Friday we had two 1/2 unit plays and a setup in MLB and all three lost. White sox +135 lost 3-10 and the Yankees +109 lost 6-5. We were looking good in the Yankee game as they were ahead late in the game 5-2. But 3 in the bottom of the 6th along with another in the 7th game Baltimore the game. Finally, our setup on Minn lost 4-2.
So as we start out sports betting the month of June we are on a small downswing. But so far the swings have been very tame this season as in +8 to -8 to even to now -5 units. It would not take much of a run to the upside to turn this season into a very good one. Or we may just get more of the same. And of course, we could get the dreaded freefall to the downside:)
But money line sports are quite a bit different in how the season goes compared to spread betting. Spread betting you can find situations that come in at a very nice win rate while money line it’s more like flipping a coin with a small edge. At least that is the way it appears to me. That is why the approach to wagering I explain in the must read portion of the site is required reading.
You cannot approach sports betting like you gamble at the dice table. It has to be methodical and controlled. Not tilt allowed at any time. If you’re concerned about losing 5 to 10 units on the downside then you are wagering too much. The only concern losing should give you is perhaps to your ego but it should not in one bit cause you any monetary concerns.
There are several reasons:
1 If the bet size causes monetary concerns then your more prone to diverge from the plan which is a critical mistake. It does in I would say 80 to 90 % of the sports bettors.
2. It also means you have exposed yourself to being taken out by variance. A positive EV sports bettors worst enemy is variance. So you have to take variance out of the picture by bet sizing and bankroll sizing. If variance is not taken out then it’s just a question of when not if!!!
Sports betting is supposed to be an enjoyable mentally stimulating pastime. Not a way to get excitement or be part of any self-destructive tendencies your personality might have.
Enough said on the above however for those of you that have been following me the last 13 years know that from time to time this bit of information needs to get said periodically.
If you’re a sports bettor and are searching for the holy grail. The handicapper that is going to bring you riches. The one that you can simply throw caution aside then you have a lot to learn. I am here to tell you that none of those exist. Despite the advertising and hype they simply do not exist.
The best you can hope to accomplish with sports betting is to find a handicapper that will grind you profits if you stick to a good bet sizing technique. And also one that you pick up tips to improve your own handicapping.
That is where I come in. But it’s still a grind. There are some people you could give out 90% winners to and they are not going to make money.
On the bright side If you can stick with baseball and keep your self-control then you are well on your way to being a disciplined sports bettor.
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks