The big game is finally here and despite the troubles, the NFL has had this year, Superbowl time is always exciting to me.
One caveat, you do not have to bet the game. It’s a good one to watch but for sports betting purposes it’s just another game among many.
Since it is the final game of the season I am going to share my analysis that I send out to all subscribers on every game played in the NFL Season:
49% NE -6-101 -4.5-104 -6 -4.5-105
Models favor Phil, Variables are neutral, Public % is neutral
Let me start out by saying I am passing on this game. The betting is split even so there is virtually no hints based upon what the public is doing.
Variables mean nothing in the super bowl, as the sample size is so small any amount of backtesting will not produce reliable results. So do not let anyone tell you that they have some method that predicts the Superbowl with any degree of accuracy. There is none!
So, what are the clues? Well, the models favor Phil. But, the books opened the game at -6. They typically are not very far off the mark. But the line has move 1.5 pts to -4.5.
So do you go with the models or do you fade the line move?
Its a tossup as to which of the two you give more weight. If you just faded the opening line move this season you would be beating the spread at a 53% pace. So I would say that is a % you do not wish to have against you.
On the other hand, my NFL models have been pretty good this season.
There are a few other intangibles I look at. All except one indicate no preference on this game. The only one that does points to Phil.
That still does not sway me as there just is not enough of an edge as I see it to bet this game.
Saying that its early:) For subscribers, I will send out an update an hour or so before game time.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks