The stock market today has had a narrow range compared to recent days. Right now the Nasdaq is about even with the dow down 1.3%.
Some news came out yesterday that some of our lawmakers when they received classified info regarding the virus went out and sold all their stock. Some names came out both Republican and Democrat. I expect a large backlash on this. Americans are suffering and our lawmakers make money off it. Trading is a 0 sum game. When they win others lose. I put their actions in the same category as looters.
I talked at some length yesterday regarding the short put sales I make beginning on Thursday for expiration on Friday. My six trades this week look very likely to go an easy 6-0 for some pretty easy money.
All had a 30% cushion from the strike price and every stock is on the plus side today. Even with the Dow negative. That means to me my scanner is working great:)
You can get onboard for these trades and its free.
I reserved these for subscribers to my sports service, but since all my members are on pause, you can sign up, your membership paused, and then when baseball begins you have 3 days to decide if you want to continue.
Just go to the website, pull down the PayPal menu, and subscribe to the monthly option. You will not be charged as it has a 3-day free trial. Then I will put your membership on pause.
Everything right now is coronavirus related. The news is driving the markets and most of the news is being given in its worst light possible.
It appears to me that a treatment is in the works and could be available within a week or two at the latest.
The breaking news is as follows:
Essentially a combination of two drugs that have been around for a very long time has had a 100% cure rate for coronavirus in 3 to 6 days with no deaths. These are drugs that could be available to every medical outlet within a week if the government gets on it. That is something to watch.
Meanwhile, the CDC numbers are out this morning and total deaths in the U.S. are now 201. That is 44 more from yesterday.
So far the death rates are pretty tame for the degree of panic we are seeing. Especially with treatment weeks away. I assure you President Trump is on top of this and will be pushing the FDA to allow these drugs to be used en masse. Otherwise, we will be seeing off label treatment. Many Drs. now are using this combination in the treatment of their patients.
I still do not think its safe to think about long term trades in the market. I would wait and see how quickly Trump can get the government to start recognizing these treatments as standard and get them in gear. If there is an effective treatment, that means everything will change very quickly. Trump will not waist and time.
Now, let’s take a look at the updated political odds:
Biden 89/11 Unchanged
Sanders 2/98 +1 Pts
Clinton 5/95 Unchanged
Nothing has changed. But I am still skeptical Biden will be the nominee.
Dem VP Nomination:
Harris 30/70 Unchanged
Klobuchar 29/71 +2 Pts
Abrams 12/88 Unchanged
Warren 10/90 +2 Pts
I do not have any opinion at all on these. Harris, however, would be a mistake. Biden already has California. It would be a waste of a VP pick.
Trump 46/54 +1 Pt ( Right where I made my wager on Trump)
Biden 47/53 -1 Pt
Right now a tossup. I like Trump at a tossup.
Control of the Presidency: Dems 55/45 -1 Pt
Again I believe the value is in the Republicans
Control of the House:
74/26 Democrats: -1 Pt ( I took the 3 to 1 this morning)
I like the Republicans here. I rate it a tossup whether they regain the House.
Although the better wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”
Control of the Senate:
52/48 in favor of the Republicans -6 Pts
That is a large drop in this category. I still am laying off this wager. The Senate Republicans seem to be trying to lose. Collins, Graham are both taking positions that could cost them in November. But the line is getting to an area that is attractive.
Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 88/12 +5 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1
I still like my 4 to 1. Although it will be close. It will all depend on when they reopen everything.
That is where we are now. MLB is still set to start on May 1st. I will keep everyone updated. By then perhaps the death toll will hit 300. This is the most destruction the media has done since it has been in existence if you ask me.
But, I am not an expert, I only observe and draw my own conclusions.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks