3:00 update

Sat mlb play
1/2 unit
Mets +153
Texas +112

8:45 Update

No Plays in the early MLB Games. I will update later this afternoon.

Slight edge
Minn -114

In the NFL Tonight

NFL Preseason Play
1/2 Unit
Houston +7

Not a good day yesterday going 0-4 on our 1/2 Unit Plays. In MLB we had the white sox +170 and had our chances with the game tied 3-3 in the 9th. But a bases loaded single with 2 outs did us in.

In preseason we had 3 1/2 unit plays. All three lost and none were close:(

Today too early for plays but a few comments:

“Love your work, but disagree with one premise. When a total is extreme- say your 5.5 total in the Kershaw/Ross game, or a 13+ total in the old Coors games, I think the better long term play is to go under the low total and over the high total. The reason is that in the case of the baseball game, the fair total could actually be 4, but no one will make a total so out of line with “normal” totals. By it’s nature, lines are somewhat conservative in extreme cases.”

Your logic sounds good but looking over the last 6 years totals of 6 or under have been 64-44-12 to the over hitting 58.1%. Now this year has been a bit different going 2-10 to the over. Now is this a shift? Could be …its my experience that these windows of opportunity usually are only gravy for 4 to 5 years…then the word gets out…and the line makers adjust. Not in all cases but in most. Now as far as high totals the only stats I have of course is colorado at home. And for the most part from august on…your logic is spot on as the overs have trounced the unders at colorado. This year so far they are 6-2. So….to answer your question yes and no:) But certainly nothing is obvious but takes some digging.

Comment 2:

“Rick, at what point do you give up on the whole “home dogs of less than 30% are profitable” I mean it has been at least 3 years now that these have in fact… not been profitable. It seems like following these in the best of circumstances can profit you a few units a year but in the worst (last year for example) you lose 20. It just doesn’t add up to me.”

If you have been following for awhile then you know that the two sports I handicap that have been solid with very little drawdown have been the NFL and Ncaa football. That has been where the gravy is. Also just the last few years I have concentrated on college baskets both sides and totals with great results. But its only been several years so the jury is out. But the NFL and Ncaa football has been pretty solid since I started this blog.

Now that brings us to NHL, NBA and MLB. All have been a struggle. Last season in the NBA was promising but might have been a one season rarity. Too early to tell. NHL has been break even at best. MLB has been a loser. However I am constantly tweaking trying to come up with the right variables to produce positive ev handicapping. In addition I am spending much more time on these the last few years…Most likely a result of my OCD tendencies:)

But now to your comment….If I were handicapping strictly to produce profits…..I would be betting large units on the NFL and NCAA football…Moderate Units on college hoops. And Not betting NHL, MLB and NBA until they prove themselves. Believe me when I tell you that backtesting is not proof. You have to have a good out of sample number of games to substantiate the back testing. This is very difficult to do with the number of variables I use and where I get them. So I have to for the most part rely on real time out of sample testing…which takes a great deal of time before anything is verified.

But I bet everything I post. I use a simple method of my bet size and its 3% of what I set aside for betting. I would recommend 2 to 2.5%. I use 3% because I enjoy the gamble:)
So if your betting 2% then these ups and downs are mere bumps in the road rather then out of action situations where you have to consider quitting betting. That really is one of the secrets to successful sports betting.

Also you need to consider…I have mentioned this before…if your betting 100.00 a game and lets say you in the long run have a 2%ev over the vig then your ev per game is $2.00. Now….your going to experience 1000 to 2000 drawdowns at 100 a game to make 2.00 a wager! So you have to take that into consideration whether betting 100.00 a game is for you. At 2% you would need a 5,000 starting bankroll for sports betting. And still remember putting aside that 5,000 is only going to get you 2.00 a game.

Lets say you decide to make some money betting sports and wager 1,000 a game. Will at 2% …that 20.00 a game ev with a bankroll requirement of 50,000 starting bankroll with 10,000 to 20,000 drawdowns!

So to get the drift…..these are all things you need to take into consideration when you decide to bet sports. And if you think these numbers and ideas are crazy….then please do not start betting sports as you are going to be very disappointed and most likely lose more money then you wish.

Oh yes..as to home dogs under 30%. This season they are 42-56 for -7.94 units. But if you consider <30% with a reverse line move then they are 20-19 for +2.81 units. Under 25% has been the gravy for home dogs this season. Ok....its not even 7:00 and I am going back to handicapping todays games. Finally the Hilton NFL supercontest is only 2 weeks away. If you live out of las vegas and are on the fence and need a good proxy service I highly recommend lasvegascontestproxy.com I know the owner personally and you will get great service. Good Luck Today RickJ Rickjshandicappingpicks.com Twitter: rickjsportplays Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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