Some interesting political odds that I see that have some merit.
The best to me appears to be getting 5 to 1 against Cavenaugh being confirmed to the Supreme Court.
The last federal just bit the dust as Scott and Rubio torpedoed it 5 min before the vote.
I suspect the way D.C. is right now we have a good chance at experiencing the same thing with Cavenaugh. There is big money against him along with a lot of political firepower.
5 to 1 looks way too high to me….more like 3 to 2 in favor.
In addition, you can fade every Red State Democrat and most likely come out on top. You will not win them all but I suspect you will end up on the positive side.
First, the polling has the House close and the Senate and easy Republican win. Combine that with the polling almost always being understated for the Republicans and you get some nice prices.
My best bet the last few times I posted was taking big odds that Ryan would get beat in the Primary. Well, did not have to sweat that one as he decided not to run. I wonder why:)
Another decent wager is laying 9 to 2 that Rosenstein will not be impeached this year. That is almost free money as I see it. With the makeup of the House right now, especially under Ryan’s leadership that is virtually no chance of his impeachment.
The odds of the Republicans keeping the Senate are close to 3 to 1 while in the House the odds of a change to Democrat control is 3 to 2.
Those look about right to me, however, a top pollster that looks at things reality-based puts the House just a bit more than 50/50 to the Dems.
He also logically stated that any poll involving Trump you can add 10 points to it. Considering that Trump supporters are getting attacked that seems about right to me.
The caveat with Trump is how the Special Counsel ends up. So far its been all speculation as to what the special counsel is actually investigating all charges brought not having anything to do with Trump.
However, with the revelations from the FBI texts, it seems apparent that the Special Counsel is most likely the insurance policy Strozk was talking about.
If so, I expect we are not anywhere near the end of Mueller’s investigation.
A few other observations. If the Special Counsel had not been appointed Trump would be a lock for 2020. But with the Special Counsel hanging over his head, if things go south, he may well be under pressure to resign.
Another thing to keep in mind. If you can find a wager on Sessions being fired I would take it. As once Mueller is gone I doubt it will be a week before Sessions gets the ax as well as Rosenstein.
I have not seen any odds on this but I am keeping a watch.
Now, also keep in mind that there is a group of pretty sharp people that feel that Sessions is running a sting. The end result is with Huber and Sessions bringing down a lot of people soon.
I do not prescribe to this but can not rule it out as the people with this opinion have been right about things most of the time.
In summary, the best bets right now are:
1. Take the 5 to 1 against Cavenaugh being confirmed
2. Fade the Red State Democrats in November.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks