5:15 Update

Saturday NBA Play
1 Unit
Utah +8.5

1st Half +5

4:30 Update

Nothing has shown up today for plays although there is an nba game at 6 that has possibilities and a late college hoop game that is close. Also an NHL game but + on chicago is only available at a few books… am not putting the game out as a play. I cannot get + but if I could I would be betting the game.

I will update if anything becomes clear to me

3:40 Update

Saturday NCAA FB Lean
364 Kentucky +3.5

12:20 Update

Not much showing up in the way of plays so far. But a few games later look promising.

Hilton picks in the order I like them now:

1. Houston +7.5
2 Tenn +3.5
3. Washington +1
4. Seattle -4.5
5. Cinci Pick

Not a good day Friday going 0-3 on our 1 unit NCAA Hoop plays. None were even close. Northwestern hung around in the 2nd half but failed to cover by a bucket.

Today a busy day. I will post as plays develop.

A few comments:

“In 2009/10 in your pre-conference NCAAb picks, there were way more favorites than dogs (you can see it broke down on your site). The last two seasons, after you lost confidence in that system, you pretty much only released dogs. Just wondering why you didn’t at least track the same system that for two seasons hit 60% at big volume. Because I don’t see how favorites in early season NCAAb (which are killing this season, for example), went from 2/3 of your plays to zero. Thanks.”

“Hi Rick. Let me start off by thanking you for sharing your thoughts and plays with us. OK so now to my comment, I don’t understand why you abandon a system that was so successful from a couple years ago. In that system you were taking favorites and dogs and I don’t think considered public money. Which brings me to that as well. I know someone else mentioned it as well, but I don’t see the logic in that on NCAA hoops. Either way though I see the strength of public in NFL, some in NCAA FB.”

These are just a few of the comments I have received for not using a system that was so successful for 2 years. Remember last year we started with this method and if started out so badly that I gave some thought to the method. As I expressed even when it was so successful I could not seem to see any reason it had the results it did. Made no sense except of course for being on the right side of variance.

So I made the decision to not use the system. I then decided again this season to put out the results…but again I could seen it had no predictive value. One of the hardest things is when you have something that works for awhile shifting gears. Some gamblers stick to a method only to find out the hard way that they were successful only because of variance.

Handicapping can be very frustrating. Honestly I do not know of any type of positive ev gambling that is tougher then betting sports. Not many handicappers can beat the books regardless of the hype that is put out. Its a very tough endeavor where nothing is static. So I do the best I can do in evaluating methods I feel are logical and back test well. I am always tweaking and reconsidering my methods.

Believe me when I tell you. If I did not stop putting out those plays that were so successful I would of needed to hire bodyguards to protect me after we had a 50 unit downswing:)

If anyone is looking for something easy to make money this is not the place. However this is the place if you have been somewhat of a successful handicapper and is looking to get another 1/2 to 2% edge in using this information with your own handicapping.

The other two positive ev forms of gambling I know well are poker and blackjack. Poker you can make money year after year. However…..with the unseemly amount that casinos are taking out of the game each year and the players improving its a grind but a reliable win each year. Blackjack is the same way. However you also have to put up with the heat your going to get as a positive ev blackjack player…and for the amount of money you make…its not worth the aggravation.

So there you have my abstract thoughts on the subject this morning.

Nothing looks good on the 9:00 games. I will update a bit later

Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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Rickj's Handicapping Picks