Only 1 play today in ncaa fb that I like.
Ohio +2.5
A note about the NHL ,Nba and Ncaa baskets. There will be no early posts on these but only late plays. With the decreased betting numbers on these games the variables I look at only become relevant shortly before the game.
If you want on the email or text messaging list for early and late plays just drop me an email. I will still post both on this blog.
These late plays are FREE. Just send me your email address and I will add you to the group receiving late plays.
Sports Comments:
I received the following email:
Since I admire your handicapping and bankroll management I wanted to get some advice to you. My football betting over the last 3 years has been profitable. about 75% of my action is in College, 25% in NFL. College is obviously my strength. My bets range from $100, $150 and $200 with maybe 2-3 wagers during the year at $500. I don’t bet NFL, MLB or Basketball (I take a break from football and play poker)
At one point I was up about $2600, but over the last two weeks I am down over 50 units (1 unit = $50).
My best stretch during every year is bowl season, so I’m considering taking a break from NFL for the rest of the season, and only coming back in bowl season, as my confidence has really been shot after these last couple of weeks. I know everyone has regression, but I haven’t seen one like this in a while since I bet 90% underdogs and that has usually reduced some of the variance.
I’d love to get some advice from you.
My Response:
Variance is one of the hardest concepts for gamblers to grasp. The true professionals understand it completely and give it respect. In sports betting the edge you have(if you have any at all) is very small. After all if your laying -110 you have to overcome 5% just to break even and if your laying -105 then its 2.5%.
Compare this to the house edge in craps of 1.4 percent and those of you that have tried it know its a losing proposition. Also compare to Blackjack. If your a card counter then you may have an edge overall of around 1 to 1.5 percent. If your a 25 dollar unit bettor then your earn rate is about 4 dollars an hour and you probably need a bankroll of at least 25,000 and still have a 10 percent chance of going broke! ( these numbers are based on memory so are not exact but ball park ) And again the house edge with no counting and using basic strategy is around 1.5 percent.
So in sports betting your trying to overcome a pretty high Vig. Much higher then many casino games.
Now…..in the house games your betting every few min. So your sample size gets pretty high in a short period of time. A year of blackjack should give you a good idea where you stand as to your earn rate of you play regularly. But in sports the sample size dosnt get high enough for many years. My guess would be it would have to be 10 years or more before you can become confident you have a positive earn rate.
Your 3 years of betting probably has 0 reliability in determining if you have a positive or negative ev. You just have to put in the years. ( I have been on this blog for going on 3 years now and probably only have 1500 wagers)
The way to approach sports wagering is to keep it in prospective. Its like working crossword puzzles for me. I do it in the morning when I get up. I usually have a spreadsheet on each sport that I take with me to the Bellagio. And then first try to find wagers with the players at no juice. And then the last resort is laying the -110.
Also I approach it as entertainment. If i were to go through a 50 unit downswing it would hurt my ego and have a negligible effect on my bankroll.
Finally remember of the betting population I would say there are only about 1/10th of 1 percent that can actually grind out money betting on sports. Thats about 1 in 1000 bettors. And it might be less then that!
Now you probably know sports bettors that seem to make money betting sports. But the sample size is so small in sports betting that variance saves some bettors for a short period of time. You see that all the time at the poker table.( But usually after 3 or 4 years those players are not around )
Rick
Late Plays.
We have had a number of late plays since Sunday.
17-Nov nhl tor -100
18-Nov ncaa side0-1 tot1-1
19-Nov ncaa tot1-2
20-Nov nhl la 110
ncaa side0-1 tot2-0
21-Nov nhl st lou 115
ncaa tot4-1
Late play record:
Ncaa baskets 08-09 season
Sides 2-3 -1.15
Totals 8-5 +2.75
08-09 season
NFL
Sides 1-0 +1.00
NBA
Sides: 5-2 +2.90
NCAA FB 08-09
Sides 7-6 +0.85
totals 0-1 -1.05
NHL 08-09
Sides: 8-7 +3.80
MLB 08 season
Sides: 27-34 +0.71
Total: 9-6-1 +2.75
Wnba 08
Sides 4-4 -0.20
Arena football
Sides 0-1 -1.05
Total0-1-1 0.00
NHL 07-08
Sides 6-6 +1.15
Total 0-1-2 -1.00
NBA 07-08
Sides 25-16 +8.20
total 10-12-1 – 1.65
NFL
Sides: 1-0 +1.00
Total: 0-1 -1.05
NCAA fb
sides:
totals: 7-5-1 + 1.75
mlb
sides: 8-23 -11.19
Total: 7-12 – 5.65
Wnba 07
Sides: 1-1 0.00
Total: 0-2 -2.15
Good Luck
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Record to date:
NFL 08-09
Sides: 4-4 -0.20
Ncaa fb 08-09 Season
Sides 10-8 +1.60
Total 1-1 -0.05
Ncaafb(07-08)
Sides: 19-10-1 +8.50
Totals: 33-15-2 +17.15
ncaafb (06-07 completed)
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63
MLB (08 season)
Sides: 28-41 -4.69
Total: 2-1-1 +0.90
MLB(07 Season)
Sides: 71-94 +2.79
O/U: 24-21-1 + 2.40
mlb(06 season,started end of season)
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09
NFL (07-08)completed
Sides 18-10 +7.50
Total 0-1 -1.05
nfl(06-07 completed)
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83
NBA 07-08
Sides 11-14 -3.60
Total 6-8 -2.35
Nba 06-07 completed
Side 78-77 -2.75
o/u 31-25 +4.98
NHL (07 Season)
Sides: 4-12 -6.75
totals:
nhl06-07 completed
sides 35-36 +6.66
total 4-5 -1.10
Arena Football
Sides:
Total: 1-0 +1.00
WNBA
Sides: 5-1 +3.95
Total: 0-1 -1.05
Oct06: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81%
Nov06: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0%
Dec06: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11%
Jan07: 57 bets + 6.92 units +12.14%
Feb07: 31 bets -6.75 units -21.77%
Mar07: 40 bets -9.75 units -24.37%
April07: 34 bets +3.42 units +10.06%
May07: 49 bets -3.64 units -7.43%
JUne07: 46 bets +14.66units +31.87%
July07: 45 bets -7.26 units -16.13%
Aug07: 37 bets +2.63 units +7.10%
Sep07t 65 bets +11.29 units +17.37%
Oct07: 28 bet +16.10 +57.50%
Nov07: 40 bet +2.00 units +5.39%
Dec07: 18 bets 0.05 units +2.78%
Jan08: 12 bets -3.60
Feb 08 5 bet +0.80
Mar 08 17 bets -5.10
April 08 12 bets +5.91
May 08 9 bets +2.33
June 08 11 bet +1.08
july 08 19 bets -5.22
Aug 08 20 bet -5.88
Sept 08 14 bet -0.25
Oct 08 17 bets -1.55
Year 3 17 bets -1.55
Year2 206 bets +8.06 +4.79%
Year1 734 Bets + 50.70 units +6.91%
Total: 958 bets +57.30 +6.51%
