RickJ’s general theory on sports betting discussed!

Things have been very quiet on the sports betting front. This is lithe calm before the storm. As when college hoops start we get to the most hectic and time-consuming part of sports handicapping.

There was a number of years that I avoided getting into college hoops because of the work involved. At that time, however, I was playing poker fulltime. Now that I pretty much trade and handicap(along with taking care of my two dogs) I have the time to spend.

Since I have gotten into hoops it has taken over as the most profitable sport to handicap. From the first year, it was that way.

So this rest is welcome.

Let me share this email and response. It’s very instructive as to my approach to sports betting.


I’m sure this question makes you shake your head but why are the Nats not a play with the better pitcher ?”

My response:

“The line went way down from what it was the day before. Also, typically, but not always, the better the pitcher the less value that the line gives you.

All things being equal I would much rather bet on a 0-10 pitcher with a 6.0 ERA than a pitcher that is 10-0 with a low ERA.

A good question to ask in general is what would the public be thinking about this game. The more obvious it is which side the public would like the better the other side usually is.

Now, If you were making one wager with your entire life savings on the line it would be a much different consideration. You might give up EV for the higher probability of winning the game.

But if your planning on making 1000s of wagers the EV is what you pay attention to only.

Until you get a universe of all sharp sports bettors this strategy will hold up. ”

It is, of course, more complex than that but it gives you an overall idea of my approach to handicapping.

No plays have been sent out yet today. But I have begun handicapping the NFL and the matchups seem much better than the last 2 weeks. I actually have 4 matchups I really like.

Last week it was only Jacksonville.

Also in college football, I could find no games where I felt confident enough to send out plays early like I did last week.

Good Luck Today


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