Seasonality vs Tax Bill uncertainty, Which will win out going into year in for the Stock Market?

The Stock Market is up slightly an hour before the open. Of note, Financials, IBB, are positive and TLT USO, Metals are in the red.

To me, it looks like a slightly positive bias.

One thing to note is that trading volume starts dropping off now into the holidays. In addition, this we are in an extremely positive seasonally bullish period for the markets.

No one is even talking about the rate hike yesterday by Yellen. Her parting shot before she leaves as Chairman. An appropriate exit, I doubt she would have it any other way:)

I say that tongue in cheek, however, as she has done a pretty good job as I see it. I have no complaints about the way Yellen had run the Fed. One of the few agencies that had not been extremely political the last 8 years.

I suspect we head higher into the end of the year.  The only thing that could derail this is the tax bill. I am still no on board with the idea that the tax bill will get enough votes in the Senate.

Most are considering it a done deal. But, Corker is a no. Collins and Flake have already given notice that that is not a yes vote yet. Then you have McCain back at Mayos for treatment.

I know the betting odds are 2 to 1 in favor of a bill by year end, but I view it 2 to 1 the other way. Perhaps even higher.

From a purely political standpoint, what motivation does Flake have to vote for the bill? He is a lame duck and a bitter enemy of Trump. Corker has shown us what that combination results in.

Then you have McCain, who perhaps will not be able to make it back for the vote, or who might do a remake of his health care routine.

Collins is weighing the pros and cons. Essentially that means for her is can she get away with a no vote and stay in the Senate. If she figures out a way she is a no vote.

The backstabbing has not changed a bit in the Senate. And I suspect at the very least there will be a good scare to the markets prior to the vote. And more than likely a no vote in the Senate. We will see:)  After all, I could not have been more wrong on the Alabama special election!

Perhaps I am getting too cynical as I get older. We will see.

I have several trades on that I have shared as we head into today. GLD a system trade got a boost, XNCR a mean reversion trade is now languishing after a nice rebound, TUR a bottom reversal trade is looking great right now, and ILF a bottom reversal trade has stumbled. So we may be seeing an exit in that trade today.

Also, I do have a stock that looks reasonable for a day trade this morning if the breadth cooperates. Come join me at @rickjswings at the open.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Skype: riccja

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