Markets are slightly lower all just below the -.30% mark
vix.x is +2.65% @CL -.47% and TLT -.15%
This is a neutral – premarket environment , with the market this overbought short term it would not be hard to imagine at least some consolidation here
A buy signal triggered in the RSI as it crossed the 99% threshold. While some use this as a mean reversion indicator, its best to use for divergences and strength. Typically this buy signal means higher prices 14 days out.
We also have seasonality in our favor and the Fed
Policy on the other hand is a negative
Right now technicals, Fed and seasonality are winning out
The 15 min EMA charts are showing some life during the last 15 min, no doubt because of the 5:30 reports that came out.
Charts are included in the subscriber post
The 60 min charts are a bit more subdued however vix is now testing the 20 ema to the downside. That is the one to watch this morning
I mentioned earlier in the week that the QQQ/SPY chart was getting closer to a long trigger, it has widened is not a threat to trigger a long this week
Remember historically virtually all of the market gains have been made when this has been in buy mode
It is one of the most reliable indicators I have found for market bias
But again as with most indicators, it is easier to trade them from the long side then the short side
The 3 mo vix chart just keeps looking better and better
So obviously this is not the time to be shorting the markets regardless of your feelings on policy. As instrument rated pilots are taught “trust your instruments over your instincts” Many a pilot has flown their plane nose first into the ground not remembering this rule
I think a good approach would be, that until the fed starts tightening, shorts are not the way to go
And anyone that thinks the Fed is going to tighten into the 2022 midterms has not payed attention. Especially now that the Fed has been politicized like every other federal institution
The Conservatives should take a good hard long lesson from the Liberals on how it is done. You do not win by being the gentleman in the room.
You either fight by the rules your opponent sets or you lose. It is that simple
Of course it helps when politicians from the right are lining their pockets with special interest money at the expense of their constituents. The quote from the movie “Rainmaker” seems appropriate. “Every lawyer, at least once in every case, feels himself crossing a line that he doesn’t really mean to cross. It just happens, and if you cross it enough times it disappears forever. And then you’re nothing but another lawyer joke, just another shark in the dirty water.”
Grisham hit it right on the head. but here it applies to politicians.
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
9:00 Fed’s Waller: U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
10:00 Existing Home Sales
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
9:00 PM Fed’s Williams Speech
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
9:00 Fed’s Waller: U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
10:00 Existing Home Sales
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
9:00 PM Fed’s Williams Speech
More Fed speak today. I am still waiting for their insider trading lessons. That would be way more instructive then the crap they put out every day
The two reports this morning that most likely prompted the spike were the jobless claims and phily fed outlook
I have not looked at the numbers but I suspect jobless claims were down, which of course is an artificial number as it does not take into consideration the people out of the workforce…which is a huge number
Political entertainment is going to begin to get more lively as Trump is getting into the media network business
This should of course add immensely to the entertainment value of staying up on politics
The company went public and was up more then 50% to 15.00 per share
I do not think I would buy here. The reason is it will be under assault within a week
They have an app in the apple store, and I suspect their will be a lot of pressure to remove the app
Saying that if it survives the first 6 months, it will be a good investing opportunity at least in the short run. Trump will bring in subscribers from all over the world. The environment is perfect for this now.
The other question is do they have the ability to handle the large inflow of subscribers.
It will be massive
Both Gab and Gettr had a significant amount of problems both from the left, estab republicans, and internal structure. Gab was down for a few months.
Parler and gettr has been removed from the apple store
Also google from their play stores and amazon shut down their web hosting agreement with them
I expect the same assault on Trumps new media network
The launch is next month for invited guests, with a full rollout the first quarter of 2022
If you can avoid getting engulfed in the chaos , politics can be a rather amusing spectator sport:)
If you cannot avoid it, then it can be a rather tortuous experience.
The trick is to view it as an omniscient third person would. Easier said then down, but try not to succumb to the assault on your senses. Once you do that , your objectivity takes a big hit
That applies to life in general , its much easier to evaluate things by removing yourself from the equation
So much more my delving into my life advice:) Time to get ready for short put sales as today is two day short put day
Good Luck Trading today
Rick
