Sitting at 21-14 in the Hilton NFL Super Contest!!!

4:30 Update

Well I am sitting at 0-1-1 in my contest picks and sweating out San Diego +5.5. Does not look right here.

One game tonight in the NFL:

Phil

Dallas

Betting is 59% on the home favorite with the line moving from -4.5-105 to -5-105. Models favor Phil. Variables are neutral. Public betting is neutral. Not much to go on here. Models alone will not even get close in the NFL or any other sport for that matter. I do have Phil in the Hilton NFL Contest so I will be following the game with interest. Otherwise I am passing on the game.

Good Luck whichever side you take!

 

Saturday was a busy day and a good one. We had 6 one unit plays and went 4-2.

College Football was an exceptional day going 4-1. But the exceptional part of the day is that every one of our 4 winning dogs not only covered but won the game outright!!!

Army +7 won 21-13, Boston College +15.5 won 21-14 , Kent State +12.5 won 27.24 and New Mexico +3.5 won 28-21. Our loser in college football was Rice +29.5 losing 16-61.

In the NBA we had Memphis +2.5 which lost 104-111.

Today is Super Contest day where I sit at 21-14 through week 7. At 60% I am right around 100th place out of 1900 entrants. There is not doubt that I need to put together a nice 3 or 4-week run now to be in a position to get into the top 10. One thing you can count on is that I am trying:)

My picks this week in the order I liked them at the time:

Cleveland +3

Buffalo +6.5

Bears +6.5

Phil +4.5

San Diego +5.5

The Hilton Top 5 this week:

New England

San Diego

Oakland

Atlanta

New Orleans

The Hilton top 5 went 3-2 last week bring their record to a dismal 11-23-1

I am with them on San Diego:( and fading them against New England.

% numbers for today in the NFL:

New England 87

Minn 86

Oakland 75

Cinci 66

Jets 66

Dallas 60

KC 58

Seattle 56

Atlanta 56

Detr 53

Arizona 53

Denver 50

One tip for betting the NFL is that when the % numbers get over 80% you should have an absolute rule to stay away from that side. It’s almost 100% certainty there is no value on that side. These are typically the games where your instincts tell you to beg borrow and steal to get down as much as you can on that side. You need to fight those human instincts and condition yourself to either pass or bet the other side.  This tip alone will save you a lot of money betting the NFL.

I received an email last night why I do not post the Poker room plays. I agree those were some of the best plays you could find fading the poker room. But since I no longer frequent the poker rooms those plays have gone by the wayside. But for those of you that are active players keep your ears open at the tables on Saturday. Whichever game is the the nuts among the players just bet the other side. It is amazing how accurate that was:)

I also received several emails as to why I did not post any matchups yesterday n College football. I only do that when I have time. Yesterday was a busy day for handicapping with everything going. In addition, typically I have 2 or maybe 3 plays in college football but yesterday we had 5 and there was a number of other games that could have developed into a play.  My first responsibility is to the subscribers. Then if I have time I will post info on matchups. Most of the time I have a bit of free time but yesterday was not one of those days.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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