Thursday we had 4 plays and went 2-2 for a very slight gain. All four were overnights.
Cubs -138 won 11-1, Arizona +109 10-3, San Fran +140 lost 11-12 and Pit +107 lost 2-4.
Today so far I have sent out 3 overnights.
I have been missing in action this week from posting as I have had a nightmare week as explained in my earlier post this morning. But things should be back to the usual routine Monday morning if not tomorrow.
The last 2 days it took all my effort to get out of bed and do my daily handicapping routine. The flu hit me hard on Wednesday.
I received an email this morning on plays vs overnight:
“Hi, Rick! Quick question. Most of your plays have been overnight plays lately. I thought 1 of your more important factors to consider a play is Public Betting? When you’re free, please help with answering that for me at your earliest convenience.
“Public betting is a significant factor and nothing really has changed. I did add a filter to the plays and that has reduced the number of wagers a bit. But the swings so far have been minimal. Overnights I started last season, and the models have been good enough to use these as half unit wagers
The lack of plays has been mostly because the models have been on the other side of some of the plays. I suspect this will be temporary. You can see the breakdown in the email breakdown I send out on the games
Variables and public betting would be former plays when they agree.
If you have models that are better than what I use, you could use them rather than mine.
So far the range for the first half of the season has been from -10 units to +1 units. After a 0-9 start for 1 unit plays in April things have leveled out a bit. Last season the money was made the last 2 to 3 weeks of the season. So far we are not much different than where we were last season at this time
I do not see anything unusual so far in the results or the frequency of plays”
If anyone has any questions regarding this or anything else the quickest way to get ahold of me is via email. Direct messages are hit and miss.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks