Two games today in College Football.
We have a carry over with a 1/2 unit play on UL Laf -6
The public is on UL Laf 69% with the line opening at -5 and is now -6.5. Everything I look at points to UL Laf today and there is only 1 thing keeping it from being a 1 unit play.
The public is on Boise St 63% with the line opening at -5 and staying at -5. This game for me is a toss up as to the cover. I have variables that point to both sides of the game. A clear cut pass for me.
A comment about last nights loser!
“Why exactly are you on a public dog and a line move that makes perfect sense?”
It was a bet for me since nothing I look at pointed to Central Florida. My models showed the game to be about a field goal difference and in addition to that there was another variable I look at that pointed strongly to the dog.
Granted at 37% you could argue that C fla is a fav where the public is on the dog. But at 37% it is borderline. In addition there was no reverse line move as the line moved with the action to +7 from +8. We got a “good” number at +7.5
But it lost….the way I look at gambling one of the possible outcomes is you can lose. Many gamblers actually seem to not realize this. The best example is the poker players that get mad when they lose a hand or get outdrawn. They throw the cards, berate the dealer, berate the player that beat them..and surprisingly this happens every day!
As Spock would say…that is not logical behavior:)