Several games tonight with ranked teams in College Football:
#6 Oklahoma State
Betting is 68% on the Home Dog with the line moving from -1 OKL State to -2.5 Baylor. Thats quite a move considering only 32% of the betting is on Baylor. At some books the line has moved to -3! Models show -3 to be about the right line on the game and variables are split equally on both sides. The game is a Pass for me.
Betting is 66% on the home favorite with the line moving from -10 to now -17.5. Boykin is most likely out for the game which accounts for the move. Myself I like to stay away from games in college football where the starting quarterback is out. Its not like the NFL where they usually have someone competent to put in . And its not like the NBA where usually the first game with a significant injury you want to bet on the injured team. Unless you have some good in formation on the quarterback for TCU its really too random to start guessing on the outcome. So I am passing.
One more for good Measure
#4 Notre Dame
Betting is 69% on Notre Dame with the line moving from -17 to -14 away from the betting . Models show the move to be overdone slightly while variables strongly point to Boston College. But this is a good example as to what I discussed in yesterday’s post. The “sharps” have jumped all over this one and its tough to get in now 3 pts from the opening line. So a pass. A number of years ago you might have gotten Boston college +20 by game time. But things certainly have changed!
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Good Luck Tonight!
Friday we went 3-2 on our College basketball plays with sides going 2-0 and totals 1-2.
Today is going to be a busy day with a full slate of games in all sports. To top it off I have slept in this morning so not much time to post comments on games. Although I will try to get some games posted after I get caught up this morning.
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