4:15 Update:
Game of the day coming up in college hoops
Duke
Virginia
Betting is 72% on the road dog with the line moving from -5 to -5-103. So right away for those of you that have been following along its either Virginia or nothing on the game. When >50% of the bettors are on the dog its time to take a look at the favorite. My models show a slight edge to Virginia, Variables an every so slight edge to Virginia and public betting an edge to Virginia. So why am I not betting this game? The variable that points to Virginia is fairly new with very little real time experience. It backtests out very well. But based upon experience that means little. If I had a solid variable that pointed to Virginia this game would be an easy wager for me. So I am passing. But if your considering jumping on the game with the rest of the bettors with Duke you might want to take a 2nd look at the game.
Good Luck Whichever side you take.
Tuesday we had 3 plays and went 1-2. In the NHL we won with Buffalo +144 3-2 and lost with Colorado +144. In College Hoops, we lost with Rutgers +17.5.
So far today no plays have ben sent out.
I received the following email that I feel is instructive:
“Hello Rick! Thank you for your another insight with regard to a 2/1 bet on Trump completing his first term… But that would mean my bet will be locked up for 4 years and it’s still not a guaranteed win, to get while foregoing that same bet and sticking with your regular bets seems to be even more plus EV in a sense that it will get bigger ROI assuming you can make 20 units+/year and bet sizing of 2.5% (I went with a low number to make sure its plausible) Am I missing something here or is there a flow in my reasoning?
Thank you in advance,
and thanks for all the great work you do!”
My response:
“I agree with almost everything you say. And if you were tieing your money up for 4 years that certainly would be a consideration. I have found however the best place to make political wagers is at the poker table with the regulars. When I was playing poker daily I never had any trouble at all finding someone for the other side of a political wager. Especially when if you asked 100 Democrats what Trump’s chances are in finishing his first term. almost all would say 0. Not only that they would give you 20 good reasons why he was not (or should not).
Politics is where people loose their perspective. They become blind to the obvious. Some of this is ideology while some is “fake news”. Behind all this insanity that is going on day to day in U.S. politics there is still the every day mundane lives that most Americans live. There is only a small % that are causing the problems, on both sides of the political spectrum.
But I feel from experience that when people lose their perspective, from a gambling standpoint its time to take their money:) And the best place to do that is to find other poker players that like the other side. No juice, no money tied up. The only risk is that some poker plays are sore loosers. So if you beat them too many times you will have to face the consequences. So factor that in if your a winning player.
Myself if you make a side wager with me and win….My hats off to you:) I always allow for the fact that when I wager one of the outcomes is I might lose. But many the way they act you would think that was not one of the potential outcomes!”
Baseball is right around the corner. As I said, I am going to have the same special I had last season with a few changes. I will give a bit more detail.
For those that want to take a look and see how this site works, you can follow @rick_sports and get a 3 day free trial. Remember to set up twitter so that the plays are sent to your phone via text. Or you can also have them sent to your email in twitter settings.
If you have any questions send me an email.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
