The markets are slightly off an hour before the open.
Of note, TLT is strong, everything else is hovering around the even mark.
Whenever you see TLT up 1/2% premarket it indicates to me a negative bias for the stock market. Not always but enough to take notice.
On the home front, a new avenue is opened on the Russia probe. Facebook has agreed to turn over advertising to Mueller and Congressional committees. Where this goes is anyone’s guess. In addition, Rob Reiner is starting a citizens committee to investigate Russia!
As Tucker Carleson put it, not China who is the biggest industrial espionage threat to the U.S. but Russia. And of course, you can find front and center Clapper. Who in the spirit of being a good citizen is going to help them along!
What this means is this Russia, whatever you want to call it, is going to be around for some time. Most of it is politically motivated with some smattering of citizens that actually want to get to the bottom of whatever this is.
History will look at this period in the context that these Humans learned nothing from the McCarthy era. How many lives were devastated because of the Russia hysteria back then?
With the Russia narrative failing to go away, the markets will always be vulnerable to any shocking revelations that are leaked, made up, exaggerated or perhaps have a glimpse of truth to it.
I relish the day when we get back to sanity in the U.S. However, I am afraid that time may be in the distant future. The public and the politicians become more divided every day.
Yet the stock market keeps going up? This has mystified many, including me.
Whenever one evaluates politics and the machinations of the various players, one needs to always take into consideration the delusional aspect of ones thinking.
Every human has that aspect that raises its head several times throughout our very short lifespan. Myself, I try to catch it before it gets out of hand.
Most of the time I do a good job of it, sometimes not:) Perhaps this is the time that is a not. We will see.
The good thing is that I am aware of its existence. Many humans go through life blind to that possibility. So that when they head off the cliff they have no idea what is occurring.
I say this not only from life experience but also to say that when you throw gambling your money into the mix it makes it even more difficult to maneuver the muddy waters of life.
There are so many variables to consider from a pure evaluation of wagers to then throw the human psyche into the mix makes it almost as entertaining as an LSD trip:) As you can see I come out of the 60s generation.
What it does mean in pure gambling terms is that all of this chaos creates an opportunity for the seasoned gambler. Whether it’s the stock market, political betting or sports betting you have this combination that creates value.
After all, if everyone had the psyche of Spock all markets would be completely efficient.
The moral to all of this convoluted mess this morning is that when you find yourself slipping into the Chaos you need to remember that its this Chaos that creates opportunity and value.
I am done expounding for this morning. Meanwhile, as I was writing this Oils and financials are sliding. This would indicate that perhaps TLT gave the correct hint 15 min ago.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
