see losing over 50% with the potential over winning over 60% of them. This is probably the best wager that will come around in a long time. Except of course for the Netanyahu wager, I made 100% on a few months ago:)

That was a wager where very few understood how Israel elections worked. You were getting a nice price on a wager that had the wrong favorite.

Control of the Senate after 2020: 73/27 Republicans. +1 Pt

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 51/49 +4 Pts
Warren: 6/84 No Change
Biden: 22/78 -2 Pts
Buttigieg 7/83 No Change
Sanders 21/79 +3 Pts
Bloomberg 5/85 -1 Pt
Clinton 2/98 No Change

Watch the conviction odds every day to get an idea of where things are at. It is very unlikely they get the votes needed to convict. However, the Senate is a snakepit. Do not be surprised if this turns out closer then you think

Rick

RickJs Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com/political-odds

Skye: riccja

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Westgate NFL Contest week 17 picks, Westgate top and bottom 5, Lesson of the week, Updated political odds all posted

We are heading into Week 17 of the Westgate NFL Supercontest and I sit at 44-35-1 or 55.7%. The Tie give me a half-point, so I sit at 44.5. A long way from 60%:(. I went 3-1-1 last week and even with a 5-0 day today I would be out of the money.

In college football this week my bowl picks have been dreary.

This week I had Iowas State +3.5 (L), Memphis +6.5 (L), Miami -7(L). So an 0-3 week bringing my record in college football to 31-26-1 or 54.4%. That is a 4.2% ROI.

For NFL Plays last week we had Seattle U51(W), Cleveland U 49(W), Jets +3.5(w) Tenn +3.5 (L). That gave us a 3-1 week in the NFL last week for plays bringing the season to date to 22-18 or 55%. We got off to a slow start in the NFL but it has now overtaken college football this season.

Both are profitable, which has been typical over the years.

In the All Spread contest where I pick every game against the spread, I sit at 132-108-0 or 55%. That is an incredible number:) Beating college football plays and also tieing my Westgate record. If you beat every one of these you would be +13.2 Units:) I send these picks out to subscribers.

The lesson of the week:

I am going to again concentrate on Variance. We are in our worst downswing in a while, and it actually has not been that bad, it just seems worse then what it is. Whenever I go into a downswing I always recommend reading the must-read portion of this site. It will get your thinking right.

The downswings separate the professionals from the part-time bettors. The professionals expect downswings and have it built into their money management techniques. Myself, I view them as an academic amusement more than anything else.

I remember when I had sat down at a limit poker game and went through 4 racks in about an hour. I had had an incredible run of cards and lost with every hand. (you do not lose much money when you are not getting hands). The guy next to me, a good friend who had a similar mindset as mine when it comes to variance, looked at me and asked, “What is your downside limit”?

I asked him, what is the difference if you go through 10 racks in a session or in 4 weeks? If you are playing well and the game is good it is merely variance. He answered that he agreed, but said that after two racks he tends to lose his temper so he quits:)

That illustrates as best I can my mindset on gambling. If you have a positive EV, you weather the swings. If you cannot do that, then no need to even get started in this endeavor.

It is not for everyone, and few can handle day after day. I enjoy it otherwise I would not be doing it. My methods have withstood over 15 years of posting plays online. We have had our ups and downs but in the end, we end up on the plus side.

Your biggest enemy once you have a positive EV is yourself. You always have to fight human nature. That is what gets most. Human nature kicks in and finishes most off:)”

Now that might be the last on variance for awhile. But its the most important subject of all.

My picks for the Westgate this week are:

Houston +3.5
Chargers +9
Giants +4.5
Jets +1
Denver -3.5

Week 17 has a lot of different considerations then the first 15 weeks. Week 16 is sort of a transition week.

I will go over in detail each game today with subscribers a bit later.

In the Westgate Supercontest, the top 5 picks went 2-2-1 last week bringing its record to 41-36-2. This is an outperforming season for them this year, as typically they are hard-pressed to break even.

The top 5 this week is:

Giants
Tenn
Seattle
KC
Indy

I am with them on the Giants, fading them with Houston and the Chargers.

The bottom 5 this week are:

Jacksonville
Arizona
Carolina
Dallas
Chargers

I am on the charger in the Bottom 5.

Now let’s see how the political odds have changed this week:

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 9/91 -1 Pts (This is the one to watch) Staying at the lows.

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 90/10 No Change (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs

Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having lost any edge they had a month ago.

