Some observations

I know there is a difference of opinion as to when I should put these picks out…but I am going to stick with the 6 to 6:30 timespan for the rest of the season. Aside from more books being open……sometimes I play poker until late hours and its much easier to get things done in the morning.

Next…..please note….we are only hitting 50% on these since I started posting this year. 10-10-1 That is far from the 60% I hit last season. Be careful with these….its early in the season…..anything can happen..and usually does. As I said before last season could well have been a fluke….there is no reason to expect another 60% season…and its highly probable that we wont get near that this year.

This is not football where you have the public guiding you to the right side…..this is pure handicapping trying to come out with a better line then the books……that is always a very tenuous undertaking.

So….use good money management…dont chase the lines…..if you dont get down…so what…..concentrate on following the plays and see where thing wash out. If you get down early fine….but it will be much more profitable for you to pass on a game that has moved 2 pts before you get down.

I am saying this because I used to have the gambler mentality…..Its something you have to get through and over before you can consistently make money gambling on a daily basis…..and even then its no easy go!

For those of you that have seen “The Hustler ” with Paul Newman, Jackie Gleason, and George C Scott….if you have a doubt as to what to do……ask your self……what would Bert Gordon do:)

In any event…you get the drift…..be careful…the last thing I want is for anyone to lose a lot of money on these plays……i can do that myself:)

RickJ

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  • Anonymous
    Reply

    "If you get down early fine….but it will be much more profitable for you to pass on a game that has moved 2 pts before you get down."

    I think this is the most important concept and wonder if Rick or anyone else would care to flesh it out some more.

    For example, one play that wasn't yours today that I followed was George Mason -2.5. The line was hit and then quickly moved to -4.0. At what threshold does a play no longer become a play?

    A move from 2.5 to 4.0 is significant — but how much so? If GM wins by 3 you lose, by 4 you push, otherwise the results are the same no matter which line you got.

    Last night another one, Loyola Marymount +7, was hit and then dropped to +5.5. They ended up losing by 2 and covered either way. The night before that, North Texas +1.5, was hit and dropped to a pk. They ended up winning straight up.

    Obviously, there *will* be times that you get squeezed by missing the better number and being off by a point and a half, but I wonder Rick if you had any thoughts on the significance of those differences.

    Awesome blog, keep up the good work, and never let the haters get you down.

  • mouldhouse
    Reply

    http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/half-point-calculator.aspx

    Posted this before on another subject, but this great resource is relevant again here; pretty much answers the above questions in terms of what the significance is of taking 1 point or more away from the line.

    Already there's been one push which would have been a loser if you played after the steam. There's been some other close games as well, maybe more that would have gone from the W column to the L column.

    As Rick said, if he was a 60% capper against the opening lines, it wouldn't be so much of a problem. However, there's nowhere near enough results in the book to prove he is a 60% capper in NCAAB – he may well be, he may even be better – but time will tell. If you need to hit 53% just to break even at your book (rounding up percentages), and he is really a 57% capper who had a great season, playing >1 point away from the spread will give a large probability of you breaking even over the season, or losing.

    Great blog Rick, you are the man.

  • Anonymous
    Reply

    Hey Rick–this is ToddT, we played a lot of Omaha together in Vegas. I loved you Burt Gordon reference. George C. Scott is amazing in the film as are Newman, Laurie, and Gleason. Best film about gambling by miles and miles.

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