A big game coming up in College hoops:
Betting is 58% on the road dog with the line moving from -1.5-110 to -2-111. My models have the line about where it should be, Variables very slightly point to Baylor, public betting points to Baylor. The only thing to go on here is that the public is on the dog. Years ago that alone was enough to consider betting the game. But things have changed and I need a lot more to pull the trigger. This game is nowhere close to being a play. I am passing.
Friday we had 1 play and it won. In College Hoops, we won with Stanford +2.5 73-68.
So far today I have sent out 0 plays.
Let me mention, there is a subset of games where everything I look at lines up on the game. Typically for me to bet on a game assuming everything else is in line I only need 1 very strong variable supporting the play.
But in the subset of games I am talking about you have several very strong variables. In addition, the other things I look at point strongly to the game.
Stanford was one of those games last night. Sort of like the perfect storm.
Now before you get excited we are talking about % increase in results, far from a lock:)
Myself I am not going to wager more on these games at least for now. But I am going to start tracking them going forward. In addition, when I put out a play that meets the parameters of a “perfect storm ” play, I will designate it with a ** symbol. That way if you’re doing your own handicapping also you might want to use this as another filter.
These plays do not come up that often, so the sample size is going to be small. And the end result might be not much of a difference. But I have been noticing that these games have been coming in like clockwork:)
In addition, I received an email a few days ago asking about my new variable and why suddenly I am not putting those numbers out.
For those of you that have been following me for some time you know that when I post things like that it is very similar to my thinking out loud. I share my thoughts that go through my mind handicapping so that you can get some understanding of the process.
I am still tracking these, however, knowing gamblers the way I do it is as sure as I am sitting here that some are going to bet these just to get action.
So, I am going to use a bit of prudence and just track them to the side for now.
It is going to be a busy day today so I had better get back to handicapping.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks