Is this a relief rally this morning in the markets, or is it something more???

An uneventful Monday morning in the markets with the index up about 1/4% 15 min before the open.

Not much of note otherwise.

I am long 1/4 mean reversion in SPY. In addition, I still have my GLD position on and several other swing trades. But I am down to the fewest I have had in awhile.

Things have settled down on the geopolitical front for the time being after several very high tension days.

At home, Congress is still on vacation again this week so do not expect any market moving events this week.

But next Monday we have the debt ceiling front and center. I suspect that we get a nice dip on Monday when the Senate starts posturing on the debt ceiling and closing the government. The Senate Democrats are between a rock and a hard place.

Their base will not be happy with anything less than a government shutdown, PERIOD.  Pressure is being placed on the Democrats in the Senate that if they go along with anything they will be primaried out.

And of course, our politicians having such high character, would rather shut down the government and risk disaster for the Country, than risk being primaried out.

So it will create an interesting dynamic.  The more the Senate Democrats placates their base the better the chances for the Republicans in 2018 and 2020.

Their base has more than likely set up a dynamic where the Democrats are self-destructing in front of our eyes.

If you’re a Republican you might think this is great. But, nothing could be further from reality as a one party system is not good in a free society. You need at least two parties to check on the other party.

My guess is eventually, you will have a break off from the traditional conservative republicans to a different party that is more toward the middle.

This is not going to happen overnight and may never happen if the base of the Democratic party happens to pull off a miracle and regain power. There is a lot of money behind them and that always gives them a chance.

So, I expect more and more volatility directly related to our politicians. And it will be front and center next Monday.

So all my trading until the debt ceiling is resolved will be short term swing trades. One or two days.

Today if we get the right open, we may have a nice setup for a day trade into the close. We will see:)

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


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