12:30 Update
1 unit play
Minn +145

Rickj

Another comment:

“theres no nba 2nite homie its 2morrow”

Well you can tell I am back to playing poker full time:) Been at the rio for the last 10 days. If there is any change in my brilliant analysis I will update tomorrow:)

Rick

A Comment:

“Thanks for your insight as always, Rick. But you lose me in the MIA-SA analysis when you say: that both teams “will be playing fully focused tonight.”

Not only does that imply a subjective suggestion that in the NBA Finals, one team didn’t try as hard as the other in the last game — which I find completely ridiculous given these are the most important games of the year and these are professionals — but it also should have nothing to do with how one places a wager, correct? Besides, I was under the impression that “heart” and “momentum” should never be factored into a selection. It’s also inherent in the line already, if there is a way to calculate that stuff anyway.”

I agree with you for the most part. Although I think early on in the series there is a jockeying around seeing what might work. But when you get a 7 game series and are down to the last 3 games tied up. Then you get perhaps less chance of the factor coming into the equation. Its just human nature. In other words I think the chance for an upset is more prevalent early in the series. That is why after a blowout by a team …you really have to take a close look at the other team in the next game. Similar to the NFL when a team loses in a rout…..its always a good idea to take a very close look at the team that got routed in the next game.

As far as betting that observation …I only stick to quantifiable backtested techniques.

I would never place a bet on that observation. And for what its worth its only an observation that I am making. Correct or not……there is no way to quantify it.

Friday we lost our 1 unit play on MInn 4-0. But our MLB Totals B tracking setups went 3-1 and since we started tracking them are off to a 7-1 start.

Nothing so far in the way of Plays today in Baseball although Minn is close today:(

I will update later if it becomes clear

Saturday MLB Totals Tracking Setups A ( I do not bet these)

Colorado U 10

Saturday MLB Totals Tracking Setups B ( I do not bet these)

Colorado U10 -105
Pitt U 7 Even

In the NBA tonight
Miami
San Ant

On Pinnacle the line opened at -1.5 -105 San Ant and is now 1.5 -105. So a pretty significant move towards Miami with the public 55% on Miami. That moves seems to me to be much larger then the 55% would warrant. You would think that to get that kind of move the public would need to be over 65% on the fav. So perhaps some “smart money” on Miami tonight. Thus a slight hint that Miami might be the right side tonight.

On the Negative side Miami blew them out the last game. But with the series tied 2-2 I suspect both sides will be playing fully focused tonight.

So for me a slight hint on Miami but nothing near as strong as in Game 3 on San Ant and that was not even close to a play. A clear cut pass for me

Showing 0 comments
  • Dan
    Reply

    Thanks for your insight as always, Rick. But you lose me in the MIA-SA analysis when you say: that both teams “will be playing fully focused tonight.”

    Not only does that imply a subjective suggestion that in the NBA Finals, one team didn’t try as hard as the other in the last game — which I find completely ridiculous given these are the most important games of the year and these are professionals — but it also should have nothing to do with how one places a wager, correct? Besides, I was under the impression that “heart” and “momentum” should never be factored into a selection. It’s also inherent in the line already, if there is a way to calculate that stuff anyway.

    Thanks for any help.

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