On Friday we had a busy day with 6 plays going 4-2 for +2.21 Units.
In college hoops, we won with TCU +7 80-86 and Oregon St +21 63-76. We lost with Oklahoma +6 50-73.
In the NHL we went 2-0 winning with Nashville +141 4-0 and Carolina -111 3-2.
Finally, in the NBA we lost with Denver Under 212 124-122.
We got off to a slow start this month but with one day left in December, we are +13.15 Units. If this holds up today we will have our 3rd +13 unit or more month in a row. That is 40 units in 3 months. As I have said many a professional handicapper would be thrilled to be able to produce 30 to 40 units a year. Most cannot show a profit.
Today is going to be a very busy day with a full slate of games in every sport.
Starting out in an hour we have two bowl games:
Betting is 50/50 with the line moving from -3-112 to -3. Models are neutral, Variables are neutral and public betting is neutral. So, what is one to do when everything you look at is neutral? A Pass of course and that is what I am going to do.
Betting is 55% on the dog (sound familiar?) with the line moving from -4-101 to -3.5-101. So we have the line moving with the action. Models are split on the game with an ever so slight bias to Georgia Tech. And I mean slight! Variables are neutral and public betting favors Georgia Tech.
Nothing really to go on here as any one of the things I consider is not enough to show a profit at the end of the year. it’s only when everything lines up or all but one with the one being neutral can you show a profit. So my handicapping compels me to pass on the game.
It’s frustrating to sit back during Bowl season and watch the games without betting on them. I know as I used to bet just to have action on the game. But that was years ago when I considered betting gambling. It’s an expensive habit to look at it that way as what is an innocent pastime can turn into sleepless nights if you do not get in under control
So my rule for as long as I can remember is ” I do not have to have an edge to wager, but, I do need to think I have an edge”! Otherwise, what is the point? The books have done nothing to deserve getting your hard earned money. And I say that with many a good friend being very large books.
I assure you however they are not worried as most books are experts on human nature:)
Look for plays shortly before game times. None have been sent out yet today.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks