So the Senate is giving up vacation time to attempt a passage of health care:) Are the markets in jeopardy now?

The market is mixed this morning with IWM weak and QQQ strong.

Of note, Oil weak, financials a bit higher, IBB a bit higher and metals hovering around even. A neutral to slightly weak bias to me.

Today is more of the same for me. I will try to find a few trades in my basket of securities to trade. So far I have one in mind, CLX. But, the setup will have to be clear this morning before I take the trade.

I have not done my final screen yet that takes into consideration pre-market trading so hopefully I will have a few more names to consider.

Looking at the political odds, things are bouncing around a bit. The odds of the Senate passing a health care bill by August 15th is almost 7/1 against, It’s really a shame that the Senators are wasting their hard earned vacation time for nothing:)

At 7 to 1 I think the odds are about right where they should be at this point. The fact that the Senate has given up vacation time indicates that the Senate leader feels there is a chance of getting something passed.

The new FBI odds this morning is almost 4 to 1 in favor now that Wray will be confirmed by 7/31. This line has been all over the board. I suspect the move is predicated upon the committee hearing yesterday where it looks like the approval will get out of the committee. But do not underestimate the dysfunction that will occur in the main chamber of the Senate.

Now, it appears there will be at least one Democrat vote for Wray (Feinstein).  But, I still feel that the vote will go against Wray as the status quo suits the Democrats and the Never Trumpers in the Republican party. After watching the Senate hearing it is a scary bet but I would take the 4 to 1 against.

Politics right now is the primary risk to the markets so looking at the political odds and analyzing them should be helpful to determine the risk in the markets. The odds give you a perspective and the analysis is the only opinion:)

The idea is that the more risk to Trump the greater risk to the markets. Not because Trump is a super guy but because health care, lower taxes, less regulation is the goal of the administration. If that is derailed for whatever reason the markets will tank.

I have received a high number of emails the last few days about my personal opinion on our political dysfunction. It’s tempting to get into that but this is a site where everyone is welcome.  I want the site to stick to investing and betting. I respect all opinions that are based upon logic and that are genuine. So, do not extect this site to get anywhere close to being a site for expressing political opinions.

I am about as down the middle as you will find in the U.S. today. I look through a lens based upon logic and human nature. It has served me well over the years both as a trial attorney and a businessman. And although I can affectively argue either side of an issue effectively and pursuasively, not being an attorney anymore I will stick to only arguing the side that logic with an understanding of human nature leads me to.

But for this site it will only be as it relates to investing and betting:)

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


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