Control of the House after 2020: Dems 73/27 No Change ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet. A better wager will be to bet against every incumbent house member that voted to impeach in 2020 that reside in states that Trump carried. That will be around 30 wagers. You will probably get +odds on most on the open, and I cannot see losing over 50% with the potential over winning over 60% of them. This is probably the best wager that will come around in a long time. Except of course for the Netanyahu wager, I made 100% on a few months ago:)

That was a wager where very few understood how Israel elections worked. You were getting a nice price on a wager that had the wrong favorite.

Control of the Senate after 2020: 72/28 Republicans. No Change I would lay the 2 to 1 here but the overlay is not as great as I see it as in taking the odds on the House race.

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 47/53 -1 Pts
Warren: 6/84 No Change
Biden: 24/76 +1 Pts
Buttigieg 7/83 No Change
Sanders 18/84 +1 Pts
Bloomberg 4/86 -2 Pt
Clinton 2/98 No Change

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 38/62 -1 Pts I laid 38/62 ( My wager is right at where I bought into it. My plan to lay it off with a 20% quick gain is not working out so well) I think Durham will bring indictments soon, and that should give this wager a big boost. I plan on laying it off with a nice gain once that happens. Perhaps in the next month.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

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Westgate NFL Contest Picks week 16, Westgate top and bottom 5, Lesson of the week, Updated political odds all posted.

We are heading into week 16 of the Westgate NFL Supercontest and I sit at 42-34-1 with three games left today for week 16 Picks. That is 55.2 % picking five games each week. A solid showing but to cash you have to hit over 60%. Week 16 started out good with a win on the Rams and a tie on TB.

In College football, the bowl games have started and my first bowl pick was a loss with Alcorn St +3. They scored over 40 pts and still lost by 20:)

That brings College football season to date to 31-23-1 or 57.4%.

We had 1 NFL play Last week with Jacksonville +6.5 and it was a winner. Yesterday we had 2 NFL plays. Rams +7 a winner and the Rams Under was a loser. That brings my season to date record for plays in the NFL to 19-17.

Lesson of the week:

I am going to talk about Variance again. We lost 4.5 units the last 7 days or so, and I had some emails from a few subscribers that elicited some concern:) All I can say is -4.5 units is a blip. It is not even worth mentioning. When we get to a 20 to 30 unit downswing then you can proudly say you survived a real downswing. Those are the downswings that eliminate the bettors that have no money management skills or have unrealistic expectations.

I do not even think of downswings anymore, as I have learned its all part of the process. Now, few people are trained like I am in dealing with downswings. But 16 years playing full time at the limit poker tables in Vegas, and double that for sports betting daily and I can tell you about downswings:) In the end, it is all about probability theory. At least as long as you are a positive EV gambler. If you are not then it will not matter.

Make no mistake Variance is one of the most difficult battles successful gamblers have to fight. But once you get your mind right, you are on your way to winning it.

My Westgate NFL Contest Picks this week are:

TB +3 ( Push)
Rams +7 (Win)
Miami -1
Jets +3
Tenn +3

Last week the Westgate Top 5 went 3-2 bring their record to 39-34-2. That is a rarity for them as usually, the top 5 is something you want to fade. I assume this is a random event rather than a change of trend.

The Westgate top 5 this week are:

Buff(Lost)
Hou (Push)
KC
GB
Tenn

I faded two of the top 5 and am with them on Tenn.

The bottom 5 this week are:

Atl
Jets
Pit
Mia
Balt

Pit and the Jets play each other. I am on Miami

The updated political odds this week:

Trump was impeached last week, so that takes that wager off the table, but so far there is no indication the articles of impeachment will be sent to the Senate. There has been a lot of speculation on this decision. Almost too much to even consider at this early juncture. So, it’s best to just wait and see what Pelosi’s scheme is here, as I assure you this was not a random decision. They have something in mind.

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 10/90 +1 Pts (This is the one to watch) Staying at the lows. There is virtually no chance of a conviction in the Senate. There are a lot of rumors going around, but, ignore them and watch the odds. If they start moving, then perhaps you can give the rumors some credence. Otherwise its all spin.

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 89/11 +4 Pt (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs

Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having a very slight edge in the odds. This has been narrowing for some time now.

Control of the House after 2020: Dems 72/28 +2 Pts ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet.

Control of the Senate after 2020: 70/30 Republicans. +2 pts I would lay the 2 to 1 here but the overlay is not as great as I see it as in taking the odds on the House race.

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 47/53 +1 Pts ( A new High)
Warren: 6/94 -4 Pts
Biden: 22/78 +3 Pts
Buttigieg 7/83 – 2 Pts
Sanders 15/85 -1 Pts
Bloomberg 4/96 -1 Pt
Clinton 2/98 – 4 Pts

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 37/63 -3 Pts I laid 38/62 (Staying right around where I got into the wager.)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

Political Odds Updates

9/25/17

Tomorrow is the Alabama special election.  When the line came out at 2 to 1 in favor of strange I had mentioned I thought they had the wrong favorite and estimated the line to be closer to 4 to 1 in favor of Moore.

This morning just a day before the election Moore is now a 6 to 1 favorite. And that might be too low.

This is in spite of McConnell pouring millions into the race.

This race should set the tone for establishment republicans vs Trumpers (for lack of a better word)

My theory is that in 2018 it will be the Trumpers that gain rather than the Dems. The big losers will be the establishment Republicans. The mood is sour among the voters. Even more so when Trump got elected.

If Moore does trounce Strange then the numbers on all establishment Republicans who are being primaried are way too high.

Flake was a favorite when the line opened and he is now a 3 to 2 dog. But the primary my guess is he will be closer to a 4 to 1 or even 6 to 1 dog.

Heller the same.

If you’re looking for a long shot, take a look at Ryan. Ryan is a 5 1/2 to 1 favorite. Take the odds. By the primary, it will be no higher than 3 to 1. And if things really go wrong for Ryan closer to even money.

Do not underestimate the anti-establishment mood in the Country.

Another one to look at is whether the Dems will take control of the house. The odds right now slightly favor the Republicans.

In a normal off-year election the party not in control picks up at least 25 to 30 seats.  However, my guess is this will be far from a normal election off year.

I view the odds more like 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. A nice overlay here.

One more that looks good to me is which party will win the White House in 2020. The odds are 55 to 45 in favor of the Democrats. I think they have the wrong favorite here. I put it at 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans at the very least.

Now a lot can happen between now and 2020. But right now It looks like they have the wrong favorite here.

These odds in no way reflect my personal opinions on any issues. I am fortunate enough not to be burdened with any dogmatic ideology. I am purely an issue-driven person. I find myself on occasion on either side depending on the issue.

Now the more interesting question is whether the establishment Republicans will take heed after Strange gets trounced. Most likely not is my guess. They will go down with the establishment ship.

By 2020 McConnell will not be leading the Senate and Ryan if he survives will not be leading the house.

Let’s see how close I come:)

 

9/12/17

Some changes in the political odds since I have posted last:

Moore has moved to a 5.5 to 1 favorite over strange. No surprise to me and I doubt Strange will even get close even with McConnell’s backing.

Both Heller and Flake are now 2 to 1 dogs to win the primary. These should keep going down and by the primary, I suspect closer to 5 to 1 now on each against them winning.

The Republicans have moved to being a slight favorite 106 to 100 to win the house in 2018. Should be closer to 2 to 1 by election day.

Ryan is now 6 to 1 to win the Primary. The Anti establishment movement has not affected this line yet. I believe it will with a good chance Ryan goes the way or Eric Cantor.

A new line looks attractive here. The odds are 101 to 100 that Menendez gets convicted this year. The only risk I can see is if the trial goes past year end or there is a mistrial. Otherwise, I see the odds of a conviction closer to 10 to 1.

I have not been following the speed in which the trial will proceed so that would need to be determined before a wager on it. But it’s rare to see this type of trial go longer than a month once it has begun.

The lines are moving along with my expectations of the Non-Establishment Republicans getting the benefit of the political chaos that has consumed U.S. politics.

We will get a hint of this on September 26th.

Rick

 

 

 

 

 

9/6/17

Not much activity since I last posted. Moore is moving back to over 3 to 1 favorite in the Alabama special election. I had predicted 4 to 1 even when he was a dog but now I am thinking more like 6 to 1. I do not see much chance of Strange beating him.

Flake is hanging around at a 3 to 2 dog in the Arizona primary. This is another I think is way off. I had predicted 5 to 1 against and I think that is giving him the benefit of the doubt. By the primary, my guess is he will be at least a 5 to 1 dog.

Ryan is a 6.5 to 1 favorite in the Wisconsin Primary. I had put him at around 3 to 1 and by the primary, he might even be less than that.

There is a new matchup posted on Rosenstein. He is a 6 to 1 favorite to be deputy AG on 12/31st. This, in my opinion, is contingent as to when and how the Special Counsel wraps up. If Trump gets past the special counsel threat with it being behind him, my guess is Sessions and Rosenstein will be shown the door.

Now he might wait until after the 2018 elections but that would be a bit of a gamble. So this is a line that is hard to evaluate as its contingent on many variables. All of which I would not hazard a guess on.

Things will be clearer on this soon is my guess.

One I like a lot now is Heller to lose the NV Primary. He is a 2 to 1 favorite to win it and my thought is he should be a 3 to 1 dog. But the primary it would not surprise me to see the odds switched on this one.

That should bring you up to date on these. The first that is coming up is Moore vs Strange. That should give the first clue as to how bad the Republican establishment is going to get hit in the primaries. My feeling is it will be brutal.

Rick

 

 

8/31/17

A few changes in the odds since my last post. Moore has changed from 4 to 1 to 7 to 3. One thing to note about these lines is that the liquidity is so small that any size wager will move the lines. 4 to 1 is still my prediction as to the proper line in favor of Moore.

Kasich has moved down to 5 to 4 favorite to run in 2020. I have not changed my opinion as to it being 5 to 2. If he does decide to run and its Kasich vs Trump in the Primary I put Trump as a 5 to 1 favorite over Kasich. That might even be a bit on the low side.

Control of the House has moved to even money now from 5 to 4. My prediction is control of house 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans.

Flake is still a 6 to 4 dog to win the Az primary. This is one of the best values Ii see on the political odds screen. I view him as at least a 5 to 1 dog.  I commented on this when Flake was a 2 to 1 favorite!

The 2nd best is Ryan in the primary. Ryan is staying steady at 5 to 1 favorite. The line was 7.5 to 1 when I put out the play. I view the odds at no more than 3 to 1. And I would not be surprised to see the line close to 2 to 1 by the primary.

My view is that Establishment Republicans are going to get crushed in 2018. However not by the Dems but by nonestablishment Republicans.  Nothing has changed in the way the electorate views Congress except that their view is worse than it was when Trump was elected if that is possible.

Congress has been blind to this and by the time they wake up if ever, it will be too late. From the Russia investigation to not condemning Antifa the mistakes keep piling up. And importantly the people’s business has been thrown aside for partisan politics by both parties.

I do not see this changing. It appears to me it is only going to get worse as both Ryan and McConnell now are going out of their way to speak out against Trump. In addition, Trump has learned that appeasement is not the right course with Congress. He has now chosen a path of direct confrontation.

That leads me to Trump’s agenda. We saw what happened to health care. I expect a similar fate on tax cuts, immigration, debt ceiling and the wall. Congress as I see it will do whatever they can to make sure Trump has not delivered on his major campaign promises. As McCain said after casting the deciding vote on the Health care bill. “Let’s see Trump Make America great now!  Or something to that effect.

The mistake the Republican’s are making is thinking that their actions will hurt Trump. I doubt the base will go for it. My guess is as I have stated Establishment Republicans are going to take the hit in the primaries and in the General it will be the Dems.

I do not say this with glee however as the two party system is essential to provide a proper balance in a Democracy. So hopefully there will be moderates on both sides to provide some leadership before we turn into a one party system.

I will post updates every few days as I see the odds change and new situations posted.

If anyone has any questions regarding the odds of a certain event feel free to comment on this site or send me an email at [email protected]

 

 

 

8/29/17

Moore holding steady as a 4 to 1 favorite. It hit my target of 4 to 1 about 2 weeks ago after Moore being a dog a few months ago when I pointed out the EV on the wager.

Flake has now moved to a 2 to 1 dog. Moving nicely to my 5 to 1 target. I have very little doubt it will get there.

Ryan is now down to 5 to 1 moving closer to my 3 to 1 target. I suspect 3 to 1 might be too generous as by primary time he may be closer to even money.

Kasich has now moved to a 2 to 1 favorite to run in 2020. Getting close to my 5 to 2.

Nothing new lately on political odds that looks good to me. One that I would like to see as who is the first to go If Trump gets the Russia issue behind him, including the special counsel.

My guess is it will be Sessions. Although he might wait until after the 2018 primaries. I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

I would also like to see a line put out on establishment Republicans who opposed Trump vs non-establishment Republicans in the primaries.  I would put the 2nd as a 10 to 1 favorite to gain seats in the primaries.

That’s it for this morning. Always interesting to evaluate political odds. Many variables to consider:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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