Final update

Pacific Texas am cc….side no edge…slight edge U141 Lose

Vill conn. …tracking set conn +4. Win Total no edge

5:30 update

Mich st Harvard. …side. No edge…total…lean on under. 136.5 Lose

3:30

Yale hc…tracking setup Yale +4 Win total no edge
Sam Houston San Diego…tracking setup San Diego +3 Win U119 slight edge Lose
Columbia e mich …no edge side…no edge total
Wisconsin Oregon …no edge side no edge total

2:40 update. Sd st nd st. No edge side… No edge total

1:55 update

Mich. Texas…no edge sides

Sat college hoop play
1/2 unit
Mich U 140.5 Lose

10:15 Update

Ohio Wright St….Tracking setup Wright st +3 Win… slight edge on U128.5 Win

Louisville St Louis….No Edge Side….No edge total.

9:30 Update

VMI IPFW …Side no edge…total no edge…note…21% on Vmi and 20% on the under. Those are pretty low numbers. Would be tough to fade either of those. Especially now that the line has moved from 162 to 168.5. however my variables show no edge in either direction

7:50 Update

Georgia Louisiana Tech…Side No edge…Total no edge
Florida Pitt Side slight edge florida -6 Win…slight edge on the under Win

Friday we went 0-2 on our 1 unit under plays on the totals.

In the first round of the ncaa tournament there are some well defined % setups that have done very well in the past. The Totals did not hold up to past patterns at all and we had the following record for the first round of the tournament.

1/2 Unit
3-4
Lean
2-3
Small edge
4-7

Combining that with the 1 unit totals..it was a pretty miserable first round for the totals.

The sides were a bit different. Although there were no plays the % situations held up well.

Lean 2-3
Moderate edge 3-0
Small edge 5-3

This is typically what I would expect based upon the 1st round previous history.

Now we are in round two. The only situation that you must be aware of in round 2 is that favorites of -5 or more have typically done well 57.1%.

In addition to that the 3 and 7 seeds have typically performed well in round 2. Those teams today that fall into the 3 and 7 seeds are

Syracuse -7
Oregon +5
Texas +4.5
Conn +4

Favorites of 5 or more:

Syracuse -7
Florida -5
Wisconsin -5
Michigan st -7
Louisville -9

So if your going to handicap these games…I would key in on Syracuse, Texas Connecticut Wisconsin Michigan st and Louisville. If your not going to bet these teams I would at the very least pass on the game.

Note that syracuse -7 has both factors going for them.

Of course there are other considerations…but you are facing a big headwind to try to fade those teams.

I will update with plays, tracking setups, edges a bit later. I am going to do it more like my last post of the day yesterday as the public numbers are not as significant during the ncaa tournament…until you start getting a team <20%. At that point you have to seriously consider that side of the game. Good Luck Today RickJ Rickjshandicappingpicks.com Twitter: rickjsportplays Twitter: rickjswingtrade

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Contact Us

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Not readable? Change text. captcha txt
Rickj's Handicapping Picks
Sign up now for our  newsletter. Includes handicapping tips

MLB Season is free for 2024!!

RickJ's Handicapping Picks  The latest in positive EV handicapping Techniques Overnight Plays in MLB are sent out around 3 to 4 PM PST the day before Come join us for a fun and profitable Pro Sports season!!!  
Sign up now for the service. Its free until NCAA FB starts. 
Close

Positive EV Handicapping


Do you know the important clues that help determine which side has +EV?
 
  • Learn about Reverse Line Moves and how they apply to each sport
  • Learn about being a contrarian and using public % numbers to get an edge
  • Learn about the seasons within a season that all sports have
  • Learn key numbers in all sports

Sign up to get updates that will help you with your sports handicapping!
 
SUBSCRIBE
close-link