San Diego +133
I have struggled over the years with Baseball and the NBA. So I have ratcheted everything down in Baseball this year. But also I have reworked my methods dramatically. So this season in baseball there will be slight edges, Leans ( these I would of been betting) , and there will be a small number of situations that I will be betting..it will be only the most perfect setups. Perhaps an oxymoron considering its baseball:)
I am going to do the same thing for the NBA….I did quite a bit of work looking over the NBA and have come to the conclusion there are several seasons in the NBA similar to four seasons in college hoops. Its still a work in process…but the final 3 weeks appears to me to have quite a bit of value…most likely more then any other time of the year. We will see.
The NHL however I am pretty much sticking with the game plan. I got sidetracked working on college hoops and completely quite looking at the NHL. But am back to it.
One final caveat….the variance skyrockets with money line sports vs spread sports. At least that is what my research has shown. You should manage your betting accordingly. One method would be to use 2% of your bankroll for sportsbetting instead of 2.5 or 3.0 %. That should be the only adjustment you need to make.
I wish I could come up with something that has some weight on the final four but everything I look at is neutral on the two games. As far as backtesting any systems on the final four …its pretty much useless due to the small sample size.
48% of the betting is on Florida and the line has moved from -6.5-102 to -7 -102. Steady -7 on Cris. And Bovada ( Our square money confirmation) -6.5
Looking at the public numbers it would appear the side to be on is Florida. But thats it…everything else is neutral on the game. Not enough for me even to put it out as a slight edge. Maybe an ever so slight edge on florida -7:)
The betting is on Kentucky 57%. The line has moved from -1.5 to -1-102 on Pinnacle. -2-104 to -1 on Cris . And Bovada -1.5.
This is similar to the previous game where the line has moved contrary to the action except this time on the dog. My comments are the same on this game…maybe an ever so slight edge on Wisc +1.
Nothing on the totals
Friday a good day for setups:
2-0 on the NBA Leans
1-1 on Slight edges winning in the NBA and Losing in the NHL.
Today we get to the final four. I will have comments on these games shortly but first the early games.
I will update soon with comments on the final four. Also I have been getting quite a bit of email regarding no plays and leans and slight edges..ie what does it all mean. I will comment on that also.
Good Luck Today