It is looking like a gap up this morning for the markets with premarket activity showing no warning signs today. GS is +.6% which is always a good sign.
I am long looking to get longer. Although the window is closing rapidly to get on board this tailwind through Jan 2nd.
After Jan 2nd there is still a positive bias but right now you’re looking at one of the most positive periods of the year.
On the geopolitical front things are heating up. The U.S. secretary of state gives a speech this morning outlining this administration’s plans for ending the Israel Pallestian issue once and for all.
This has the potential to further ignite the region so stay on top of it. In addition, Egypt leaked the transcript of a meeting between Rice, Kerry and the Pallestian authority some 10 days before the U.N. vote which claims the U.S. was directly behind the resolution at the U.N. and in addition advised them on how to proceed when the new administration takes over.
This also has the potential not only to ignite things on the geopolitical front but here at home also. How Congress deals with this revelation could affect the markets substantially.
Finally, the White House announced that they are close to implementing a retaliation against “Russian hacking” of our elections. This is interesting as none of the intelligence services will respond to the congressional inquiry regarding the alleged hacking.
This also has the potential to cause quite a bit of drama both home and abroad.
So with 3 weeks left in this administration’s time in office rather than deferring to the next administration so that the transition can go smoothly, the opposite is being done.
This will no doubt create a tumultuous time not only geopolitically and at home but also for investors as they try to discern the effect all of this will have on their portfolio.
My thought is that volatility will increase substantially soon as these issues start converging and the various dramas play themselves out.
Who needs to wait for the new season of Game of Thrones when you have real time intrigue playing out at home and on an international scale to entertain you.
My advice does not get consumed as an investor with all that is going on around the world and at home. However stay on top of it as the window to exit will be short if things take a turn for the worst or if the perception that things are deteriorating takes hold.
What is remarkable about this market is despite everything that has been going on and despite the fed raising rates with the added announcement of 3 rate hikes next year, it is still rising with very few pullbacks.
Do not get complacent in thinking the bull is going to go on forever. As I indicated my view is that unless the Fed reverses course on rate hikes next year we will see a substantial correction in this market by mid-2017. Let’s see how things play out:)
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks