3:50 Update
The most lopsided public game is going off today with
Michigan st
Nebraska
86 % of the betting is on Mich st but the line has moved from -4.5 to -3.5
Usually I would be looking for any excuse to bet nebraska…however My models show mich st as the right side and so do the variables….But….I refuse to even think about going against nebraska when they have only 13% of the betting on them…A clear cut pass for me.
Also I hear from a good source that the off book betting is even more slanted toward Mich st!!!!
11:40 UpDate
Games coming up soon
Model discrepancy
New Mexico +20.5 W
Iowa -5.5 W
Wisconsin -10 L
For Subscribers plays have been sent out. Let me know if you have not received them
10:30 Update
Another interesting game today.
Lafayette
Georgia state
76% of the betting is on Lafayette but the line has dropped from -6.5 to -1.5. No injuries that I can tell. The only explanation is a big betting service has put out Georia state as a pick but the move is quite dramatic 5 pts! It looks like today is a day of irregularities as you do not see these types of combination of numbers very often.
Model discrepancy favors Lafayette -1.5 W
Bet or pass Lafayette -1.5 ( even at 76% but move is just too great) W
9:25 Update
Another interesting game this morning
Syracuse
Louisville
The betting is 62% on the road dog but the line has moved from -12 to -17 on the home favorite…..The models show that -17 is over priced but hard to go with 62% of the bettors….an interesting set of circumstances
8:35 Update
Model differences for 9:00 games
Kentucky +16.5 L
NorthWestern +2 W
Syracuse +17 L
These are not plays or setups…. Just to help you out in using your own methods.
One interesting game at 9:00
Duke
N.Carolina
Its interesting because N.Carolina ranked #21 in the country is a 7 pt favorite at home and they are only getting 30% of the betting. So you see the rare circumstance of an unranked road dog getting 70% of the betting vs a home ranked team. You will not see that very often. I really have no opinion on the game for either side but will be interesting to see how things turn out. Usually I would be looking for an excuse to take the favorite but it does not fall into my techniques for a play.
Bet or Pass
N. Carolina -7 W
Vanderbilt +20.5 W
Northwestern +2 W
Syracuse +17 L
These are not plays…..I do not bet these. Merely again for giving you input for your own handicaping!
Friday we went 1-2 on our plays with Phil +13.5 in the NBA winning, Colorado +136 in the NHL losing and SMU +13 in College football losing. SMU hung in there and with less then one min to go they had the ball and were driving down by 13. But we got our first last min interception run back to lose the cover:(
To make a comment on SMU +13. This setup was the best I have seen in college football. I have never had so many variables pointing to this game and all very reliable. But it went down! Thats why there is no reason to raise your bet size except as a % of your bankroll change. These edges are no sure things…they are long run propositions.
As this is the weekend I need to point out there have been changes to the site. If you have not signed on during the week you need to take a look at the Nov 2nd post that explains the changes. Plays are now only 49$ for the month. Thats going to come down to around 1 to 2 $ per play or less. This is a ballpark figure since as you know I do not manufacture a play but it has to meet very strict criteria. But I am now able to analyze the totals in all sports. In addition you get my hilton picks early….around thursday no later then friday and if you have a game you wish my stats on send me an email and I will send them to you with my opinion…from now on I will post Hilton picks on the site on Sunday.
I have made it easy to sign up with the paypal button on the upper left. Just pick the subscription and you will be on board! Again the Nov 2nd post explains things in much more detail.
Today is going to be a busy day. I will still post significant model differences on the site along with other comments for particular games of interest as I have been doing. But I am no longer posting plays on the site.
Its going to be a busy day today….I will start posting and sending out plays in a few hours.
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)
