Who needs “House of Cards” when you have the Trump White House. Players include the deep state, House, and the Senate, Never Trumpers, an ex-president and his staffers, along with a supporting cast of Antifa rioters, and of course mainstream media.
The drama that is unfolding rivals anything you will find on T.V. I have so say at age 70 I did not know what I was missing with the relative stability the U.S. has had compared to the present time.
Seriously, however, one has to have some intellectual concept of what is unfolding day to day in the insane world of U.S. politics to get a good grasp of the risk the markets are facing at this time.
If you’re an ideologue on either side of the isle then you have short changed yourself and will find it hard to think objectively about trading.
It matters not what side of the political spectrum you are on what does matter is if you find yourself slipping into a destructive ideological pattern. At that point, you had best quit trading until you reach a balance.
It’s very similar to get married to AA in hold em after the flop or deciding one style of poker is right regardless of the makeup of the game you are playing in.
I view the market right now as being on a precipice. There have been a few warning flags in the last 2 weeks but nothing confirming what I have been saying yet.
But consider this. This bull market is very long in the tooth as bull markets go. The run up since Trump was elected has been astonishing and has taken many by surprise. But most now are in and on board with the rally.
The Fed odds of a rate hike tomorrow is 96%. That is in spite of no inflation and substantial risks economically and politically. It is almost as though they have blinders on.
Also, consider that the sides in the political battle are entrenching at this point. Sessions testimony before Congress today is what I see as a prelude to Sessions reversing his recusal, getting rid of the special counsel, firing his assistant AG, and appointing a new special counsel to investigate the unmasking and leaking along with the various other leaks.
All this is likely to unfold this week and next. If you think the rhetoric has been out of control, when and if this occurs it will increase even more.
In addition, that will raise the risk of a constitutional crisis as the White House prepares for battle against all involved against it.
Now ask yourself, how is the market going to respond to a scenario like this? If you think or hope that it will ignore it, think again:)
Now please note I used the term if. My take on all this as to what might unfold is a big if. But logically it appears to me to be one of the more likely scenarios to occur.
I am tempted to buy a straddle in SPY but the cost of these typically are far from a bargain.
But I am trying to figure out a low-risk way to take advantage of a drop in the markets that could be quick and substantial.
I will let you know if I find a way:) Also I have two trades going. IGE and DPZ. I am going to most likely wait until after Session’s testimony before deciding on any additional trades today.
Of note this morning, Financials is on the plus side, Metals negative along with oil and tlt. Overall a somewhat neutral configuration with perhaps a slight bias to the upside.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks