Final update
Sat NBA play
1 unit
Milwaukee +8
Sat NCAA hoop lean ( I do not bet these)
Fresno st +14
Sat NCAA hoop play
1 unit
Miami Ohio +18
1:30 update
Sat NCAA hoop lean ( I do not bet these)
Long beach st +14
10:30 Update
Saturday NCAA Hoop Play
1 Unit
535 Miami Fl +13
A busy day today with about 80 college hoop games. I just finished working them up…quite a job.
Friday no plays. My two for fun picks in college bowl games both went down as the dogs one both games. It sure wouldnt be much fun if I were betting my for fun picks.
Today too early for play. In the 9:00 college hoop games Nebraska was close to a lean….but not quite there.
Two NFL Games today:
The betting is 57% on Indy. On Pinnacle the line moved from -2.5-119 to +1.5 -107. Cris -2.5 to +2.5. Bovada +1. So the line movement is clearly contrary to the betting. This would lead me to take a very serious look at KC except that in the NFL its never a good idea to go with that big a move off the opener. It does look like its the “smart money” making this move but the move is too great to go with it. My models show the game a tossup. Variables slightly favor KC. This game is a clear cut pass for me.
New Orleans has 53% of the betting on them. Pinnacle the line moved from -2.5-123 to -3. Cris -2.5 to -3-120 with Bovada -3 -105.
Always a red flag with more then 50% of the betting is on the dog. Especially when you are getting a move in the opposite direction on the favorite. The negative of course here is the 1/2 pt move is to 3. So to take the game 3 is a push….which considering its 3 is very significant. My models show the game to be fairly valued. Variables far philadelphia moderately.
1 Bowl game today
Vanderbilt has 59% of the betting. The line opened on Pinnacle -3 +100 to -2. Cris steady at -2. Bovada -3-115. My models show the game to be fairly valued. Although at -3 value would shift to Houston. Not much in the way of variables on the game. Also the reverse line move on Pinnacle is not supported by Cris. I like to see both confirming the reverse line move. All in all looks like a toss up for me. My for fun pick on the game is Houston +2.
I will update with plays shortly before game times.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
