Should Ryan be a 7 to 1 favorite in the Primary? If not, what should the odds be?

Saturday was a busy day with 7 plays for +.97 units.

We had 2 one unit plays winning with Baltimore +131.5  7-0 and losing with the Mets +183.5 4-9.

We had 5 overnights going 3-2 winning with Arizona -101 2-1, Detroit +127 6-3 and Oakland +103 8-3. Minn +127 lost 9-10 as did KC +140 0-4.

Today so far I have sent out 4 plays.

Note that the overnights are staying steady at over 70% in predicting which way the line will move. In addition, one would think the further into the season the predictions of line movement would lessen. That has not been the situation.

Line move predictions have remained solid. If you do your own handicapping and wager on the overnights, how good is it to know with over 70% accuracy which way the line is going to move:)

Is it the holy grail in MLB? Almost.

Next season I will be using overnights in MLB as 1 unit plays. This season overnights would be close to +25 units as 1 unit plays. And it has been very steady with almost no drawdown.

That is the bright spot of this season. The 1 unit plays have underperformed from last season substantially. 1/2 units improved substantially and totals look very promising.

I tend to analyze everything to the Nth degree and the above is what I come up with for this season’s MLB.

Nothing in football looked good at all yesterday. So I passed on the day. Things will pick up substantially in football once the NFL starts and College football teams have the opening game behind them.

On the political odds today nothing has changed much. However, I have said that the best wager on the board right now is to wager that Flake does not win the GOP primary in Arizona.

After giving it some thought Ryan at 7 to 1 to win the GOP primary looks even better at this point for value. Take the 7 to 1.

He should be no more than a 3 to 1 favorite if that. His coming out against the Arpaio pardon yesterday is going to haunt him with the base. Sure the Dems love it as do the never Trumpers. But the base abhors the idea that anyone in the GOP could be against Arpaio’s pardon.

One has to wonder what the GOP is thinking coming out against the President on this issue. It’s a relatively minor issue, after all, it’s only a misdemeanor, where in a normal political environment no one would even take notice of it.

I view this for any GOP candidate up for election in 2018 as a vote killer for them in the primary. What is remarkable is that these establishment GOP politicians do not even fathom the backlash that will take place in 2018 against them.

If you think that Ryan cannot lose, just look back to Eric Cantor the House Majority Leader. The primary issue that took him down was immigration reform. Which Ryan is in lockstep on his view.

I think you will see Ryan heading down toward 3 to 1 as we approach the primary. And would not be surprised to see it get to even money.

The establishment GOP is gambling that the polling numbers of the President are genuine. That’s quite a gamble considering how far off they were in 2016. My opinion is they are making a very bad gamble and it is going to cost them dearly. The benefit will be to the nonestablishment Republicans.

You could go down the list and fade every never Trumper and at the end of primary season, I think you would have a nice gain. The odds have not caught up with the reality of the situation in my humble opinion.

I again give the caveat that nothing here reflects my view or opinions on the issues. Only as to what I consider the odds to be.

As I have said I have the benefit of being an outsider looking in when it comes to evaluating political odds. I keep my opinions out of the equation completely mostly because I can argue effectively either side of most of the issues and also understand both sides.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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