On Monday we had no plays. We had 2 MLB Bet or Pass total games going 0-1 for -1.0 Units. There was a pitching change in Milwaukee.
Today we have no plays pending and 2 Bet or Pass Totals
Looking over the early numbers today Detroit seems to have some equity. Remember, this is on the early numbers.
In last nights NFL game, the Variables showed up as accurate for predicting the outcome of the game.
I received the following email regarding this game that I believe is instructive:
This Roadmap was a very interesting point to me. Can you please explain to me why you want to FADE a big line move without injuries (so Pitt or nothing)/ I have a lot of trouble understanding that as wouldn’t a big line move towards the Buccaneers indicate the possibility of a sharp/steam move on the Bucs? Not saying that’s the case here, but how does saying a line move towards one team make you want to fade it? This goes against everything I thought I knew about somewhat significant line moves, so I’m really interested in hearing your response about this. I’ve honestly been scared off games when I see a line move that gives me better odds…but you’re making it sound like that’s a good thing for the other side. Looking forward to hearing your feedback. Thanks. ”
My Response: “In the NFL, if I have to pick between the “sharps” and the books as to who is the smartest I will take the books every time. Saying that the Sharp moves that are 1/2 pt are the best to go with. Maybe 1 pt if it does not cover a key number.
But when you get to 2 or more pts, especially during prime time games, it is not even close.
But tonight we do not have to worry about it because there isn’t enough there to wager anyway. It takes quite a bit to overcome the vig.
Rick” Remember as a subscriber I am available for any questions you might have.
Take advantage of it.
I have years and years of mistakes that have lead me to this point:)
Trial by error!
Free MLB Road Map for Tuesday
47% Milwaukee 8.5 8.5u-108
53% St Louis -115/+106 -107/-101
Models: St Louis 30+
Variables: No Edge
Public %: No Edge
Not much to go on in this game. The models strongly favor St. Louis. That alone is not enough for me to wager on a game. With the Betting split about even I do not see any reason to wager on this game
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks