Does the President’s rally tonight in Arizona pose a risk for swing traders holding overnight?

The markets are gapping up this morning with QQQ leading the way about an hour before the open.

Of note, Financials strong, Metals mixed, oil unchanged, and TLT off.

Overall a positive bias to start the day.

I added to my mean reversion trade on Monday with  AIG and NFLX. So I am positioned to well if this rally holds today.

Depending on the breadth today I might do a gap continuation trade or a breakout trade for a quick day trade.

On the geopolitical front things have quieted down a bit. But not so on the U.S. political front. As the President took to the airways to discuss his SE Asia policy, in particular, Afganistan, Ryan the speaker of the house did a town hall at CNN criticising the President about Charlottesville.

So, not only is it open warfare between the Senate and the President but now the House leadership.

The timing of the CNN sponsored open house with Ryan was not random.

I suspect when Congress is back in session things will heat up substantially with virtually nothing getting down.

I am an independent so I have the luxury of looking at both parties through a unjaundiced view for lack of a better word. And I have to say the Republicans are showing that they are a party that cannot govern.

Why? Yes, that is the question. But most likely it has to do with the special interest money that has inundated DC. U.S. leaders are not beholden to the public anymore but special interests both home and abroad.

This does not bode well for the America First agenda. To the contrary, I doubt tax cuts get done this year. Health care is dead in the water. The wall most likely will not be funded. And infrastructure who knows when.

We have gotten a glimpse of what the markets will do once this becomes a reality. My view is it can only get worse going forward.

Right now the biggest market moving event is tonight. Trump’s rally in Arizona where most likely he will pardon Sheriff Joe.

Antifa and BLM promise to be there in full force as will the Bikers for Trump. After Charlottesville who knows what violence this will bring.

If things get out of control I suspect the markets will take a big hit Wednesday. So that is what you need to be thinking about if you’re a swing trader that holds trade overnight.

The risk will be a bit higher than normal tonight.

I suspect there will be plenty of security but the crowds of Antifa and BLM are large and well funded. So I would not want to wager against things getting out of control.

One final thing to be thinking about is the debt ceiling. I suspect we will get the typical scare with both sides posturing right up until the last minute. With Bannon gone the Dems are feeling emboldened. So I suspect they will push it to the limit this time around.

I will post any of my trades this morning and my early thoughts the first 15 to 30 min as the market unfolds.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today





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