12:00 and Final Update
Saturday MLB Play
961 (R) Lincecum, T
962 Colorado (R) Chatwood, T +106
First off thanks for the picks. I was doing a little comparision between your volume of NFL bets last year, compared to the previous two seasons. I noticed you only bet 18 games last year, compared to 30 and 31 in the previous seasons. Do you think the books have become more adapt to your system, and do you anticipate a being closer to the 30 figure or around 20 again this year?
The reason I ask is because I am considering trying to clear an online bonus this year with one of the major sportsbooks that I don’t have an account with, so I am trying to figure a rough figure for an initial deposit (to survive swings) and an average bet size that would allow me to clear the rollover requirement.
Actually I think last season was an anomaly. I cannot ever remember seeing a sunday where there were 10 highly bet public favorites and every one of them covering easily. Also you know its an unusual season when I start getting emails that my methods no longer work! And that betting the public favorites is now the only way to go.
Saying that it has been obvious over the last 2 or 3 years that my methods are not as strong as they used to be in the NFL. But as far as I can tell they are still positive EV.
As far as the number of games wagered there would be no idea how to predict that. The sample size in the NFL is so very small season to season that I do not think you can draw any conclusions based upon the last 3 seasons.
Sorry I cannot be more helpful.
Thought of the day:
” I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people ”
Friday we went 1-2 on our 1/2 Unit plays winning Oakland and losing Minn and the Cubs. All three were one point games.
Also our NHL Playoff tracking setup lost.
Saturday NHL Playoff Tracking setup ( I do not bet these)
Saturday NBA Playoff Tracking Setup ( I do not bet these)
Indiana O 179.5
Saturday MLB Totals tracking setups ( I do not bet these)
Colorado O 10.5 -115
Plays a bit later
Good Luck Today